Archive for Michael Floyd

SUNDAY NEWS: Live Feed All Day Long (Week 2)

This Week 2 Sunday News topic will be updated all Sunday long!!!

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News: 9/14 (07:18pm) Ryan Mathews was carted off the field in Week 2 against the Seahawks; the injury is thought to be a knee/leg injury.
Take: Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown are currently the next players up. We will keep you posted, but getting carted off is not a good sign. This has always been the risk with Mathews and a big reason why he was always ranked so low on my dynasty and redraft rankings. Stay tuned.


News: 9/14 (07:18pm) According to Adam Schefter on Twitter, both Bears WRs Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall will be active tonight.
Take: It seems like both are a go, but keep tabs on the game at kickoff, as setbacks can happen in warm-ups. Just stay on top of it, and one way is to sign-up for Smart Alerts.


News: 9/14 (04:47pm) Jamaal Charles is now headed to the locker room.
Take: The good news is that he was walking to the locker room, not being driven, but he had a bit of a limp. It’s thought to be his foot. Knile Davis should be grabbed in all leagues if your league allows for instant add/drops. Charles owners likely own the backup already, but if not, be certain to grab him ASAP. Stay tuned. Smart Alerts will update you in real-time on this, so be sure to sign up!


News: 9/14 (04:40pm) Jamaal Charles is on the sideline having his foot looked at.
Take: Stay tuned on this one, hopefully he is back in the game shortly.


News: 9/14 (03:23pm) The Broncos have declared WR Cody Latimer inactive for Week 2 against the Chiefs.
Take: This is a healthy scratch, which is interesting given that Wes Welker (suspended) is still out. Folks, if you need a sleeper WR3 this week, Andre Caldwell is your guy! He will have plenty of run and opportunity this week.


News: 9/14 (03:01pm) Robert Griffin III has a dislocated ankle according to NFL Red Zone.
Take: This won’t help the “Kirk Cousins is better” movement that won’t seem to go away. The injury looked bad, and he was carted off the field, so don’t expect RG3 back anytime soon. Even if he is iffy to return soon, you have to think Washington will rest him longer than usual so that they can quietly give Kirk Cousins a proper run, as he deserves it. Stay tuned, and sign up for Smart Alerts to get real-time alerts on this.


News: 9/14 (03:00pm) Antonio Gates (hamstring) is active for Week 2 against the Seahawks.
Take: Ladrius Green owners were hoping that Gates would miss this one, but Green is still a decent high-end TE2 option until his playing time gets a bump. Given how Gates is older and always kinda banged up, buying low on Green (especially in dynasty) is a good idea.


News: 9/14 (02:31pm) Robert Griffin III was forced from Week 2 with an ankle injury; he will not return.
Take: Sign up for Smart Alerts to get real-time alerts on this.


News: 9/14 (02:31pm) DeSean Jackson was forced from Week 2 with a shoulder injury; he will not return.
Take: Jackson was attempting to pull in a deep pass from Kirk Cousins when he got hurt. Andre Roberts has replaced him in the line-up. Stay tuned.


News: 9/14 (02:31pm) A.J. Green was forced from Week 2 with a toe injury; he will not return.
Take: This is horrible news, especially since the injury has bothered Green all week. His Week 3 status is very much in question. Mohamed Sanu is now the top receiving option for the Bengals for the remainder of today.


News: 9/14 (01:08pm) Dez Bryant is headed to the locker room due to a head injury, or shoulder injury.
Take: We will keep you posted. Hopefully, like Antonio Brown on Thursday, Dez runs back out onto the field soon. Stay tuned.


News: 9/14 (12:59pm) Bobby Rainey is expected to start Week 2 against the Rams. Fox’s Jay Glazer is reporting that Doug Martin (ankle) is inactive for Week 2.
Take: Rainey is a decent desperate start for those who just lost Martin, but get on our forums if you have a dilemma and need some quick help!


News: 9/14 (12:35pm) Tom Krasniqi of 620 WDAE in Tampa Bay just tweeted this: “The feeling I’m getting is that #Bucs RB Doug Martin is UNLIKELY to play today. Regardless, expect to see a lot of Bobby Rainey.”
Take: Keep in mind that other sources suggest that Martin will play, and we cannot yet confirm that the above tweet holds more water. Just walk into this situation carefully, and know that Rainey might see a lot of action regardless of whether or not Martin plays. The good news is that the Bucs play in the late games today, but the bad news is many have to decide before the morning games kickoff. Stay tuned and sign up for Smart Alerts to get real-time alerts on this.


