Archive for fantasy football 2016

Week 10 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 10 Waiver Wire

smitty staff

James Starks, GB RB – Starks (knee) returned to practice last week, and could play this week. Ty Montgomery is not setup to continue his ‘slash’ type role, so GB will likely welcome back Starks as the lead rusher. He should be grabbed in all leagues and could have very solid flex-value, if not more, within 1-2 weeks! Note, Joique Bell could sign with GB today. Monitor this and react accordingly.

DuJuan Harris, SF RB – With Carlos Hyde out in Week 9, Harris totaled an impressive 59 yards on 10 carries while pulling in five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Hyde is the starter, but Harris is the clear handcuff and flex-worthy if starting.

Paul Perkins, NYG RB – Rashad Jennings will likely continue to get the goal line work if healthy, but Paul Perkins had 11 carries for 32 yards in the Giants’ Week 9 win over the Eagles. This is a RBBC but Perkins has nice upside and stash value!

Chris Ivory, JAC RB – The guy was dropped in handfuls of leagues, but in Week 9, he ran for 107 yards on 18 carries. He is no lock to be consistent, but should be owned in most leagues.

More Adds

Steve Smith
Char. West

Week 9 Buy Low Candidates

smitty staff

Below are some Week 9 Buy Lows. In need of a change or a spark to get back in the 2016 playoff hunt? Target some of these players on the cheap before this week’s games.

Todd Gurley | RB Rams

Folks, he is a top 1-3RB talent-wise, and he is getting the carries. The problem is that he has been facing eight-man fronts, and his team can’t move the football down the field. The good news is that he has already had his bye, so if you acquire him, he’s bye-free moving forward. Plus, the Rams may have addressed the offensive struggles during the bye week, and while there is no true solution for that offense given the QB situation, there is a chance they change-up their game plan a bit to free up the run. Could he struggle all year? Sure. But, he is worth the risk given you can get him at super-low RB1-type value, and RB2-type value in some cases. That’s extremely-low risk and high-reward.

DeAndre Hopkins | WR Texans

This situation is the same as the Todd Gurley situation up above. Is there risk that the offenses continue to hold back both Gurley and Hopkins? Sure, but both are proven talent-wise. I have ZERO doubt that both Gurley and Hopkins are top 1-5 talents at their position. ZERO. The disappointing seasons both are having are offensive-related, which may or may not be fixed in Weeks 9-16, but they are both worth trading for if the price is right. I’ve seen Hopkins go at high-end WR2-type value. Steal.

Allen Robinson | WR Jaguars

I know, he is on the list every week and he keeps disappointing. The targets are there, folks, he is massively targeted, but he isn’t seeing a ton of catchable passes. Will it change? Will things stay the same? Tough to say, but a losing team means lots of 3rd- and 4th-quarter passing, so my money is on ARob being a HUGE steal moving forward, even if Borltes is hit and miss and still throwing picks left and right. ARob is a top 5-9WR to me moving forward (and especially in dynasty in case your league is a dynasty league). I know that sounds crazy to some, but keep in mind I would never buy him in that 5-10WR value in redraft, as you don’t have to. Anyone buying him as a top 5-10WR in redraft is not using the market values to their advantage. That’s bad management. Buy him at WR2-type value, because he can easily be had at that value, which he’d earn on a still-disappointing season.

Donte Moncrief | WR Colts

The receiver is on his way back to full-strength this week, and even last week, his first game back from injury, he pulled in 40 yards and a TD. I expect a high-end WR2-type season moving forward if he can stay healthy. However, do NOT buy him at that value (high-end WR2-type value), or you are ruining all the upside with your acquisition. Buy-low and hope for big play!

Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman | RB Falcons

After a disappointing yardage outing in Week 8, a week he was suppose to explode given Coleman was out, many Freeman owners are considering selling Freeman at just solid value, not high value. If the owner in your league also has Coleman, buy both at less-than-high value and you might just have yourself a top 3-5RB moving forward (with the duo). They won’t be buy-low types, but they won’t cost you the kind of value they can still hold, in my opinion. Coleman might miss Week 9, but he isn’t yet ruled out. Freeman will likely have a big Week 9 if Coleman sits, and buying at merely solid-type value will be out the window. He will be overpriced if he goes nuts this week. Owning both rushers is the key, though.

Derrick Henry | RB Titans

It looks like DeMarco Murray (toe) is going to be ok for Week 9, or at least the week after… his MRI results came back negative. However, he is an overused rusher and he was abused in Dallas in such a way it shortens careers. You will find no one higher on Murray/Henry entering August drafts (or even moving forward — I love the duo, still!); I had the duo as a top 5RB entering 2016. That said, there are different ways to attack all this, and if you don’t own both, and especially don’t own Murray, see if the current Henry owner (if that owner doesn’t own Murray) will trade Henry to you for a player that can help that owner in terms of their lineup. With all the byes and injuries right now, someone that was crafty enough to draft just Henry (if they weren’t lucky enough to grab both Titans RBs like we advised in August), that owner might be hit hard with injury/bye and they may sell off their ‘what if’ prospect in Henry to better their playoff hunt chances. Just check out who owns Henry in your league and see what’s what, it’s worth a look, especially if that owner just owns Henry and is struggling with injury or bye. If Henry starts games in 2016, he will be a top 5-10 RB, if not higher, per start. That’s how good this starting slot is in Tennessee, and it’s why I loved, and still do, the Murray/Henry combo. I still love the duo, and if you own the duo, keep them… ride it out, you’re golden with both backs!

Radio: Week 4 Show (Tues)

russ-staff

Check out Russ Bliss’ Week 4 Radio Show, The Red Zone, where he and Smitty talk Week 4 injuries, trade advice, waiver wire advice and start bench advice.

Play Week 4 Show!

Week 3 Buy Lows/Sell Highs

smitty staff

Ok, so we are already heading into Week 3 and many teams/owners have been hit hard by injuries. Maybe you lost Adrian Peterson? Maybe Doug Martin? How about Corey Coleman? Ok, well, let’s dig into a list of names that are good buy lows, and also a list of names that are good targets to sell off on the hight (maybe to get some of these buy lows). Here we go.

Buy Lows

Devonta Freeman (RB/ATL) – He comes with a boatload of risk and upside at this point. If you need a spark and are willing to take the risk that he shares carries all year, roll the dice!

Allen Robinson (WR/JAC) – The dude is elite and just waiting to drop a big game. Buy low while his owners worry he had a fluke of a season last year. He is easily a top 12 overall pick if drafting today.

Blake Bortles (QB/JAC) – Like ARob above, and their success is linked, I think breakout is near. Trade for both ARob and Bortles before they drop huge games this week or next week.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK) – After a big week one, he had a disappointing Week 2, and for some reason that one single bad week already has many wondering if he has WR1-type ability. Really? This is a top 4-6 fantasy WR if you ask me, and I buy low any chance I get, even if this isn’t a huge, huge buy low (and more of a slight down tick in value).

Sell High

Philip Rivers (QB/SD) – I’ve seen two owners land Aaron Rodgers using Rivers already. After two weeks! See if you can get this kind of value for the passer (Rivers), who has lost both of his top two receiving options.

Cam Newton (QB/CAR) – I can’t stress this enough, but ONLY trade Newt if you are selling through the rough, and I’m talking an arm and a leg. And, only do this if you own Newt but have to make a move to stay in the mix. Meaning, your team is underperforming outside of Newt, or you were hit hard with injuries. This is the time to not consider him a bust, no, that’s not what selling high always means… it just means, in this case, you need to get two pieces for one, and the kind of deal I’d look to do is a Bortles/Landry or Bortles/McCoy… something like that is possible using Newt, and something like that could revive a season.

