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Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

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Here at STARTERS, the famous Draft Analyzer is key to helping you create custom Cheat Sheets for your draft. The tool factors in projections, previous year’s stats, trending, etc, so be sure to use it when getting ready for your draft. However, last year I created my own stand-alone set of Rankings, and while they might differ from the Draft Analyzer here and there, I think it’s important to take a bit of variation with you to your draft! So enjoy, this is my personal set of 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings. For Dynasty Rankings, check out Smitty’s Dynasty Content over at SleeperU.

Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

Updated: 8/27/16 (these rankings are only updated through Week 1)

QBs

1 Aaron Rodgers
2 Andrew Luck
3 Cam Newton
4 Blake Bortles
5 Drew Brees
6 Russell Wilson
7 Derek Carr
8 Carson Palmer
9 Ben Roethlisberger
10 Tom Brady
11 Eli Manning
12 Philip Rivers
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TEs

1 Rob Gronkowski
2 Greg Olsen
3 Delanie Walker
4 Jordan Reed
5 Travis Kelce
6 Tyler Eifert
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RBs

1 Todd Gurley
2 David Johnson
3 Devonta Freeman
4 Adrian Peterson
5 Ezekiel Elliott
6 Lamar Miller
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WRs

1 Julio Jones
2 Antonio Brown
3 DeAndre Hopkins
4 Odell Beckham
5 Amari Cooper
6 Allen Robinson
7 Dez Bryant
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ADP (Average Draft Positions) Update – July

As we do every month, we have compiled some ADP from some of the more trusted ADP sources on the web.

Undervalued

At a glance, you have to love the ADP values of: Devonta Freeman (17), Amari Cooper (22), Aaron Rodgers (32), Andrew Luck (48), Jeremy Langford (45), Blake Bortles (83)

Overvalued

You have to be cautious with players ranking too high, like: Eddie Lacy (18), Thomas Rawls (28), Kelvin Benjamin (31), Latavius Murray (38)

1 Antonio Brown WR PIT
2 Todd Gurley RB LA
4 Julio Jones WR ATL
3 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
5 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
6 David Johnson RB ARI
7 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
8 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
9 A.J. Green WR CIN
11 Lamar Miller RB HOU
12 Dez Bryant WR DAL
13 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
10 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
16 Allen Robinson WR JAC
14 Jamaal Charles RB KC
17 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
15 Jordy Nelson WR GB
18 Eddie Lacy RB GB
19 Keenan Allen WR SD
20 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
21 Mike Evans WR TB
22 Amari Cooper WR OAK
23 Doug Martin RB TB
25 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
24 Mark Ingram RB NO
26 Brandin Cooks WR NO
27 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
28 Thomas Rawls RB SEA
29 Cam Newton QB CAR
31 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
30 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
32 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
33 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
34 Matt Forte RB NYJ
36 CJ Anderson RB DEN
35 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
37 Randall Cobb WR GB
39 Carlos Hyde RB SF
40 Jarvis Landry WR MIA
41 Julian Edelman WR NE
42 DeMarco Murray RB TEN
43 Jordan Reed TE WAS
44 Golden Tate WR DET
45 Jeremy Langford RB CHI
48 Andrew Luck QB IND
46 Dion Lewis RB NE
47 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
38 Latavius Murray RB OAK
49 Matt Jones RB WAS
51 Russell Wilson QB SEA
50 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
53 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
52 Greg Olsen TE CAR
54 Michael Floyd WR ARI
55 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
57 Donte Moncrief WR IND
58 Allen Hurns WR JAC
56 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
59 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
60 Drew Brees QB NO
61 Jay Ajayi RB MIA
62 Eric Decker WR NYJ
65 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
64 Frank Gore RB IND
66 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
67 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
68 Tyler Eifert TE CIN
63 Chris Ivory RB JAC
69 Melvin Gordon RB SD
70 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
72 Travis Kelce TE KC
73 Duke Johnson RB CLE
74 DeVante Parker WR MIA
75 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
76 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT
77 John Brown WR ARI
78 Delanie Walker TE TEN
71 Tom Brady QB NE
79 Tyler Lockett WR SEA
80 Carson Palmer QB ARI
81 Justin Forsett RB BAL
82 Danny Woodhead RB SD
83 Blake Bortles QB JAC
84 Coby Fleener TE NO
85 Arian Foster RB HOU
86 Kevin White WR CHI
87 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
88 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
89 Michael Crabtree WR OAK
90 Ladarius Green TE PIT
91 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
92 Eli Manning QB NYG
93 Marvin Jones WR DET
94 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
95 Derrick Henry RB TEN
96 Gary Barnidge TE CLE
97 Sterling Shepard WR NYG
98 Philip Rivers QB SD
99 Charles Sims RB TB
100 Markus Wheaton WR PIT
101 Julius Thomas TE JAC
102 Denver Defense DEF DEN
103 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
104 Derek Carr QB OAK
105 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
106 Corey Coleman WR CLE
107 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
108 Steve Smith WR BAL
109 Torrey Smith WR SF