News: 9/14 (12:19pm) Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has a “hunch” that one of Alshon Jeffery/Brandon Marshall plays on Sunday night against the 49ers.
Take: Word over the last hour has been that there is a “75%” chance neither Brandon Marshall (ankle) or Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) plays Sunday night against the 49ers, but everyone is doing their best job guessing on this one. We won’t know for sure until game-time, but my guess also is that one will play. Marshall looked like the one with the better shot to play earlier in the week, so my guess, and it is a guess at this point, is that if only one goes it will be Marshall. If either WR misses Week 2, and especially if both do, look for Jay Cutler to provide less fantasy points than expected. Matt Forte will be used heavily in Week 2, which is good for all Forte owners. Stay tuned!Stay tuned! And, sign up for Smart Alerts to get real-time alerts on this.


News: 9/14 (12:19pm) Tim Wright could be used more in Week 2.
Take: Playing Wright could be one of the sneakier moves of the week (just don’t bench a stud for the guy, we’re talking more of a spot start play of the week here). He isn’t even the team’s second or third receiving option, but he has TD potential, which makes him sneaky for those in need at the tight end position (like if you lost Jordan Cameron this week and have very little options on waivers).


News: 9/14 (12:01pm) Kenny Stills (quad) is officially active for his Week 2 contest the Browns.
Take: Stills has big-play ability, but can have a big TD one game, and nothing the next week. Use him only in large leagues knowing he is uncontrollably hot and cold.


News: 9/14 (12:01pm) DET has declared both WR Ryan Broyles and WR Kevin Ogletree as inactive for Week 2.
Take: Neither should have been starting in any format.


News: 9/14 (12:01pm) Aaron Dobson is active for his Week 2 game with the Vikings; rookie RB James White and WR Kenbrell Thompkins are inactive.
Take: Dobson could have some appeal later on in the year, but not quite yet, not until he proves healthy.


News: 9/14 (11:49am) Cecil Shorts (hamstring) has been declared inactive for Sunday’s Week 1 contest against the Redskins.
Take: Allen Hurns again enters another week as the top Jaguars receiving option. He is a fine fantasy WR3 this week.


News: 9/14 (11:48am) Sources suggest that Austin Davis will be the Rams’ starting quarterback in Week 2.
Take: Not a huge surprise, but note there is still a small, small chance a change could be made (meaning Hill starts) last-minute. For now, Davis looks like the starter, and our Analyzer/Rankings have been updated to reflect this. Neither was a recommended start of any kind this week (unless you play in a HUGE 2QB league — In that case, Drew Stanton is an option for you if you’re desperate, but again, only in HUGE 2QB leagues would we even consider starting either Davis or Stanton.


News: 9/14 (11:47am) Jordan Cameron (shoulder) is inactive for Week 2 against the Saints.
Take: Horrible news. Get him out of your lineups if you have him starting. Jump on our forums for advice on last-minute replacements. Quick names include: Ladarius Green (SD), Delanie Walker (TEN), Travis Kelce (KC), Larry Donnell (NYG).


News: 9/14 (11:45am) Adam Schefter of ESPN has confirmed that Andre Ellington (foot) is expected to play against the Giants in Week 2.
Take: No surprise here, and with Palmer out, Ellington could see a lot of run. Hopefully that Cards passing attack can keep the Giants’ defense a touch honest.


News: 9/14 (11:45am) Word is that Cam Newton (ribs) will have “no limitations” in Week 2 against the Lions.
Take: He could be rusty in this one, but he certainly has the talent to drop top 5-10 fantasy QB numbers during any start he makes.


News: 9/14 (11:45am)A.J. Green (foot) is officially active for his Week 2 contest against the Falcons.
Take: Green is ready to have a huge Week 2. Great news.


News: 9/14 (11:45am) Giants declared WR Odell Beckham inactive for Week 2.
Take: Not a recommended start anyway. But, Victor Cruz should be in for a lot of targets in this one.


News: 9/14 (11:40am) DeAngelo Williams (thigh) is inactive for Week 2 against the Lions.
Take: Get Williams out of your line-up if you have him in your line-up. Jonathan Stewart is a decent play if you are desperate at the position. Mike Tolbert will also get some run, and possibly the TD action.


News: 9/14 (11:35am) Sources are reporting that Carson Palmer (shoulder) will not play in Sunday’s Week 2 contest against the Giants.
Take: Palmer is dealing with some nerve issues in the shoulder after taking a hit last Monday night. Not that Stanton can’t surprise, this is clearly bad for both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. Stanton has four career starts to his name. Could it have a negative impact on Andre Ellington? Sure, but it’s also possible that the Cards run more in this one, and they could have success. For the long-term, Ellington owners really want Palmer back, but it wouldn’t be shocking if the Giants still can’t stop Ellington in this one. We will keep you updated on Palmer, but as it stands now, he is very questionable for Week 3.


