Archive for justin blackmon

Smitty’s 2015 Redraft Rankings; Smitty’s 2015 Dynasty Rankings.

smitty staff

Hey STARTERS Nation:

Of course, we have our Draft Analyzer here at STARTERS, which cranks out custom cheat sheets using an industry-leading predictive algorithm. However, I also provide my personal redraft and dynasty rankings outside of the Analyzer rankings, just to give all you fantasy fanatics another list to look at. Use them all, you can never get enough info to mix together! Below are both the updated dynasty and redraft links!

NOTE: Due to endless requests for it, I have added a tiering system to both sets of rankings!

Redraft Rankings Dynasty Rankings

NEWS: Justin Blackmon can apply for reinstatement after November 1?

According to rotoworld, suspended Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon can apply for league reinstatement after November 1, so Week 9 of the 2014 NFL season.

SMITTY: Justin Blackmon has high-end fantasy WR2-type potential (maybe higher), but clearly none of that matters. However, he is being dropped in some leagues and can be had for almost nothing in others (and I’m talking dynasty), which seems crazy given his potential if he ever does hit the field again. I am not counting on him, that’s for sure, but I have already acquired him in two leagues for almost garbage (a future 4th-round rookie pick in one league), and he was cut in a 4-year contract league I’m in, where I can now sign him for a buck for 4 years. Before this news spreads too far, check your league’s free agent pool and toss him into a deal as a throw in if you can. As for his redraft value, he deserves to be rostered in deep leagues (but only use a late, late round pick on him), as there is a chance he could return at some point this season. Looking for Week 1 Power Rankings?

NEWS: Justin Blackmon arrested WED night for marijuana possession.

According to, Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon was stopped for a traffic violation on Wednesday night. Officers could smell an order of marijuana, according to reports, and after searching, police found marijuana and then took Blackmon into custody.

SMITTY: Unbelievable. Justin Blackmon clearly doesn’t understand what kind of opportunity he had as an elite NFL receiver. It’s extremely disappointing that some players cannot learn or follow the rules of the NFL. The team has no plans to cut Blackmon (at this time) – His return to the NFL in 2015 is questionable.

NEWS: Josh Gordon to have a tough time making it back into the NFL?

According to, sources close to Browns WR Josh Gordon “have told they’re concerned that if he’s away from the team for a year and away from his support system, that he’ll have a tough time making it back into the NFL.”

SMITTY: While it’s extremely important to take this report for what it is, which is speculation based on the concern of “sources”, it’s also important to examine this situation from all fantasy angles. There is the angle of using this information in order to buy-low on Josh Gordon in dynasty leagues, but you’d have to buy-low enough that it almost costs you nothing while you wait. A future draft pick comes to mind… I’ve seen some fantasy owners trade a future 2nd-round pick for Gordon, and since this was in dynasty, where one can keep a player for as long as they want, this is a screaming steal (as the risk is way low when you’re talking a second-round pick, yet the reward is off the charts). My advice to all current Gordon owners is not to sell-low, it’s just not worth it. Another angle is buying Jordan Cameron on the cheap, as he could see a huge boost in targets should Gordon get handed a year-long (or longer) suspension. He may not be cheap in some leagues, he might be a decent deal in others… every league is different. As for what I think will happen with Gordon’s suspension, I’d be lying if I said I had a big gut feeling regarding the outcome. It could be an eight-game ban, or a year, it’s tough to say what’s going to go down… There are all kinds of reports floating around, some very different than others, but keep in mind that if Gordon does get handed a year-long suspension, commissioner Roger Goodell still gets to decide whether or not to let Gordon back into the league, even if he serves the year-long ban. As the linked article above asks, will Gordon find his way back to the elite, let alone the NFL, after a year off (if that’s the sentence that gets handed down)? And, will Goodell treat Gordon like he has Justin Blackmon, who served his lengthy suspension, but still has not been reinstated into the league? These are all things to think about, but all are things we have to speculate about at the current moment. Check out where we have Jordan Cameron ranking entering 2014!