The 2016 Draft Analyzer and Cheat Sheets are ready!

ffs-draft-analyzer

It’s that time! Yep, the 2016 Draft Analyzer is ready, which means you can now start creating your custom Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets for all of your leagues!

Like every year, the Draft Analyzer identifies a lot of players that are likely to outperform expectations, as the tool is driven by data trending, projections, injury concerns, and more. We will be breaking down some of the high-rankings players each week, starting with the Wide Receivers. So, start creating those 2016 Cheat Sheets, and also read our first write-up on the high-ranking players that the Analyzer is calling big seasons for:

Load Draft Analyzer
Read: Draft Analyzer WRs That Rank High

What WRs are jumping out on the 2016 Draft Analyzer Rankings?

Allen Robinson | JAC

(ranked inside 2-3 for WRs)

Depending on your scoring settings, Allen Robinson is likely getting top 3WR love from the 2016 Draft Analyzer. Of course, don’t draft him that high, as his ADP is around 2.01 -2.03, which right around the 6th- to 7th-ranked WR in most drafts. Use ADPs to your advantage while realizing that the Draft Analyzer is seeing some overwhelmingly-positive data-driven things in Robinson heading into 2016.

More WRs Ranking High on the Draft Analyzer

Brandin Cooks – NO – He is currently ranking in inside the top 8-11 for WRs on the Draft Analyzer, depending on your entered league scoring. There is a lot to like about Cooks, and certainly use his third-round ADP to your advantage. He is roughly the 14th-16th ranked WR in most any draft, so be sure to draft him there, but understand that the Analyzer is calling for a big season out of the guy.

Jarvis Landry – MIA – He is definitely a breakout candidate, and the Analyzer is ranking him near the top 9-11 for WRs. Again, as said above, this is higher than his ADP, by about 5-7 WR spots, so use ADPs to your advantage and just know that the Analyzer is predicting big things out of Landry in 2016.

Allen Hurns – JAC – As with Landry and Cooks, Hurns is ranking in, according to the Draft Analyzer, near the top 10-13 for WRs in 2016. This is about 2-3 rounds higher than his ADP, which has him coming in around the 18th-21st ranked WR in an average draft. Expect big things, but draft accordingly and not too early.

Randall Cobb – GB – A forgotten man, Cobb should rebound in 2016, as will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cobb is right around the 15th-18th ranked WR in most any mock draft, but the Analyzer is calling for a top 10-12 fantasy season. Use this info to your advantage, but draft as low as you can, as the ADPs suggest you can.

Updated 2016 ADP (End of May Edition)

It’s important to constantly look at updated ADP Data, and we will have updates in both June and July for this. Here is the final May Redraft edition of 2016 ADP Data for the 2016 fantasy football season.