News: 9/14 (4:15am) Jaguars RB Storm Johnson (ankle) has been ruled out for Week 2.
Take: The Redskins, who face the Jaguars this week, lost NT Barry Cofield (ankle) last week, so Toby Gerhart (ankle, probable) has a decent match-up here. Not that Gerhart can’t play well all year, but he is a great sell-high candidate if he does have a strong Week 2.


News: 9/14 (4:12am) ESPN New York is predicting that Cardinals WR Michael Floyd will be shadowed by Giants CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in Week 2.
Take: It looks as if teams are already seeing Floyd as the No. 1 WR in AZ, something we predicted this off-season. This could be good for Fitz owners, as he could finally see the ball again. We still love Floyd moving forward; he still has low-end fantasy WR1-type upside the rest of the way (but of course don’t buy him at that value – you never want to buy a player at max value).


News: 9/14 (4:11am) ESPN Boston is expecting Patriots RB Shane Vereen to get more early-down and short-yardage opportunities in Week 2.
Take: Take: This is fantastic news considering Vereen received three goal-line touches last week. Vereen has sneaky-good high-end RB2-type upside moving forward (in PPR).


News: 9/14 (4:10am) Andre Ellington (foot) says that he is “good to go” for Sunday’s Week 2 contest against the Giants.
Ellington, working on a short week, returned to a limited practice on Friday. The Cardinals’ official website confirms that it would “probably be an upset” if he doesn’t play Sunday. Ellington clearly wasn’t 100 percent in Week 1, but still totaled 80 yards on 18 touches.
Take: He saw limited action in practice on Friday, but no outlet or source is reporting that he has any chance of missing Week 2. Is he 100%? No, but managing 80 total yards and getting 18 touches is pretty darn good for a player we’re all worried about. It’s a shane he isn’t 100%, as Ellington was one of our bigger RB2 breakouts this year… let’s hope he gets going against the Giants defense.


News: 9/14 (4:05am) Wes Welker will not play in Sunday’s Week 2 contest against the Chiefs.
Take: Once a new drug policy is ‘official’, we fully expect Welker to return to action in Week 3. Anything can happen, though, so stay tuned on this one.


News: 9/14 (4:04am) Rams QB Shaun Hill (questionable, thigh) traveled with the team to face the Bucs in Week 2.
Take: This looks like a game-time decision, with Austin Davis looking to start in place of Hill if he can’t go. Stay tuned, although, no one should be starting either Hill or Davis in Week 2.


News: 9/14 (4:04am) The NFL confirmed that Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, who is deactivated for Week 2, could be looking at disciplinary action under the league’s personal-conduct policy.
Take: “Could” is the wrong word if you ask us. I think “will” is the better word. Read more about our stance here. Matt Asiata will start Sunday against NE, and rookie Jerick McKinnon, who we talk up here, is expected to see touches.


RADIO: Listen to Russ Bliss and Smitty talk about the upcoming Week 2!

Take a listen to Russ Bliss’ and Smitty talk about the upcoming Week 2 of the 2014 fantasy football season! Take a listen!

The Red Zone With Russ Bliss

Date: 9/9/14

Guest: Smitty

Topics: Cordarrelle Patterson, Bernard Pierce, Ray Rice, Justin Forsett, Jordan Cameron, Pierre Garcon, Roddy White, Josh Gordon, Wes Welker, Michael Floyd, Andre Ellington, Bobby Rainey, Doug Martin, Eddie Lacy, Golden Tate, Percy Harvin, Anquan Boldin, Joique Bell, Chris Ivory, Keenan Allen

Listen Now!

NEWS: Michael Floyd to be a major deep threat in 2014?

Cardinals WR Michael Floyd pulled in one pass for four yards during Sunday’s preseason contest against the Bengals. Larry Fitzgerald pulled in three receptions for 71 yards.

SMITTY: My guess is that the typical fantasy football owner in most leagues didn’t watch this game… Michael Floyd was targeted twice on two super-deep touchdown passes, so Carson Palmer is going to stretch the field with Floyd all year long. The first bomb was just dropped by Floyd in the end zone, and the second deep pass was just bad timing on the part of Palmer. Some might consider the Fitzgerald the No. 1 in Arizona this year, and he very well could have one more season as the top dog Cardinal receiver… but, I love how Floyd is progressing, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Floyd dance in low-end fantasy WR1-territory in 2014. Don’t even think about drafting him at that value/level, that’s not smart drafting… Use his 5th- to early 6th-round ADP to your advantage. Looking for Week 1 Power Rankings?

NEWS: Michael Floyd to be the No. 1 WR in AZ in 2014?

