Archive for TY Hilton

NEWS: Chris Johnson does not expect to spend much time on bench in Week 1?

According to ESPN, Jets RB Chris Johnson doesn’t expect to spend much time on the bench in Week 1. “At the end of the day, they wouldn’t have brought me in here if I wasn’t going to have a big role, if I wasn’t going to be a big part of this offense,” Johnson said Wednesday. “That’s something I’m not worried about. I’m not worried about my role and how it’s going to play out. As a free agent, they could’ve chosen a lot of different guys. They already had some guys in here that had some success. They weren’t going to bring me in here for no reason.”

SMITTY: I like Chris Johnson a lot at his late 5th- to early 6th-round ADP/value… that’s around players like DeSean Jackson, TY Hilton, Michael Crabtree… I’m not suggesting that any of those players aren’t solid, but the risk is low when it comes to CJ2K if you ask me… Looking for Chris Johnson Week 1 Power Rankings?

NEWS: Donte Moncrief has freakish athleticism?

According to IndyStar.com, Colts WR Donte Moncief has “freakish athleticism” at 6-2, 221 pounds.

SMITTY: I love Donte Moncrief’s upside. He has size (6-2, 221 pounds) and speed (with a 40-time between 4.35-4.40). He could start out slow in terms of production, given he has a grip of decent receivers sitting in front of him, but none have his long-term ceiling. TY Hilton has nice upside for the now and the future, but he is more of high-end fantasy WR3 that can dance with WR2s on frequent occasions. That’s no knock on him, I’m a huge fan and supporter, and he is super-underrated right now (recent article). Moncrief just has that fantasy WR1-type ability, speed and size… while the team currently looks crowded at the position, Reggie Wayne is 35 (coming off knee surgery), Hakeem Nicks is a big talent, but he is on a one-year deal and he is super injury-prone. Da’Rick Rogers has some talent, no doubt, but his ceiling value doesn’t feel near Hilton’s, and it’s likely nowhere close to the value that Moncrief holds. Check out where we have all these Colts receivers ranked, as well as Andrew Luck (who is in for a breakout season) heading into 2014. Look for some Moncrief dynasty write-ups shortly.

Article: 2014 Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers

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Each and every fantasy football season, a group of third-year receivers finally reach their ultra-productive point. Fantasy worlds call these players the Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. Below is one that really stands out to me: T.Y. Hilton.

Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers

TY Hilton’s current ADP is at the back of the fifth-round at 58 overall. Hilton has shown an increase in production in each of his first two seasons, though his average yards-per-catch declined in 2013. Still, his overall stat line last year was 82/1083/5TDs, which proved to be a respectable WR2 (221 pts), and he was a 7th-round pick at that time (August of 2013).

We know the Colts are going to score points this coming year. A number of factors point to Hilton increasing his production in 2014. First, he falls into the “Third-Year WR Breakout” theory. Sometimes receivers breakout sooner, like AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, or Anquan Boldin in year’s past, and other times a receiver just needs two full seasons under his belt before reaching that next level of production (ex: Dez Bryant, who went from 63/928/9TDs during his second year to 92/1382/12 during his third-year breakout season). Now couple all that with consistency, as Hilton enters 2014 with the same coach, quarterback and quick-strike offense that he has matured in. Thirdly, he won’t face many double coverages in 2014 with notable peers Reggie Wayne and newly-acquired Hakeem Nicks requiring attention.

When Reggie Wayne went down last year, Hilton filled the void admirably, producing better-than-expected results, yet I still believe the loss of Wayne impeded Hilton’s overall production. I took note of a recent report that stated that Hilton was working out of all four wide-receiver position during the Colts’ mini-camp. This was interesting, as this could make it tough for defenses to scheme him from week to week, but of course this would also require the presence of a healthy Reggie Wayne, and/or a version of Hakeem Nicks that can adapt to the offense.

I have nothing but respect for Reggie Wayne, but I have a difficult time believing that a 35-year-old NFL wide receiver can be productive the season following knee surgery. History suggests a negative impact. I’m not sure where he is in his rehab, but at his age, he won’t be able to pull off what Adrian Peterson did, where he was running lateral drills in a sand pit 9 months removed from his LCL, ACL, and MCL surgery. Sorry, Reggie, I won’t expect that from a 35-year-old receiver. I will expect to see more of LaVon Brazill.

Where Hakeem Nicks will fit into that Colts’ offense remains to be seen. Staying healthy is still a concern for Nicks, but the combination of Wayne and Nicks is sure to leave Hilton in some good spots all over the field in 2014. Plus, I expect to see the Colts’ 3rd-round draft pick, Donte Moncrief, stretch the field often in 2014; he has both size and speed and should be a great red-zone target, even as a rookie.

Hilton might be sitting at #58 overall right now, but come August, I anticipate him moving up fantasy draft boards. Dynasty league owners should start trying to acquire him now while he maintains low trade value.

2014 Projections: I have T.Y Hilton pulling in 92 receptions for 1,250 yards and 9TDs this upcoming year.

Full List of 2014 Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers

Below are players already playing like studs and/or suspended:

Alshon Jeffery (already broke out in 2013)
Michael Floyd (already broke out in 2013)
Josh Gordon (already broke out in 2014; facing possible suspension in 2014)
• Justin Blackmon WR, JAC (suspended indefinitely)

  1. TY Hilton WR, IND
  2. Kendall Wright WR, TEN (semi breakout in 2013)
  3. Marvin Jones WR, CIN (semi breakout in 2013)
  4. Jarrett Boykin WR, GB
  5. Rueben Randle WR, NYG
  6. Jermaine Kearse WR, SEA
  7. Andre Holmes WR, OAK
  8. Stephen Hill WR, NYJ
  9. Rod Streater WR, OAK
  10. Cole Beasley WR, DAL
  11. Brian Quick WR STL
  12. Ryan Broyles WR, DET
  13. Mohamed Sanu WR, CIN

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