Archive for trade advice

Week 11 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 11 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant and more.

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 10 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 6 Buy Low Sell High

smitty staff

Below are some Buy Lows and Sell Highs heading into Week 6. If you are in need of some wins, considers selling high on a few players even if they might still continue their solid play.

Sell High

DeMarco Murray (RB/TEN) – As I said above, selling high doesn’t mean you predict bust, the player still might play well all season. But, when values are increased, sometimes you can make moves you normally cannot make. Murray was a 4th rounder in some cases, and given he is the No. 1 RB in fantasy football through 5 weeks, it’s time to consider selling high. I just got Odell Beckham in one league using the guy. Now, an argument can be made that Murray is worth ODB, but if I’m being honest with myself and ranking players for just Weeks 6-16, Murray is in the second-round. I have him high in the second, he is playing amazing football, but ODB (in a PPR) is in my top 5-7 overall still.

TY Hilton (WR/IND) – I love the guy, but he will have big games and bad games, sometimes that isn’t something a team needing wins can afford. Consider selling high and buy a struggling WR or RB.

Melvin Gordon (RB/SD) – Again, do not sell thinking he will fail moving forward, he is a beast and was a Bold Prediction of mine, so I believe in him moving forward, but his value is high despite his fumbles… he could potentially get you a struggling DeAndre Hopkins or Odell Beckham if you are in need of a WR. That is a huge sell high and great move (either WR).

Buy Low

Odell Beckham (WR/NYG) – The guy is a top 5WR, maybe even top 2-3, yet everyone is willing to give up on him after five weeks. He only has 1TD this year, but it came last week, and his breakout is on the way, just like Amari Cooper’s was entering Week 5. Buy low and get him at low first or high second round value, that’s how low his value seems to be!

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU) – Like ODB above, it’s amazing to see people undervalue a top 2-4WR after just five weeks. And, in his case, he has had two big-time games to go with some bad weeks, unlike ODB. Buy low, it’s madness to see him being ranked outside the top 10-12 overall, and I’ve seen this in serval cases in forum topics.

Lamar Miller (RB/HOU) – While there is a chance that Miller never gets the touches, his lowered value right now kind of builds in that risk. He has top 5RB upside moving forward, but is valued more in the 6-10 range for RBs. He’s worth the risk of getting at that 7-10RB value.

Week 5 Buy-Lows

smitty staff

As we head into the weekend of Week 5 of the 2016 fantasy football season, try pulling off a last minute trade for one of these undervalued players.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU)

After scoring one TD in each of his first two games this year, Hopkins has had a bad couple weeks in Weeks 3 and 4. However, it’s not like he has struggled all year long. Still, many are trying to sell him off quick, and I say take advantage. You may not get him for low-end WR type value, but I’ve seen some pretty bad trades happen already in forum topics… try buying a good half a tier below top 5WR value… he is easily a top 5WR moving forward if you ask me.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK)

He will be on this list every week until he explodes. He is a WR1, people, yet some are honestly asking if they should bench him this week. This is a sign that there is never a better time to buy low, even in dynasty, but especially in redraft!

Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI)/Jordan Howard (RB/CHI)/DeAndre Washington (RB/OAK)

All three of these guys could be hidden gems on the rise. Every year a RB comes almost out of nowhere, at least in a general sense of the term, and one of these RBs might be just that, if not two of the three. Washington is likely going to start Week 5, as Latavius Murray is expected to sit this one out. Smallwood could lose some carries to Ryan Mathews should he play Week 5, and Mathews is now expected to play, however, Smallwood could be the future in PHI, and he might get used a lot in this one. There is risk Mathews gets almost all the carries, so be careful starting Smallwood this week (he is safer as a stash/project in waiting). Jordan Howard is the player we like most, for now at least, as he has no one really competing for carries, as Langford is hurt. Howard looks good too, and he could be a monster steal from here on out. Congrats if you grabbed him back when we said to. If you can buy low on any of these guys, maybe in a multi-player deal, I say go for it. Sometimes multi-player deals dilute some players rising in value, as not many owners will just up and trade you one for one on a guy like Howard who is on the rise. You have to get creative with your offers and trade thinking.

Week 4 Buy Low / Sell High

smitty staff

In need of some Buy-Low/Sell-High candidates heading into Week 4 of the 2016 fantasy football season? Here are some names to both target and potentially sell-high.