According to Dan Pompei on Twitter, Cardinals WR Michael Floyd “is in for a big year.” He also tweeted, “Some people in camp think he’ll be their [Cardinals] No. 1 WR.”

SMITTY: Michael Floyd is a beast, and 85 receptions for 1,200 yards and 10TDs wouldn’t be shocking. Don’t draft him at that value, as you don’t have to, but Floyd is a receiver that can explode from his current ADP (5.06-6.01). Larry Fitzgerald is still capable of 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and 6-8TDs, yes, even with my seriously-high Floyd expectations. Let’s just hope Carson Palmer can stay healthy, as an injury to Palmer could hurt both Cardinals receivers. Looking for Week 1 Michael Floyd Power Rankings?

NEWS: John Brown cannot be covered?

According to Josh Weinfuss on Twitter, Cardinals GM Steve Keim said this about rookie WR John Brown: “I can tell you so far we haven’t been able to cover him.”

SMITTY: This has to be the fourth or fifth time we’ve received raving reviews on this youngster, as Bruce Arians molds him into his Cardinal version of TY Hilton. John Brown runs a 4.34 and has some really-strong dynasty value right now, but it’s hard to imagine him being consistent in 2014 given that both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald could be set to pull in 1,000 yards and double-digit scores.

NEWS: Trent Richardson expected to have a great season?

According to usatoday.com, Colts coach Chuck Pagano predicts that Trent Richardson will have a “great” season in 2014.

SMITTY: This is a tough one, honestly, it is. I was sold on Trent Richardson last year, and he just didn’t deliver. In his defense, changing teams during a season is never easy, and I watched tape on the runner and he had some strong runs if you dig deep enough. The talent is there, but it’s almost as if his struggles last year were mental and confidence-related. That’s the only part that has me hesitating on his 5th-round ADP. Now, that’s not a bad risk/reward in the 5th-round, as I truly believe T-Rich has the talent, I am just not sure if he has shaken whatever made him ineffective for most all of last season. Here is what you have to ask yourself if on the clock and looking at Richardson’s name tag… are the other available players still a better grab? Players often available at Richardson’s ADP are: Ben Tate, Chris Johnson, Michael Floyd, Jordan Cameron and Joique Bell… All the runners listed have similar risk levels and similar upsides, but I’d have to say a handcuffed Ben Tate seems like the better 5th-round buy heading into August!

Analyzing the July ADP: 2014 Value Grabs

smitty-staff

Ok, so it’s the middle of July, which means that 2014 fantasy football drafts are around the corner. Are you ready? Do you know know where players are falling on average in recent fantasy football mock drafts? Knowing a player’s ADP (average draft position) is a critical aspect of fantasy football drafting, as you always want to maximize draft value with every pick that you make. Now, what does that mean? Here are two examples:

Not Maximizing Draft Value

An example of this would be drafting Marshawn Lynch in the 1.08-1.09 range. Keep in mind, I am not calling the selecting of Lynch at 1.08-1.09 a bad pick, it’s just not a pick that is going to give you tons of unexpected value. In fact, Lynch has to have a top 5ish fantasy running back season for him to earn you back your investment. While you won’t be able to draft underrated players at every selection, especially in the first round, this is an example of picking a player where he deserves to be selected. There is both nothing wrong with this pick, nor is there anything spectacular about it. It’s just a good predictable pick.

Maximizing Draft Value

An example of this would be to draft Aaron Rodgers at 3.01. Given that Rodgers could arguably lead all fantasy football players in scoring in 2014, there is a ton of room for over-performing with a 3.01 selection. Again, you can’t find value above and beyond at every turn, but in rounds 2-5 (not so much in round 1), there are handfuls of players that fit the bill.

Ok, so now that I’ve explained “Maximizing Draft Value”, it’s time to call out some “value grabs” heading into early 2014 fantasy football drafts. The ADP data below was provided by our friends over at fantasy football calculator:

2014 Fantasy Football ADP (as of 7/16/14)

1
1.02
LeSean McCoy
RB
PHI
2 1.02 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 1.03 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
4 1.05 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 1.05 Calvin Johnson WR DET
6 1.06 Eddie Lacy RB GB
7 1.08 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
8 1.09 Jimmy Graham TE NO
9 1.09 Peyton Manning QB DEN
10 1.09 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
11 1.11 Dez Bryant WR DAL
12 1.12 Montee Ball RB DEN
13 2.01 Arian Foster RB HOU
14 2.02 A.J. Green WR CIN
15 2.03 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
16 2.04 Julio Jones WR ATL
17 2.05 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
18 2.05 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
19 2.07 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 2.08 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
21 2.09 Alfred Morris RB WAS
22 2.1 Drew Brees QB NO
23 2.11 Jordy Nelson WR GB
24 2.12 Doug Martin RB TB
25 3.01 Antonio Brown WR PIT
26 3.02 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
27 3.03 Zac Stacy RB STL
28 3.04 Randall Cobb WR GB
29 3.05 Julius Thomas TE DEN
30 3.06 Andre Ellington RB ARI
31 3.07 C.J. Spiller RB BUF
32 3.07 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
33 3.09 Reggie Bush RB DET
34 3.1 Vincent Jackson WR TB
35 3.11 Keenan Allen WR SD
36 4.01 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
37 4.01 Toby Gerhart RB JAC
38 4.03 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
39 4.03 Victor Cruz WR NYG
40 4.05 Ryan Mathews RB SD
41 4.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
42 4.06 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
43 4.07 Wes Welker WR DEN
44 4.07 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN
45 4.09 Percy Harvin WR SEA
46 4.11 Shane Vereen RB NE
47 4.11 Andre Johnson WR HOU
48 4.11 Frank Gore RB SF
49 4.12 Matthew Stafford QB DET
50 4.12 Michael Crabtree WR SF
51 5.02 Roddy White WR ATL
52 5.02 Chris Johnson RB NYJ
53 5.04 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
54 5.05 Trent Richardson RB IND
55 5.07 Andrew Luck QB IND
56 5.07 Ben Tate RB CLE
57 5.08 Michael Floyd WR ARI
58 5.09 Vernon Davis TE SF
59 5.09 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
60 5.1 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
61 5.11 Joique Bell RB DET
62 6.01 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
63 6.01 Ray Rice RB BAL
64 6.04 Torrey Smith WR BAL
65 6.05 Stevan Ridley RB NE
66 6.06 Nick Foles QB PHI
67 6.06 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
68 6.07 Robert Griffin III QB WAS
69 6.08 Mike Wallace WR MIA
70 6.09 Steven Jackson RB ATL
71 6.1 Julian Edelman WR NE
72 6.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
73 6.11 Pierre Thomas RB NO
74 7.01 Tom Brady QB NE
75 7.02 Marques Colston WR NO
76 7.03 Lamar Miller RB MIA
77 7.05 Maurice Jones-Drew RB OAK
78 7.06 Terrance Williams WR DAL
79 7.06 Matt Ryan QB ATL
80 7.06 Golden Tate WR DET
81 7.07 Jordan Reed TE WAS
82 7.09 Cam Newton QB CAR
83 7.09 Darren Sproles RB PHI
84 7.11 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
85 7.12 Terrance West RB CLE
86 8.01 Kendall Wright WR TEN
87 8.01 Reggie Wayne WR IND
88 8.02 Greg Olsen TE CAR
89 8.03 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
90 8.05 Dennis Pitta TE BAL
91 8.05 Seattle Defense DEF SEA
92 8.05 Bernard Pierce RB BAL
93 8.05 Eric Decker WR NYJ
94 8.08 Tony Romo QB DAL
95 8.09 Darren McFadden RB OAK
96 8.1 Riley Cooper WR PHI
97 8.11 Fred Jackson RB BUF
98 8.12 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN
99 8.12 Brandin Cooks WR NO
100 9.02 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
101 9.03 Knowshon Moreno RB MIA
102 9.04 Khiry Robinson RB NO
103 9.04 Rueben Randle WR NYG
104 9.04 Jay Cutler QB CHI
105 9.05 Danny Woodhead RB SD
106 9.09 Mike Evans WR TB
107 9.09 Hakeem Nicks WR IND
108 9.09 San Francisco Defense DEF SF
109 9.09 Dwayne Bowe WR KC
110 9.1 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
111 9.11 Tavon Austin WR STL
112 10.01 Philip Rivers QB SD
113 10.03 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
114 10.04 Cecil Shorts WR JAC
115 10.05 Zach Ertz TE PHI
116 10.06 Carolina Defense DEF CAR
117 10.06 Christine Michael RB SEA
118 10.08 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
119 10.08 Russell Wilson QB SEA
120 10.08 Danny Amendola WR NE
121 10.1 Kenny Stills WR NO
122 10.11 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
123 10.12 Denver Defense DEF DEN
124 11.01 Anquan Boldin WR SF
125 11.03 Eric Ebron TE DET
126 11.03 St. Louis Defense DEF STL
127 11.04 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
128 11.04 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT
129 11.05 Marvin Jones WR CIN
130 11.07 Carlos Hyde RB SF
131 11.08 Tre Mason RB STL
132 11.08 Ladarius Green TE SD
133 11.09 Andy Dalton QB CIN
134 11.1 New England Defense DEF NE
135 11.1 Jarrett Boykin WR GB
136 11.11 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
137 11.12 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
138 11.12 Aaron Dobson WR NE
139 12.01 Johnny Manziel QB CLE
140 12.04 David Wilson RB NYG
141 12.05 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
142 12.07 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
143 12.07 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
144 12.08 Steve Smith WR BAL
145 12.09 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN
146 12.11 James Jones WR OAK
147 12.12 Matt Prater PK DEN
148 13.01 Josh McCown QB TB
149 13.01 Charles Clay TE MIA
150 13.02 Andre Brown RB HOU