ADP Data 2016

  1. Antonio Brown WR PIT
  2. Todd Gurley RB LA
  3. LeVeon Bell RB PIT
  4. Julio Jones WR ATL
  5. Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
  6. Adrian Peterson RB MIN
  7. David Johnson RB ARI
  8. DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
  9. Rob Gronkowski TE NE
  10. Dez Bryant WR DAL
  11. Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
  12. Allen Robinson WR JAC
  13. Jamaal Charles RB KC
  14. A.J. Green WR CIN
  15. Devonta Freeman RB ATL
  16. Jordy Nelson WR GB
  17. Lamar Miller RB HOU
  18. Eddie Lacy RB GB
  19. Thomas Rawls RB SEA
  20. Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
  21. Amari Cooper WR OAK
  22. Doug Martin RB TB
  23. Mike Evans WR TB
  24. Mark Ingram RB NO
  25. Keenan Allen WR SD
  26. Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
  27. LeSean McCoy RB BUF
  28. Matt Forte RB NYJ
  29. Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
  30. Sammy Watkins WR BUF
  31. Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
  32. Brandin Cooks WR NO
  33. Julian Edelman WR NE
  34. Jeremy Langford RB CHI
  35. Aaron Rodgers QB GB
  36. Cam Newton QB CAR
  37. CJ Anderson RB DEN
  38. T.Y. Hilton WR IND
  39. Jordan Reed TE WAS
  40. DeMarco Murray RB TEN
  41. Jarvis Landry WR MIA
  42. Andrew Luck QB IND
  43. Carlos Hyde RB SF
  44. Randall Cobb WR GB
  45. Matt Jones RB WAS
  46. Golden Tate WR DET
  47. Doug Baldwin WR SEA
  48. Tyler Eifert TE CIN
  49. Dion Lewis RB NE
  50. Jeremy Hill RB CIN
  51. Greg Olsen TE CAR
  52. Jeremy Maclin WR KC
  53. Ryan Mathews RB PHI
  54. Allen Hurns WR JAC
  55. Jay Ajayi RB MIA
  56. Russell Wilson QB SEA
  57. Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
  58. Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
  59. Melvin Gordon RB SD
  60. Travis Kelce TE KC
  61. Jordan Matthews WR PHI
  62. Tom Brady QB NE
  63. Chris Ivory RB JAC
  64. Delanie Walker TE TEN
  65. Ameer Abdullah RB DET
  66. Latavius Murray RB OAK
  67. Eric Decker WR NYJ
  68. Drew Brees QB NO
  69. Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
  70. TJ Yeldon RB JAC
  71. DeVante Parker WR MIA
  72. Michael Floyd WR ARI
  73. Blake Bortles QB JAC
  74. Frank Gore RB IND
  75. Steve Smith WR BAL
  76. Giovani Bernard RB CIN
  77. Carson Palmer QB ARI
  78. Coby Fleener TE NO
  79. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI

Where to rank Ezekiel Elliott amongst 2016 running backs?

Everyone knows that Ezekiel Elliott is the top-ranked rookie heading into any 2016 rookie-only fantasy football draft. He is the top dog, no question. But, how good can he be right away? Many expect top 4-8RB numbers in time, but can he be that good in just his first season? We say yes. It’s safe to assume, that if healthy, he is going to see the kind of workload in Dallas that could have him producing 1,000-1,200 rushing yards, 25-30 receptions for 300-400 yards and near double-digit touchdowns. It’s tough to expect that out of any rookie rusher, as they often times hit a rookie wall near Weeks 11-14. However, this offensive line in Dallas is elite, and the offense will be more well-rounded than last year, so much so that even if Tony Romo misses some time here or there, the rushing game will help keep defenses honest, something that couldn’t always be said last year. Don’t draft Elliott as a top 5-8RB in 2016, as his ADP is more in the middle-to-late second-round. If you draft him higher than you need to, you limit the upside and ceiling potential and you increase the risk (should he get hurt, or struggle early on).

2016 Rookie Rankings (Post Draft)

Below are our post-draft 2016 Rookie Rankings. We still rounds 4-7 to go, so note that some of the players ranked below could jump up, or down, depending on what team drafts them, or doesn’t draft them, in rounds 4-7. An example of a guy who could jump high is Kenneth Dixon, or even Devontae Booker.

