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2015 Average Draft Positions: April

smitty staff

Ok, so it’s only the middle of April, and 2015 Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are hardly settled, especially with the upcoming 2015 NFL Draft…. that said, it’s still fun, and important, to dig into the data and find out which players are looking overvalued heading into the upcoming fantasy football season, and which players look like early sleeper candidates.

This is REDRAFT ADP Data.

2015 ADP Data

Date: 4/21/15 | Source: Mixture of Industry-leading ‘Redraft’ ADPs

Note: I have placed notes next to certain players that are worth talking about, good or bad.

1 LeVeon Bell RB PIT – Keep in mind that a lot of this ADP data piled on prior to his suspension being announced, but even if we looked at only recent drafts, he will likely be near top 5.

2 Jamaal Charles RB KC

3 Eddie Lacy RB GB

4 Adrian Peterson RB MIN – Surprisingly high for even redraft ADP data, but certainly still worth this pick. He could still be the No. 1 rusher in fantasy.

5 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA

6 Antonio Brown WR PIT – Not surprising, however, his value is almost too high for him to exceed any further expectations. I’d almost rather trade down and land an AJ Green or Julio Jones in the 18-20ish range, thus moving up in a draft at other spots.

7 Matt Forte RB CHI – Year of decline? Or, does he have one more top 1-5RB season left? Certainly consider selling in dynasty. This is redraft ADP Data, though, so this slot is warranted, but concern is present for sure, even in redraft.

8 Rob Gronkowski TE NE

9 Dez Bryant WR DAL

10 DeMarco Murray RB PHI – Solid value, but still ranked about right given the risks involved in moving teams, getting hurt, and playing for an offense that just had LeSean McCoy bust.

11 LeSean McCoy RB BUF

12 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG – This is high, but he is worth the ranking.

13 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN – Solid value, but also a decent place to slot him given there are ‘some’ questions about Peyton Manning delivering top 1-3QB numbers this year.

14 Calvin Johnson WR DET – Very solid value. He is still Calvin, and unless we’re talking dynasty, he has No. 1WR upside still.

15 Arian Foster RB HOU – Foster was on our Upside Board last year, and for good reason. However, this year, there is a touch more risk he misses more than 1-2 games.

16 Jordy Nelson WR GB – Solid value, as always. He is always an underrated fantasy WR1.

17 Julio Jones WR ATL – Huge upside ranked this late, but about right given the risks. I like this value vs risk, it’s a risk worth taking given his 1-3 fantasy wide receiver ceiling.

18 A.J. Green WR CIN – Steal. It’s hard to imagine him not earning at least this value, and that screams sleeper given the slot, as he could be a top 1-4 fantasy wide receiver this season.

19 Aaron Rodgers QB GB – Some say a QB in the second is too early. I say no way, not when you’re talking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, as both have No. 1 overall upside in most all formats (especially leagues where QBs get 6pts per TD.

20 CJ Anderson RB DEN – It’s too risky counting on this situation as your RB2.

21 Jeremy Hill RB CIN – While I love Hill, who was an Upside Board player last year, ranking No. 21 means he has less upside than most would like. This seems like a fair value type slotting, meaning the ‘ceiling’ value isn’t through the roof.

22 Andrew Luck QB IND – See what I just said above regarding Aaron Rodgers.

23 Randall Cobb WR GB

24 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI – A top 5 fantasy WR season on the way?

25 T.Y. Hilton WR IND

26 Carlos Hyde RB SF – Get ready, this kid could be a top 5-10RB, a potential that makes this 26th overall ranking very solid.

27 Mike Evans WR TB – Beast in the making.

28 Jimmy Graham TE SEA – Solid value given he could still rival Rob Gronkowski. “Could” being the keyword, as we just don’t know what is in store for Graham in Seattle.

29 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN – This is a risky third player to draft in 2015. I like him as a 4th- or 5th-drafted player, but it seems like his ADP is just too high to snag him at those levels. I say pass on him in 2015, he has to play out of his mind to earn his value back, and that is questionable given how so many are predicting less passing in DEN in 2015.