Value Grabs

Round One

There never are a lot of over-performing players in the first-round, as you can only over-perform so much from a first-round draft slot. However, if trying to pin down a couple names, I’d say that both Montee Ball and Peyton Manning have the ability to lead their position in scoring, so given they both have ADPs near the tail-end of the first-round, there is some value if we have to muster some up in this first-round.

Rounds 2-3

2.01 – Arian Foster: Honestly, Foster falls a lot further than this in all the drafts I’ve participated in, but because he has top 5RB appeal, even a 2.01 slotting has some value written all over it. So, expect Foster to fall more in the 2.05-2.12 range in your upcoming draft, and that’s fantastic value. Yes, there are some injury concerns, but Foster only has 1,320 regular-season touches to his name, which is 635 less than Marshawn Lynch (1,955) has to his name, and 572 less than Matt Forte (1,892) has to his name.

2.02 – AJ Green: I’m not sure why a receiver that could potentially finish as the No. 1 overall receiver in 2014 sits at 2.02 — That’s quite a bargain, and this data has over 800 drafts averaged.

2.04 – Julio Jones: Everything just said about AJG above can be said here. Are there injury concerns? Sure, but Julio has as much upside and physical ability than any receiver in the league (if not more).

2.07 – Giovani Bernard: While it’s entirely possible the little guy finishes around this range overall come season’s end, he has a ceiling in the top 5-10RB range, so this is a screaming deal, especially in PPR.

2.08 – Aaron Rodgers: I think I already covered how awesome this value is (in paragraph one of this article); the dude can be the No. 1 overall scorer. I don’t care if QBs fall late, or if there is always good QB value later, anytime you can land a player at 2.08 that can lead all fantasy players in scoring, you’re looking at a monster-type steal.

3.06 – Andre Ellington: Some might even think that this ADP is too high for an unproven Arizona rusher, but the soon-to-be sophomore rusher pulled in 39 passes as a rookie! He is easily considered the starter in AZ heading into 2014, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he drops top 5-10RB numbers. This is a home run pick right here, and if he remains healthy, it’s a pick that won’t likely leave you burned, as he can earn 3.06-type value even if he doesn’t meet my lofty expectations.

3.07 – CJ Spiller: He still has top 10RB appeal, so the risk is low in the middle-to-late third!

Round 4-5

4.07 – Cordarrelle Patterson: There is very little risk right here, as CP can drop low-end WR2-type numbers on a disappointing season. His ceiling is easily top 6-12 for WRs in 2014 and beyond.

5.08 – Michael Floyd: The stud receiver could very well takeover as Arizona’s top option by late this year, or at least early next year. On his journey to that talent level, he should drop super-high fantasy WR2-type numbers.

5.11 – Joique Bell: The runner turns 28 before Week 1, so he is no spring chicken…. just keep that in mind in dynasty, although he has low mileage. For all you yearly-league players out there, this runner could very well crank out high-end fantasy RB2-type stats this upcoming season, which would make him a steal in hindsight when talking about 5.11-type ADP. If healthy, he feels like a lock for 50-60 receptions… I envision him running for 1,000 yards and 6TDs this year, as well… even if he doesn’t, he still earns 5.11-type value in PPR. If he meets my expectations, well, then he crushes 5.11 value!

We could go on and on, as there are handfuls of later-round grabs that could explode from their current ADPs (like Nick Foles in the 6th-round), but this should have you covered through round 5. For more on this topic, or any other, get on the forums!

NEWS: Cordarrelle Patterson says he will be a top-five playmaker in 2014.

According to NFL.com, Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson believes he is in for a breakout season in 2014. “I’m going to be a top-five playmaker,” Patterson said. “I’m a playmaker, I like to make plays. Like I tell them, just get the ball in my hands I feel like I’m special with it. I just like to do special things with the ball.”