Top Fantasy Football Rankings – Post Draft

  1. Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL – He couldn’t have landed in a better spot. He has top 5RB upside for the future and possibly top 5-10 upside for 2016.
  2. Corey Coleman WR CLE – Very talented, he just needs consistent QB play, which may or may not happen in CLE.
  3. Josh Doctson WR WAS – Also very talented. Great landing spot.
  4. Laquon Treadwell WR MIN – Not elite speed wise but if he gets enough targets, which is questionable in MIN, he could develop into a solid NFL wide receiver in 2-3 years.
  5. Derrick Henry RB TEN – Horrible landing spot, as DeMarco Murray is the main man in TEN.
  6. Will Fuller WR HOU – Decent spot, but given Hopkins is a top 1-3 fantasy WR, it’s tough seeing Fuller ever becoming a stud in fantasy.
  7. Kenneth Dixon RB TBA – Hopefully he lands in a good spot in rounds 4-7. If not, he could drop on these rankings. He could also climb high if he finds a great situation. Sleeper!
  8. Carson Wentz QB PHI – Solid situation, good talent. Not sure he is ever going to be a top 5 fantasy QB, though.
  9. Jared Goff QB LA – Same thing said about Wentz goes here.
  10. Paxton Lynch QB DEN – He excites us a touch more than the other two QBs above, but he is more raw and could take longer to develop.
  11. CJ Prosise RB SEA – Not a great spot, but Rawls isn’t exactly a for sure – yet.
  12. Devontae Booker RB TBA – Could be huge if he gets drafted into the right spot in rounds 4-7, or he could drop off the map if drafted as a total backup.
  13. Alex Collins RB TBA – Where will he go? If drafted into a good spot, he jumps a ton! Sleeper!
  14. Michael Thomas WR NO – Good spot, good talent.
  15. Kenyan Drake RB MIA – Good spot, but we don’t love his upside, so this is a good thing for Jay Ajayi.
  16. Tyler Boyd WR CIN – Not elite.
  17. Sterling Shepard WR NYG – Not likely elite.
  18. Braxton Miller WR HOU – Crowded situation.
  19. Leonte Carroo WR MIA – Solid talent, but very, very crowded situation.
  20. The Rest

  21. Keith Marshall RB TBA
  22. Christian Hackenberg QB NYJ
  23. Wendell Smallwood RB TBA
  24. Deandre Washington RB TBA
  25. Hunter Henry TE SD
  26. Austin Hooper TE ATL

Ranking the top 20 Dynasty RBs

Below are our Top 20 Fantasy Football Dynasty Running Backs for 2016. If you feel someone is out of place, or missing, post a comment below!

Tier One

Todd Gurley – The clear top rusher heading into 2016 and beyond.
Le’veon Bell – A case could be made for him being equal to Gurley, but the injury has to have him slightly below when all is said and done. He is easily top 1-5 overall worthy, though.
David Johnson – Capable of being a top 1-3RB, but should be valued near the 3-6RB range in order to still get some value out of his draft value.
Devonta Freeman – He comes with risk of the unknown, but he still has top 2-5RB appeal, so being ranked at the bottom of this group is safe, and if you can get him even later in a draft/trade, even safer!

Tier Two

Lamar Miller – Capable of being in the bottom of the above tier when all is said and done in 2016, but this is a safe place to rank him.
Doug Martin – Top 4-7RB appeal for sure but little risk around this range.
LeSean McCoy – Same said about Martin above can be said here.
Demarco Murray – Same said about Martin and McCoy above can be said here.
CJ Anderson – A mixed amount of risk and upside with CJ right here. Denver is paying him big, so by default, it’s time to not doubt the workload and just evaluate his talent, and middle of the road RB2 value seems right.
Eddie Lacy – Capable of low-end tier one upside, so this is low risk. He shouldn’t be bought higher, the risk is big if his asking price/draft value climbs.
Carlos Hyde – Huge upside, and maybe even RB1-type upside, but the risk of Chip Kelly not using him near as much as he should, that’s why he is ranked so low, and rightly so. He is a great breakout candidate for 2016 but at the right price, like this kind of price.
Adrian Peterson – Even though he might have just one to two years left at an elite level, his ability to be a top 1-5RB in 2016 makes it tough to rank him even this low, dynasty or not.

The rest..

Tier Three & Four Players

Thomas Rawls
Jeremy Langford
Mark Ingram
Jeremy Hill
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte
Matt Jones
Tj Yeldon
Melvin Gordon
Jay Ajayi
Duke Johnson
Buck Allen
Giovani Bernard
Latavius Murray
Arian Foster

Ranking the Top 20 Dynasty QBs

Who are the Top 25 Dynasty Quarterbacks right now?