Week 4: Buy-Low

Lamar Miller – With two mediocre Weeks in a row, some owners might be worried about Miller being a disappointment. Take advantage of this. Yes, he only rushed for 83 yards and only had 2 receptions for 14 yards and no TDs in Week 2, and 80 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0TDs in Week 3, but he is the team’s workhorse, and I think a breakout is right around the corner. The time to buy low is now or never, and it sound like you can, at times, get the runner at near third-round value if we were to toss a price tag on him.

Amari Cooper – After dropping 6/137/0TDs in Week 1, Coop has only pulled in 5/71/0TDs and 4/62/0TDs since. I fully expect the receiver to be a top 4-7WR moving forward. For more on his dynasty value, checkout my SleeperU Dynasty Write-up on the guy!

Allen Robinson – Like Cooper, a slightly disappointing start has some current ARob owners on edge. Try and get him for almost third-round value if tossing a value on him. It can be done. Maybe not in every league, as some owners just don’t trade at all no matter what. But, I’ve seen him had for even less heading into this week!

Brandin Cooks – He exploded in Week 1 with 6/143/2TDs, but went quiet in Weeks 2 and 3. Well, he is Brees’ secret weapon this year, and Brees is on fire. I’m sorry, two dud weeks in a row don’t scare me off from wanting this guy in every league at what will likely be value outside of the top 25 if we were to draft today. Trade for him at that value!

Week 4: Sell-High

Christine Michael (RB/SEA) – I cannot stress this enough… DO NOT sell-low or assume my advising to sell CMichael high means I don’t believe in the guy. I love the guy, and I hope he continues to get starter carries. But, fantasy football is a business, and if your team is hurting and you need wins, sometimes selling high allows you to repair and built back a disappointing team. See what you can get. Buy low on an an Allen Robinson if you need a WR, or go get an Amari Cooper. Those are just two examples.

Carlos Hyde (RB/SF) – I love his skill set, but staying healthy is a concern. So, I am NOT predicting injury or bust, I’m merely pointing out that his value is high and he is a good person to trade if you need to move pieces around to get wins.

Eddie Lacy (RB/GB) – He could continue to get carries, but selling high is just plain smart given Lacy has disappointed fantasy owners so many times in the past. And, with his still-heavy weight, injury is more likely than when he was a touch slimmer. Trade high!

Demaryius Thomas to decline in 2016?

If you own Demaryius Thomas in dynasty, it might be time to trade him. If you play in redraft, unless the price is right, it might be time to start avoiding him. DT use to be a second-round fantasy talent, and while it’s always possible he still cranks out that kind of production in 2016, he has a miserable QB situation in 2016 (Mark Sanchez, or overwhelmed rookie Paxton Lynch), he is 28 years old (turning 29 in December) and the team might plan to run more than ever in 2016. In dynasty, I wouldn’t suggest that anyone sell so low you are trading him in for a 6th- or 7th-round WR talent, but you might be able to get crafty and do a straight one-for-one swap for an underrated TY Hilton. Hilton is 26 and has a top 1-3 passer throwing him the football… this is the kind of ‘downgrade’ that seems feasible trade-wise, given the trade market values of both players, and it’s a great way to rebuild and plan for the future. And, in redraft, the two, Thomas and Hilton, have just about the exact ADP, so consider drafting a Hilton-type before you draft DT.

Note: The Draft Analyzer agrees with this doubting of DT, as it has the WR roughly ranked around 18-21 heading into 2016.

Other names to consider over Demaryius Thomas, regardless of position:

  • Jarvis Landry MIA
  • Jeremy Langford CHI RB
  • Andrew Luck IND QB
  • Aaron Rodgers GB QB

Dynasty: AJ Green a good buy-low?

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Smitty is the owner of SleeperU.com, which now proudly powers STARTERS’ Dynasty Content.