SMITTY: Cordarrelle Patterson is on most everyone’s breakout radar, however, the guy can still smash his currently-rising ADP, which has now climbed into the 4.12-5.03 range. His ADP has climbed quite a bit over the last two months, there is no denying it, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t nicely outplay it even at 4.12-5.03 value, as that’s where players like Roddy White, Chris Johnson, Trent Richardson and DeSean Jackson are being taken. A couple players below the 4.12 spot are players I like as much as Patterson, like Michael Floyd and Joique Bell, but Patterson has as much value, or more, as some players in the 3rd-round, like Reggie Bush, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, and Ryan Mathews. I love VJax and Cruz this year, so I’m not predicting bust for those guys, I just feel that Patterson also belongs in that late 3rd-round range with those big names, which is fantastic news for those able to snag him in the late 4th- or early 5th-rounds. Want to know where we have all these players ranked based on your exact league scoring? Get your hands on our fantasy football cheat sheets 2014!

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft In July (Redraft, PPR)

Below is a 2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (in July), and below each round you will find my commentary/take on that round. This mock draft took place on our forums, so it’s a great indicator of current/true player values. The scoring for this fantasy football mock draft was assumed to be PPR, and it was done with a ‘redraft’ (2014 only) frame of mind. Thanks to all who participated. Enjoy.

Round One
1.01 – LeSean McCoy RB
1.02 – Jamaal Charles RB
1.03 – Adrian Peterson RB
1.04 – Calvin Johnson WR
1.05 – Eddie Lacy RB
1.06 – Matt Forte RB
1.07 – AJ Green WR
1.08 – Demariyus Thomas WR
1.09 – Julio Jones WR
1.10 – Jimmy Graham TE
1.11 – Marshawn Lynch RB
1.12 – Dez Byrant WR

Smitty’s Take: There weren’t very many surprises in round one, and their usually aren’t. Sure, a case can be made for Peyton Manning being round one worthy, but it’s not surprising to see him fall to 2.01. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are spot on in my book, and I can’t argue a bit with 1.04-1.12 (aside from pushing Manning into that 1.09-1.12 range, which isn’t everyone’s cup of tea).

Round Two
2.01 – Peyton Manning QB
2.02 – Monte Ball RB
2.03 – Aaron Rodgers QB
2.04 – Rob Gronkowski TE
2.05 – Doug Martin RB
2.06 – Brandon Marshall WR
2.07 – Antonio Brown WR
2.08 – Randall Cobb WR
2.09 – Demarco Murray RB
2.10 – Arian Foster RB
2.11 – Leveon Bell RB
2.12 – Julius Thomas TE

Smitty’s Take: Ok, so this is where one draft will look completely different than another draft (even if that mock draft took place on the same exact forum 10 minutes later). I love the value of Montee Ball, even though his value has climbed higher than most expected (aside from us, as we predicted the climb). This is a redraft mock, but we’ve been pimping Ball since last season, and he and Nick Foles (and Christine Michael) have been our top “go get” players all off-season long. This was when Foles was still in most everyone’s bottom-half of their top ten-ranked passers, and this was before Ball started sniffing second-round value (he was even a 4th-round player on average back in February). In redraft, though, don’t shy away from making Ball your second-drafted player, as he is very likely to crank out top 1-5RB numbers in that extremely-potent Denver offense. I wouldn’t even shy away from grabbing him ahead of Lynch in round one. Crazy? Well, let’s talk come season’s end.

Aaron Rodgers probably seems high to some, and not high to others. Frankly, how high QBs go depends on your league and league trends, so anyone suggesting that Rodgers at 2.03 is too early, or too late, is obviously speaking based on trends that they see league-wide. His 2.03 slotting above is neither too early or too late, as he can easily earn top 15 overall value. Doug Martin has a touch more risk than upside at his 2.05 slotting above, but if you can handcuff him to Charles Sims, you can minimize most of that risk. But, if drafting at that spot, I would have let him slide to the 2.10-2.12 range, which is where I’m more comfortable snagging Martin in 2014; he has tons of talent, but he also has an injury label that he needs to shake, plus he has a potential sharing situation heading his way. Arian foster has awesome value heading into 2014, as he constantly falls in that late second-round range. He may go in the first-round in some leagues, as again, every league is different with players like this (faced injury the prior season and has some overworked concerns). He has top 5RB upside, so 2.10 is low-risk/high-reward in my opinion.