30 Justin Forsett RB BAL – Risky in some ways, still solid ‘upside’ down here at No. 30 overall. What BAL does in the draft will move this guy around a ton between now and 2015.

31 Lamar Miller RB MIA – A former Upside Board candidate that could explode later than expected? We have always seen top 5-10RB numbers in this kid, he just needs/needed a chance.

32 Mark Ingram RB NO – Solid value given his ceiling. His playing time and job security are the risks, but that seems pretty well built into his ADP at this point. Great news.

33 Frank Gore RB IND – He could squeeze out one more elite year in this situation. Then again, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to see him just have decent success, or great success here and there.

34 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR – Solid future, and very solid value given he has WR2 upside.

35 Alfred Morris RB WAS

36 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU

37 Peyton Manning QB DEN – Are there concerns? Sure, but at this value who cares?

38 Joique Bell RB DET

39 Tre Mason RB STL – Top 10RB in the making? Or, is he yet another runner that will be overlooked and underutilized by his coaching staff?

40 Jordan Matthews WR PHI – Nice situation, huge talent.

41 Brandin Cooks WR NO – This screams value, as he could catch 90+ balls in 2015 – easy.

42 Latavius Murray RB OAK – Huge sleeper, but will OAK draft a runner? Will Oakland screw this up? They could, but the risk seems built into the ADP. Trust in Murray at 42 overall value, no question. He is worth that risk!

43 Russell Wilson QB SEA

44 Julian Edelman WR NE

45 Sammy Watkins WR BUF – Sleeper. Wow. In redraft, at least, it appears Sammy Watkins is being overlooked. Take full advantage.

46 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR – Not sure I trust him, even here. I wouldn’t call this all that risky, though, but with players like Drew Brees, brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry and Tom Brady still available in redraft, I couldn’t take JStew just yet.

47 Drew Brees QB NO – Steal in redraft.

48 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ – Solid value, but it looks like many fear a decline in NY this year. Again, solid value, but expectations should be somewhat curbed in NY.

49 Andre Ellington RB ARI

50 Golden Tate WR DET

51 Greg Olsen TE CAR

52 Andre Johnson WR IND – He still could be elite, for at least this year, in IND.

53 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE

54 Travis Kelce TE KC

55 Jarvis Landry WR MIA – Like with Sammy Watkins above, wow. This is great value in redraft.

56 Devonta Freeman RB ATL

57 Jeremy Maclin WR KC

58 Martavis Bryant WR PIT – Steal.

59 Tom Brady QB NE – Solid value.

60 Rashad Jennings RB NYG

61 DeSean Jackson WR WAS

62 C.J. Spiller RB NO – Huge appeal at this value. He could bust, sure, but the risk is minimal at 62 overall.

63 Giovani Bernard RB CIN – Don’t write him off after one year. CIN has room for both he and Jeremy Hill. He is worth the gamble at this slot, no question.

64 Keenan Allen WR SD

65 Todd Gurley RB FA – Steal. He may not play right away, or if he does, he could be limited. That doesn’t matter. He could be a top 10RB once he does get into his team’s line-up.

66 Julius Thomas TE JAC

67 Martellus Bennett TE CHI

68 Victor Cruz WR NYG – This is way too high given his injury.

69 Matt Ryan QB ATL

70 Darren McFadden RB DAL

71 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT

72 Mike Wallace WR MIN

73 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT

74 Ryan Mathews RB PHI

75 Roddy White WR ATL

76 Denard Robinson RB JAC

77 Michael Floyd WR ARI

78 Cam Newton QB CAR

79 Doug Martin RB TB

80 Antonio Gates TE SD

81 Vincent Jackson WR TB

82 Torrey Smith WR BAL

83 Tony Romo QB DAL

84 Branden Oliver RB SD

85 Matthew Stafford QB DET

86 Brandon LaFell WR NE

87 Kenny Stills WR MIA

88 Melvin Gordon RB FA – This is high-way robbery, but I don’t see Melvin Gordon ranking this low after the draft. Look for him to be a 3rd- to 4th-round pick come August. Expect that, at least.