Dynasty Player of the Week

Buy-Low: AJ Green

It’s actually head-scratching how undervalued AJ Green is right now in dynasty. His ADP in all formats, redraft and dynasty, has now entered the 2nd-round, which is awesome news if you’re crafty and looking to trade. Often times in dynasty leagues, fantasy owners think too far into the future. Green, turning 28 this July, is still capable of being a top 1-5 fantasy WR during any give season, and given WRs usually can play at an elite level through 32, he still has 3-4 years left as a player that can drop top 5ish fantasy wide receiver numbers. That’s a long time in dynasty, 3-4 years, yet so many focus on only obtaining players that are 23 and 24 years old. This approach often has fantasy owners rarely winning titles, as they are always chasing ‘the build’ of their team. One strategy I’ve used as of late, in leagues where I needed to shake things up, is to trade a top 1-3 ranked receiver, like an Odell Beckham, for an undervalued AJ Green, thus allowing me to ask for a nice upgrade elsewhere. It won’t fly now, but I was able to upgrade my 1.03 to the 1.01 using this so called ‘downgrade’ to AJ Green. Now I own Ezekiel Elliott because of that move. Again, that’s not a move anyone would do now, as the 1.01 has now become Elliott, but you get the point and you see how one can turn a so called ‘downgrade’ into something more. Believe in AJG, he still has tier one WR appeal for a handful of years!

Bounce-Back Players for 2016

Below are a list of just a few bounce-back fantasy football candidates heading into the 2016 NFL fantasy football season. Have a few names you want to toss out? Comment below!

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has reportedly lost 15-18 pounds since the end of last year. Some are even suggesting that he will enter 2016 in the best shape of his life. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him, but if he can be had at RB2 value entering 2016, and currently that’s the case, he has bounce-back written all over him.

Jordy Nelson

Another Packer with bounce-back written all over him. Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit last year, as did the Packers, and one reason is that Rodgers lost Jordy. Jordy is always underrated, but coming off injury, he is more likely to get overlooked than ever. Buy-low, at least until his ADP climbs back into stud range, and it may. Once it does, then he is a tad risky and the appeal is somewhat lost.

Andrew Luck

Most expect a bounce-back, but given that he and Aaron Rodgers both struggled last year, and now with Brady again looking at a 4-game suspension, QBs might fall further than they should in 2016. Take advantage, as Luck (and Rodgers) both have top 10 overall value, it’s just that QBs are waited on in almost every veteran fantasy football draft. At 3rd- and 4th-round value, we say don’t wait, be the one to snag either QB.

Jamaal Charles

He should bounce-back from injury nicely, for at least one season. Don’t spend a top 5RB pick on him, but if you can get him near 2nd-round value, or particularly at 2nd-round value, strike!

DeMarco Murray

Risky, sure, especially with a new team (TEN); however, he is still top 5-10RB skilled, and TEN wanted him, which is a change from his situation in PHI last year. His ADP is in the 3rd/4th, so the risk is very low, whereas the reward is 1st-round possible.

Two Players to Buy-Low For 2016?

Jay Ajayi | RB Dolphins

With Lamar Miller likely playing elsewhere in 2016, the Dolphins could turn to Jay Ajayi. Now, it’s important to call him a sleeper, not a sure bet, so don’t treat him as such, meaning do not buy-high or draft him, or trade for him, at stud levels. He is a sleeper! The Dolphins believe in him and he looks like an every-down back. His YPG weren’t impressive on the year last year, but if you watched him run, he has the ability to grind it out between the tackles and he has a smoothness to his game. We truly believe he will thrive if the Dolphins both do not retain Miller and do not draft a big name rusher (or acquire one through free agency), both possible. Stay tuned on this one, but scooping this runner up on the cheap in dynasty/keeper leagues is advised.

Andrew Luck | QB Colts

It’s easy to want to avoid Luck in 2016, as he frustrated so many all year long in 2015. Not only did he play below mediocre for much of the year, he got hurt around mid-season and did not return. He failed many. That said, it’s important to remember that he threw for 4761 yards and 40TDs the year prior (adding 3TDs rushing), and he is easily capable of 4500/38+TDs during any given season. He is 2nd-round worthy, but luckily his ADP (in redraft) is in the 3rd- to 4th-round range, which is STEAL territory. In redraft, if he continues to go in the late 3rd- or 4th-round, he will arguably be one of the biggest steals of 2016 drafts. The same can be said of Aaron Rodgers. Even if his value rises back in the 3rd and locks in, that’s still great value, yes, even if you can grab guys like Bortles rounds later. A 40TD QB in the 3rd or 4th is crazy good value. In dynasty, see if you can get close to this value… if so, strike a trade!

ARTICLE: Week 12 Buy-Low & Sell-High Players!

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Ready for some Week 12 Buy-Low/Sell-High players?

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