Top Dogs by Tier

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers – Only the guy below him holds near the same value, especially in leagues that award 6 points per TD.
2. Andrew Luck – He had a bad 2015, but he is just as elite and long-term valuable as A-Rod. No QBs below these two hold first-round value. Note, neither should be grabbed in even the second-round, though, as the ADPs of both Luck and Rodgers are in the 3rd-round (at the earliest), which is awesome news.

Tier Two

3. Blake Bortles – Big upside, but some risk in this 3-5 range, which is where you’ll need to grab him moving forward.
4. Russell Wilson – Not a ton of risk given he is proven and has an ADP a round or two below the two top dogs above.
5. Cam Newton – Again, not a ton of risk here, and he too, like Wilson, is going a round or two below A-Rod and Luck.

Tier Three

6. Tom Brady – In dynasty, there is great value in grabbing one of Brady or Brees, as they can be elite for 1-2 more years. Even if just 1 year, it’s great value, as these guys are falling so far. Not every draft selection in dynasty has to be for the future. Veteran picks like Brady or Brees can win leagues if acquired at ADP values.
7. Drew Brees – Everything said about Brees above applies here.
8. Marcus Mariota – Great upside. If you can get him in the 6-8 range, the risk isn’t too bad.
9. Ben Roethlisberger – Injury risk, sure, but in the 8-10 range, the risk is still low given the potential.
10. Kirk Cousins – Here is the question mark of this top 10… is he going to be elite, or will he disappoint? It’s tough to say, but in the 8ish range, the risk is low enough to invest. If his value climbs into the 4-6 range, we’d have some concerns.
10. Derek Carr – He has top 4-6 appeal, so this is great value, and most rankings have him right here and no higher. By default, given the depth of the QB pool right now, the risk is minimized for sure.
12. Jameis Winston – Good value.

The Next Group

Tier Four

13. Tony Romo
14. Sam Bradford
15. Matt Ryan
16. Eli Manning
17. Brock Osweiler
18. Teddy Bridgewater
19. Ryan Tannehill
20. Tyrod Taylor

The Rest

Carson Palmer
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Andy Dalton
Joe Flacco
Colin Kaepernick
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jay Cutler
Blaine Gabbert
Alex Smith
Johnny Manziel
Nick Foles

And the No. 1 overall pick in 2016 is….?

Now that the off-season is here, it is time to discuss who is the leading candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in August of 2016. If you had to draft today, who would you select with the first overall pick in a 2016 fantasy football draft? Here are the top options in order of who we’d roll with.

1.01 – Todd Gurley (STL/RB): Honestly, it’s hard to argue against any of the players below, and any of the players listed below might be in the discussion for the No. 1 overall pick come August, 2016. Still, Gurley showed flashes of the kind of runner that can have those occasional 2-3TD games, and those 150+ rushing performances. He is so dynamic, and he should only get better, stronger (from his ACL recovery) heading into this upcoming year.

1.02 – LeVeon Bell (PIT/RB): His health (PCL/MCL surgery) this off-season will steer his value, but having to guess now, we think it’s pretty safe to say he will be good to go for 2016. When healthy and on the field, Bell can be just as good as Gurley. Last year’s injury (MCL/PCL) is the only reason he isn’t tied for the 1.01.

1.03 – Antonio Brown (PIT/WR): As we said above, a case can be made for Brown going 1.01, especially in PPR. This is personal preference. If you’re a good running back draft, like in middle rounds, then you might lean Brown at 1.01. If you tend to struggle during years where you try going cheap at RB, then you might consider both Gurley and Bell before you consider the top receiver… there are no bad picks in this top 6 overall.

1.04 – Julio Jones (ATL/WR): Everything just said above under Antonio Brown can be said here.

1.05 – Devonta Freeman (ATL/WR): A case can be made that there is a lot of risk here, but a case can also be made that he is the No. 1 overall pick. Because of the risk, he falls near the bottom of this group of six, but again, that’s not a bad thing, as this group of six is all 1.01 worthy.

1.06 – DeAndre Hopkins (HOU/WR): He proved this year he can outscore any WR on any given Sunday. His QB situation isn’t as strong as any of the WRs above, which is the only reason he isn’t right up there with both Brown and Jones.