89 Shane Vereen RB NYG

90 Jerick McKinnon RB MIN

91 Bishop Sankey RB TEN

92 Chris Ivory RB NYJ

93 Donte Moncrief WR IND – Could breakout in 2015.

94 Jordan Cameron TE MIA

95 Owen Daniels TE DEN

96 Eli Manning QB NYG

97 Steve Smith WR BAL

98 Dwayne Allen TE IND

99 Knile Davis RB KC

100 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI

2016 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (not factoring in 2015)?

smitty staff

Date: 4/13/15

Looking for a 2016 Fantasy Football Dynasty Mock Draft? No, I didn’t say 2015, I said 2016! That’s right, this mock draft is for one full season from now, so when you view this mock draft, keep in mind we are all pretending like the upcoming 2015 fantasy football season doesn’t matter at all. This means that LeVeon Bell’s missed games don’t apply, it means that no rookie rushers from the 2015 NFL Draft Class will have to worry about their rookie seasons holding them back from being drafted high… it’s all about 2016+. I asked some of our hardcore forum users to participate in this mock draft, so keep in mind these results have been produced by the people for the people, I am just merely writing it up and talking about where I see value. Thanks to all who participated in this 2016 fantasy football dynasty mock draft!

Round One
1.1 – LeVeon Bell
1.2 – Antonio Brown
1.3 – Eddie Lacy
1.4 – Dez Bryant
1.5 – Odell Beckham
1.6 – Julio jones
1.7 – Rob Gronkowski
1.8 – Jamal Charles
1.9 – Andrew Luck
1.10 – AJ Green
1.11 – Jeremy Hill
1.12 – Todd Gurley

Smitty’s Take: View This Exclusive Content Now!

Round Two
2.1 – DeMarco Murray
2.2 – Mike Evans
2.3 – Aaron Rodgers
2.4 – Demaryius Thomas
2.5 – Alshon Jeffery
2.6 – Melvin Gordon
2.7 – Jordy Nelson
2.8 – Calvin Johnson
2.9 – Sammy Watkins
2.10 – Randall Cobb
2.11 – LeSean Mccoy
2.12 – DeAndre Hopkins

Smitty’s Take: View This Exclusive Content Now!

Round Three
3.01 – Drew Brees
3.02 – Carlos Hyde
3.03 – Adrian Peterson
3.04 – Brandin Cooks
3.05 – Amari Cooper
3.06 – Kelvin Benjamin
3.07 – Matt Forte
3.08 – TY Hilton
3.09 – CJ Anderson
3.10 – Jordan Matthews
3.11 – Jimmy Graham
3.12 – Lamar Miller

Smitty’s Take: View This Exclusive Content Now!

View Smitty’s Write-Up!

ARTICLE: Day After The 2015 NFL Super Bowl Rankings (ranking for 2015 fantasy football)

smitty staff

Ok, folks… it’s that time! It’s time to start ranking players for the 2015 fantasy football season! Below you will find a button that leads you to our crazy early bold 2015 fantasy football rankings cheat sheet (redraft)! Get some!

Note: The 2015 Rookies will be mixed in closer to April’s 2015 NFL Draft

2015 Rankings Cheat Sheet

ARTICLE: Crazy-Early 2015 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Dynasty)

smitty staff

Hey Starters Nation:

Looking for an early 2015 Fantasy Football Mock Draft / Rankings heading into 2015? This is a dynasty mock draft, so keep in mind that players like Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Manning, Matt Forte, among others, are going to fall much, much further than they would in a early 2015 fantasy football yearly-league mock draft, but this mock draft should be rather useful to all fantasy leaguers, as for the most part things in redraft and dynasty can often times line-up rather well entering January. On that note, enjoy!