Round Three
3.01 – Giovani Bernard RB
3.02 – CJ Spiller RB
3.03 – Nick Foles QB
3.04 – Jordy Nelson WR
3.05 – Victor Cruz WR
3.06 – Drew Brees QB
3.07 – Keenan Allen WR
3.08 – Zac Stacy RB
3.09 – Bishop Stankey RB
3.10 – Cordarrelle Patterson WR
3.11 – Andre Johnson WR
3.12 – Pierre Garcon WR

Smitty’s Take: I love the value of Gio Bernard at 3.01, but I don’t think you will see him fall that far on average. I could be wrong, and I sure hope that I am wrong, as I’d love this value in all my real upcoming 2014 fantasy football drafts. Gio Bernard is fantasy RB1-capable, yet he landed at 3.01 above… that’s crazy-good value, and again, that’s why I think that this won’t happen on average (he will more often be a 2.04-2.08 range player). Cordarrelle Patterson is now creeping into the 3rd-round in a lot of early 2014 mock drafts… expect this trend to continue, possibly even in the upward direction. He can earn that value, though, he has WR1-type upside, I just wonder if that production is still a year away. It might not be, but it gets a bit risky when you’re talking 3rd-round vs. 4th-round is all (I like him a lot in the 4th). Keenan Allen is another player that is climbing mock draft boards as of late, and let me tell you, I see the guy producing borderline low-end fantasy WR1-type numbers this year. He often falls into the 4th-round outside of STARTERS/DraftCalc communities, so snag him in the 4th-round where you can, as he can crush that value! Nick Foles is another player that ranks and gets drafted higher in DraftCalc and FFStarters worlds, so know that he often falls to the 4th-round, or even the 5th-round… and if I consider the 3rd-round still a steal (in terms of what he can do by season’s end), you can imagine how big of a steal he is to me at 4th- and 5th-round value. Use ADP data to your advantage and don’t draft Foles in the 3rd-round if you don’t have to, but I think we’re about to see Foles drop a top 3 fantasy QB season (with appearances with the top 1-2 on lots of occasions).

Round Four
4.01 – Andre Ellington RB
4.02 – Alshon Jefferey WR
4.03 – Matthew Stafford QB
4.04 – Alfred Morris RB
4.05 – Michael Floyd WR
4.06 – Vincent Jackson WR
4.07 – Wes Welker WR
4.08 – Frank Gore RB
4.09 – Andrew Luck QB
4.10 – Kendall Wright WR
4.11 – Percy Harvin WR
4.12 – Shane Vereen RB

Smitty’s Take: Not a lot of surprises in terms of players falling into this round, but I will say that Andre Ellington is the only running back left that has top 5-10 fantasy running back upside. He has almost no risk as a 4th- to 5th-round pick, because he pulled in 39 receptions as a rookie, and 40-50 receptions feels like a given entering his first season as a starter. Ellington has HUGE, HUGE upside! I can’t wait to watch him breakout!

Just Missed The Cut

Now, a 4th-round argument can be made for any of the below players, especially Ben Tate (if handcuffed to Terrance West), Tom Brady, and Chris Johnson.

Larry Fitzgerald
Reggie Bush
Sammy Watkins
Ben Tate & Terrance West
Trent Richardson
Toby Gerhart
Chris Johnson
Rashad Jennings
Joique Bell
Cam Newton
Tom Brady
RG3
Ryan Mathews
Mike Evans
Vernon Davis
Ray Rice / Bernard Pierce
Jordan Cameron
Michael Crabtree
Eric Decker
Lamar Miller
Mike Wallace
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Hakeem Nicks
Julian Edelman

NEWS: Andre Johnson expected to show up; Arian Foster set to bounce-back?

ESPN’s Tania Ganguli expects Texans WR Andre Johnson “to be back in the fold for the Texans despite his current holdout.”

SMITTY: We expect the same, as Andre Johnson, turning 33 this month, has no leverage. Houston won’t likely trade him, nor could they at a value that helps the Texans. We don’t see AJ holding out long at all. While it could take until his third season, DeAndre Hopkins might have a sophomore breakout similar to Michael Floyd’s second-year jump. During his second NFL season, Michael Floyd dropped 66/1054/5TDs, something Hopkins almost sniffed as a rookie (52/802/2TDs). Floyd now enters 2014 with a real nice chance of hitting a stat line like 80/1100/8-10TDs. Don’t be surprised if Hopkins follows Floyd’s exact blueprint to elite, but again keep in mind he could end up taking an extra year to get to Floyd’s level, you never know. The player I’m most excited about on that Texans roster is Arian Foster, who might have a big-time bounce-back season this upcoming year. Earlier last month, coach Bill O’Brien said that Foster would fill the roles played by Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead back in New England. That could mean 50-60 receptions for Foster in 2014, and he could still see anywhere between 250-280 carries, which could have him producing 1,100-1,200 yards and potentially double-digit touchdowns. I know, Foster has tons of mileage, right? Here are some interesting stats: Matt Forte = 1,892 regular-season touches; Marshawn Lynch = 1,955 regular-season touches…. How many regular-season touches does Foster have? Try just 1,320! See what we have projected for all these players via our 2014 Full-Season Fantasy Football Projections.