SMITTY: Donte Moncrief is a great start with Hilton out.
SMITTY: Donte Moncrief is a great start with Hilton out.
SMITTY: He was thought to be near 50/50 according to some sources, but others, including Colts ESPN reporter Mike Wells, feel it would be a bit of a shock to see Hilton on the field given the Colts have already locked up the AFC South. Anything can happen though, so stay on both our news and Smart Alerts on this one. If he does sit, Donte Moncrief has all kinds of sneakiness to him heading into Week 16. Looking for Week 16 Power Rankings?
SMITTY: This is a tough spot to be in for all you TY Hilton owners out there, as the Colts have already clinched the AFC South. The Colts could be cautious with Hilton so that he is ready to rock in the playoffs. Stay on this via our news wire, and be certain to dial into our Smart Alerts in order to get updates on the receiver heading into kickoff (should news break). Looking for Week 16 Power Rankings?
SMITTY: It sounds like the team is just hopeful that Rashad Jennings will return for Week 11, so he could be out longer than expected. This makes Andre Williams an excellent low-end RB2 for at least two more weeks. A-Williams will start against the Colts tonight and he should have a strong outing just as long as the Giants can keep it close for at least a couple quarters. Expect Andrew Luck, TY Hilton, Ahmad Bradshaw, Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief to all have strong performances tonight — Luck is always 3TD-capable. Odell Beckham has the most appeal of those Giants WRs this week.
Watch/listen to Fantasy Football Starters’ CEO (Jeff) talk Week 8 on the “Sam Acho Show” that is always live on AZCentral.com. Jeff attacks topic like Start/Bench as well as Buy-Low/Sell-High.
SMITTY: What a fantasy contest this one was. Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards, 3TDs, and 1INT against the Texans in this Week 6 Thursday night battle, and TY Hilton pulled in 9 balls for 223 yards and a score. On the Texans’ side of the football, Andre Johnson pulled in 7 balls for 99 yards and a TD, while Arian Foster totled 109 rushing yards and 2TDs on 20 rushes (and pulled in 3 passes for 32 yards. While I love Hilton, and think he could continue to play at a high level, he isn’t a bad sell-high candidate coming off this one… same goes for Andre Johnson, whom I also like, but he could still be inconsistent this season, so test those trade waters using our Trade Analyzer. Also, looking for Week 6 Power Rankings?
According to ESPN, Jets RB Chris Johnson doesn’t expect to spend much time on the bench in Week 1. “At the end of the day, they wouldn’t have brought me in here if I wasn’t going to have a big role, if I wasn’t going to be a big part of this offense,” Johnson said Wednesday. “That’s something I’m not worried about. I’m not worried about my role and how it’s going to play out. As a free agent, they could’ve chosen a lot of different guys. They already had some guys in here that had some success. They weren’t going to bring me in here for no reason.”
SMITTY: I like Chris Johnson a lot at his late 5th- to early 6th-round ADP/value… that’s around players like DeSean Jackson, TY Hilton, Michael Crabtree… I’m not suggesting that any of those players aren’t solid, but the risk is low when it comes to CJ2K if you ask me… Looking for Chris Johnson Week 1 Power Rankings?
According to IndyStar.com, Colts WR Donte Moncief has “freakish athleticism” at 6-2, 221 pounds.
SMITTY: I love Donte Moncrief’s upside. He has size (6-2, 221 pounds) and speed (with a 40-time between 4.35-4.40). He could start out slow in terms of production, given he has a grip of decent receivers sitting in front of him, but none have his long-term ceiling. TY Hilton has nice upside for the now and the future, but he is more of high-end fantasy WR3 that can dance with WR2s on frequent occasions. That’s no knock on him, I’m a huge fan and supporter, and he is super-underrated right now (recent article). Moncrief just has that fantasy WR1-type ability, speed and size… while the team currently looks crowded at the position, Reggie Wayne is 35 (coming off knee surgery), Hakeem Nicks is a big talent, but he is on a one-year deal and he is super injury-prone. Da’Rick Rogers has some talent, no doubt, but his ceiling value doesn’t feel near Hilton’s, and it’s likely nowhere close to the value that Moncrief holds. Check out where we have all these Colts receivers ranked, as well as Andrew Luck (who is in for a breakout season) heading into 2014. Look for some Moncrief dynasty write-ups shortly.
Each and every fantasy football season, a group of third-year receivers finally reach their ultra-productive point. Fantasy worlds call these players the Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. Below is one that really stands out to me: T.Y. Hilton.
TY Hilton’s current ADP is at the back of the fifth-round at 58 overall. Hilton has shown an increase in production in each of his first two seasons, though his average yards-per-catch declined in 2013. Still, his overall stat line last year was 82/1083/5TDs, which proved to be a respectable WR2 (221 pts), and he was a 7th-round pick at that time (August of 2013).
We know the Colts are going to score points this coming year. A number of factors point to Hilton increasing his production in 2014. First, he falls into the “Third-Year WR Breakout” theory. Sometimes receivers breakout sooner, like AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, or Anquan Boldin in year’s past, and other times a receiver just needs two full seasons under his belt before reaching that next level of production (ex: Dez Bryant, who went from 63/928/9TDs during his second year to 92/1382/12 during his third-year breakout season). Now couple all that with consistency, as Hilton enters 2014 with the same coach, quarterback and quick-strike offense that he has matured in. Thirdly, he won’t face many double coverages in 2014 with notable peers Reggie Wayne and newly-acquired Hakeem Nicks requiring attention.
When Reggie Wayne went down last year, Hilton filled the void admirably, producing better-than-expected results, yet I still believe the loss of Wayne impeded Hilton’s overall production. I took note of a recent report that stated that Hilton was working out of all four wide-receiver position during the Colts’ mini-camp. This was interesting, as this could make it tough for defenses to scheme him from week to week, but of course this would also require the presence of a healthy Reggie Wayne, and/or a version of Hakeem Nicks that can adapt to the offense.
I have nothing but respect for Reggie Wayne, but I have a difficult time believing that a 35-year-old NFL wide receiver can be productive the season following knee surgery. History suggests a negative impact. I’m not sure where he is in his rehab, but at his age, he won’t be able to pull off what Adrian Peterson did, where he was running lateral drills in a sand pit 9 months removed from his LCL, ACL, and MCL surgery. Sorry, Reggie, I won’t expect that from a 35-year-old receiver. I will expect to see more of LaVon Brazill.
Where Hakeem Nicks will fit into that Colts’ offense remains to be seen. Staying healthy is still a concern for Nicks, but the combination of Wayne and Nicks is sure to leave Hilton in some good spots all over the field in 2014. Plus, I expect to see the Colts’ 3rd-round draft pick, Donte Moncrief, stretch the field often in 2014; he has both size and speed and should be a great red-zone target, even as a rookie.
Hilton might be sitting at #58 overall right now, but come August, I anticipate him moving up fantasy draft boards. Dynasty league owners should start trying to acquire him now while he maintains low trade value.
2014 Projections: I have T.Y Hilton pulling in 92 receptions for 1,250 yards and 9TDs this upcoming year.
Below are players already playing like studs and/or suspended:
• Alshon Jeffery (already broke out in 2013)
• Michael Floyd (already broke out in 2013)
• Josh Gordon (already broke out in 2014; facing possible suspension in 2014)
• Justin Blackmon WR, JAC (suspended indefinitely)
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