View Mock Draft Now!

NEWS: Nick Foles suffers broken collarbone; Lamar Miller to have MRI on shoulder; Arian Foster might have a bad groin injury?

SMITTY: Wow, things just keep getting worse as far as 2014 injuries go… Nick Foles suffered a broken collarbone in Week 9, and while the early guess is that he will miss 4-6 weeks, we need to wait on test results to know for sure how much time he will miss. Mark Sanchez is a solid grab in 2QB leagues, and even in larger 1QB leagues. He is now commanding a very potent offense, so there is certainly some low-end QB1-type appeal during certain match-ups, and all those receivers from Jeremy Maclin to Jordan Matthews won’t lose much value if any, as that offense can be potent with either passer in there. LeSean McCoy is actually a decent buy-low if owners start freaking out about Foles getting hurt. Also, while I wouldn’t sell Jeremy Maclin at even fair market value, selling ‘high’ isn’t a bad idea, and that has nothing to do with Foles going down. Only sell if you are truly selling high, as he can still be a top 10WR down the stretch… selling players like Maclin on the ‘high’ doesn’t mean you don’t believe in them… you should only make such a move if it helps your line-up and you’re killing it on your side of the trade.

Lamar Miller suffered what appears to be a ‘stinger’, but we need to await MRI results on this one before we call his injury minor. Miller doesn’t seem worried, if that helps some fantasy owners rest easy.

As for Arian Foster, the news isn’t near as good, at least not initially. He suffered what looks like a pretty serious groin injury, and he fell down on his own during Week 9, which is never a good sign. Some sources are calling it a ‘soft tissue’ injury, and other sources sound pretty worried about his immediate availability. The good news here is that the Texans have a bye during this upcoming Week 10, so that gives Foster some extra rest. If Foster misses time after Week 10, Alfred Blue would likely see starter carries, which makes him a must-own if things head in that direction. We will keep you posted on all of this, and other news, all week long. Be sure to sign-up for our Smart Alerts

NEWS: LeSean McCoy, Nick Foles and that PHI offense to bounce-back?

SMITTY: Do I worry about Nick Foles being an elite talent? Absolutely not. Do I worry about him getting injured behind a beat-up Philly offensive line? Yes. That said, anyone freaking out and jumping ship on Nick Foles needs to look at the facts. Depending on your scoring, Foles was the 4th-ranked fantasy football QB heading into Week 3, and he accomplished all that with some strange starts to Weeks 1 and 2, and in Week 3, that Eagles offense didn’t even touch the field once in the first quarter due to the flow of game and a Philly DST score. To put this into an even clearer perspective, Foles, again depending on your scoring format, was roughly 4-10 points off Peyton Manning, who through three weeks of play was roughly 2-3 overall for QBs in almost all leagues. Does Philly need to make some changes and secure up their offensive line? Yes, no question, but they should have RT Lane Johnson back for Week 5 against the Rams, and you can bet that Chip Kelly will be getting LeSean McCoy more involved in his offense moving forward. Some might be jumping ship on McCoy, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for selling high if that were even possible (which it likely is not)… but, selling low is a big mistake, as you just won’t likely get anything near what you deserve if you put him on your trade block. Keep the faith, as McCoy would still be a top 5RB if drafting for Weeks 5-16. Well, that’s how I see it. Could that change after another 2-3 bad weeks? Of course, but that still doesn’t mean selling low is smart management right now. Testing the trade waters isn’t unwise, but pulling the trigger on a bad deal isn’t going to change things for you if McCoy has been holding your back thus far. To put McCoy’s season into perspective, he had a solid first two weeks of the season, totaling 100 yards in each contest, and he scored in that Week 2 game. Those are not bad numbers, folks, not at all. His Weeks 3 and 4 were awful, as he ran 19 times for 22 yards (with no receiving stats) in Week 3, and he ran 10 times for just 17 yards (with no receiving stats) in Week 4. Those are pathetic stat lines for a top 2 overall pick. But, those first two games, where he averaged over 100 total yards and 0.5TDs, those games should be factored into your thinking here if you are a semi-panicked McCoy owner… Our Week 5 Buy-Low Candidates will be out Tuesday, so sign up for Smart Alerts to ensure you get that list emailed right to you!