Article: 2014 Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers


Each and every fantasy football season, a group of third-year receivers finally reach their ultra-productive point. Fantasy worlds call these players the Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers. Below is one that really stands out to me: T.Y. Hilton.

Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers

TY Hilton’s current ADP is at the back of the fifth-round at 58 overall. Hilton has shown an increase in production in each of his first two seasons, though his average yards-per-catch declined in 2013. Still, his overall stat line last year was 82/1083/5TDs, which proved to be a respectable WR2 (221 pts), and he was a 7th-round pick at that time (August of 2013).

We know the Colts are going to score points this coming year. A number of factors point to Hilton increasing his production in 2014. First, he falls into the “Third-Year WR Breakout” theory. Sometimes receivers breakout sooner, like AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery, or Anquan Boldin in year’s past, and other times a receiver just needs two full seasons under his belt before reaching that next level of production (ex: Dez Bryant, who went from 63/928/9TDs during his second year to 92/1382/12 during his third-year breakout season). Now couple all that with consistency, as Hilton enters 2014 with the same coach, quarterback and quick-strike offense that he has matured in. Thirdly, he won’t face many double coverages in 2014 with notable peers Reggie Wayne and newly-acquired Hakeem Nicks requiring attention.

When Reggie Wayne went down last year, Hilton filled the void admirably, producing better-than-expected results, yet I still believe the loss of Wayne impeded Hilton’s overall production. I took note of a recent report that stated that Hilton was working out of all four wide-receiver position during the Colts’ mini-camp. This was interesting, as this could make it tough for defenses to scheme him from week to week, but of course this would also require the presence of a healthy Reggie Wayne, and/or a version of Hakeem Nicks that can adapt to the offense.

I have nothing but respect for Reggie Wayne, but I have a difficult time believing that a 35-year-old NFL wide receiver can be productive the season following knee surgery. History suggests a negative impact. I’m not sure where he is in his rehab, but at his age, he won’t be able to pull off what Adrian Peterson did, where he was running lateral drills in a sand pit 9 months removed from his LCL, ACL, and MCL surgery. Sorry, Reggie, I won’t expect that from a 35-year-old receiver. I will expect to see more of LaVon Brazill.

Where Hakeem Nicks will fit into that Colts’ offense remains to be seen. Staying healthy is still a concern for Nicks, but the combination of Wayne and Nicks is sure to leave Hilton in some good spots all over the field in 2014. Plus, I expect to see the Colts’ 3rd-round draft pick, Donte Moncrief, stretch the field often in 2014; he has both size and speed and should be a great red-zone target, even as a rookie.

Hilton might be sitting at #58 overall right now, but come August, I anticipate him moving up fantasy draft boards. Dynasty league owners should start trying to acquire him now while he maintains low trade value.

2014 Projections: I have T.Y Hilton pulling in 92 receptions for 1,250 yards and 9TDs this upcoming year.

Full List of 2014 Third-Year Breakout Wide Receivers

Below are players already playing like studs and/or suspended:

Alshon Jeffery (already broke out in 2013)
Michael Floyd (already broke out in 2013)
Josh Gordon (already broke out in 2014; facing possible suspension in 2014)
• Justin Blackmon WR, JAC (suspended indefinitely)

  1. TY Hilton WR, IND
  2. Kendall Wright WR, TEN (semi breakout in 2013)
  3. Marvin Jones WR, CIN (semi breakout in 2013)
  4. Jarrett Boykin WR, GB
  5. Rueben Randle WR, NYG
  6. Jermaine Kearse WR, SEA
  7. Andre Holmes WR, OAK
  8. Stephen Hill WR, NYJ
  9. Rod Streater WR, OAK
  10. Cole Beasley WR, DAL
  11. Brian Quick WR STL
  12. Ryan Broyles WR, DET
  13. Mohamed Sanu WR, CIN