Watch this Video on Chip Kelly on his offense after Week 4

NEWS: Vernon Davis (ankle) optimistic for Week 4 in a 49ers-Eagles shootout?

SMITTY: It looks like Davis has a real shot at playing Week 4 against the Eagles. This will be an afternoon game, so hopefully we know his status prior to the morning set of games (and how will you find out? Smart Alerts!). For now, check out where we have Vernon Davis and all those Eagles offensive players Ranked on our Week 4 Power Rankings. This game could be a shootout, and look for Nick Foles to carry his Week 3 momentum into Week 4. Also, expect LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles to bounce-back in Week 4.

NEWS: Jeremy Maclin already back in the game after briefly leaving with a knee injury.

Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin is already back on the field after suffering what looked like a severe knee injury. LeSean McCoy headed to the locker room for x-rays on his thumb.

SMITTY: Great news, as it appears Maclin just hyperextended the knee. Look for him to rest it a bit after this one. For those clinging to Maclin’s health when trying to predict how this Eagles’ passing attack does in 2014, it would survive without Maclin. While the team is clearly better off with the guy on the field, keep in mind that this passing attack has two 50-60 reception rushers in LeSean McCoy (thumb/toe) and Darren Sproles, and Zach Ertz and Riley Cooper are severely-underrated possession types. Jordan Matthews is a rookie, so I fully expect inconsistency, and maybe even a slow start, but he has huge upside if the offense ever needs to turn to him in place of Maclin. Nick Foles is in for a huge 2014, and if you want to see some crazy-bold predictions, just view Full-Season 2014 Fantasy Football Projections. We will keep you updated on LeSean McCoy’s thumb! Hopefully it’s minor.

NEWS: LeSean McCoy leaves preseason game with a thumb injury; Maclin suffers knee injury.

Eagles running back LeSean McCoy left Thursday’s preseason contest with a thumb injury; he has headed to the locker room for x-rays. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin suffered a knee injury in the contest (looking like an ACL).

SMITTY: We will keep you posted on LeSean McCoy, but clearly not great news. Hopefully this ends up being minor, but it’s a reminder that Darren Sproles is a must-own for all McCoy owners in 2014. As for Jeremy Maclin, the guy just can’t stay healthy. He has a grip of upside, but this looked bad, like a torn ACL. We will keep you posted on this one as well, but give Zach Ertz, Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper a knee-jerk bump on your rankings for the time being.

NEWS: Nick Foles holds all-time record with 2INTs in 2014; Jeremy Maclin looking fantastic?

Eagles QB Nick Foles currently holds the NFL record for least amount of interceptions (2INTs) in a season where at least 25TD passes were thrown. According to other reports, Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin looks ‘fantastic’ right now in practice.

SMITTY: Nick Foles has a lot of believers, but for some reason he also has a lot of doubters still. The guy is proven. If you think 2INTs/11 games in a high-octane, fast-moving offense isn’t proof enough, I can’t help you. If you aren’t impressed with his all-time (tied) NFL record of 7TDs in one game, I cannot help you. If you aren’t seeing consistency developing here after the guy was on a 16-game pace (through 11 games) for 4,200 passing yards, 39 passing TDs, 300+ rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs (and Pro Bowl MVP last year), I cannot help you. Well, maybe I can if you give our Upside Board a read. The loss of DeSean Jackson worries me zero given the additions of rookie Jordan Matthews, Darren Sproles and return of Jeremy Maclin. Riley Cooper and Zach Ertz are also high-upside guys without question. Toss in the fact that Foles now has arguably two 60-reception receivers in both LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, this is arguably the best group of receivers/rushers in the league. Looking for Week 1 Power Rankings on all the players above?