DeAngelo Williams (RB/CAR) – I almost say let it ride if you own DWill and cannot get awesome value. Keep in mind that Bell may struggle a bit coming back, maybe he even gets hurt trying to do too much too fast. It happens all the time. However, if you can sell high, and I mean for a strong starting piece for your lineup, consider the trade. Or, get crafty and at least trade for a stash in waiting, like Derrick Henry (as one example).

Matthew Stafford (QB/DET) – I don’t see Stafford continue to play at the level he is playing at, and I think he can be sold high to improve a team moving forward.

Matt Forte (RB/NYJ) – This is again one of those situations like Cam Newton above, don’t sell low or even at even value. Sell high or not at all. Forte is playing awesome, and he may continue that awesome play. But, if your team is in need, and only if it’s in need, consider selling high for two players. Just make sure it’s an awesome deal or hold tight!

Radio: Week 2 fantasy talk

smitty staff

Listen to both Russ Bliss and Smitty talk Week 2 fantasy football on Russ’ Weekly Red Zone fantasy football radio show on NBC Sports Radio 1060am.

Listen to Week 2 Show

Week 2 Waiver Wire

smitty staff

Note: Spencer Ware is not likely available in most all leagues, but check, as the guy had 70 rushing and a score on the ground and over 100 receiving yards through the air in Week 1. He was also a breakout of ours this year, another reason he shouldn’t be available in your league. Ok, so here are the Week 2 Players to consider adding entering Week 2.

Week 2 Waiver Wire

  • Willie Snead – A strong WR3/4 player in fantasy moving forward; he pulled in 9-of-9 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Raiders.
  • Mohamed Sanu – A strong WR3/4 player in fantasy moving forward; he pulled in 5-of-8 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.
  • Theo Riddick – Riddick rushed seven times for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and he also caught 5-of-5 targets for 63 yards and another touchdown. He has RB2 appeal in all PPR formats.
  • Chris Hogan – Not likely available in many leagues, it’s worth checking! He is the No. 2 in NE, and that means something, especially when Brady comes back from his suspension. In Week 1, Hogan grabbed 60 yards and a touchdown.
  • Carson Wentz – The Eagles QB has a bright future and makes for a solid add even in redraft.
  • Eli Rogers – The NO. 2 in PIT this year could spell a good WR3/4 season in fantasy!
  • Travis Benjamin – Keenan Allen is now out (ACL), so this guy is the team’s new No. 1 WR, and that makes him a solid WR3/4 moving forward.
  • Will Fuller – He caught 5 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and should be owned as a WR3/4 moving forward.
  • Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 264 passing yards and one touchdown in Week 1 at Arizona. Until Brady returns, he is a solid backup passer in deep leagues.

More

  • Shane Vereen
  • Josh McCown
  • Quincy Enunwa
  • Anquan Boldin
  • Alfred Morris
  • Mike Wallace
  • Cole Beasley
  • Tyrell Williams

Radio: Dak Prescott to breakout in 2016?

smitty staff

Take a listen/watch both Russ Bliss and Smitty talk up Dak Prescott heading into the 2016 fantasy football season. Is Dak Prescott set to breakout?

Updated ADP Data (2016)

smitty staff

Below is current 2016 ADP Data (Average Draft Position Data), which was created using a number of reliable ADP data sources in the industry. It’s super important for all fantasy football drafters to take a fresh set of ADP Data with them to their draft, as you need to know where players are getting taken on average. This helps you avoid reaching too early for sleepers and helps you avoid missing out on drafting your targeted players.

ADP Data | 2016

Date: 8/28/16

Pick Name Pos Team Bye
1.01 Antonio Brown WR PIT 8
1.02 Todd Gurley RB LA 8
1.03 Julio Jones WR ATL 11
1.04 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG 8
1.05 David Johnson RB ARI 9
1.06 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 6
1.07 A.J. Green WR CIN 9
1.08 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 7
1.09 LeVeon Bell RB PIT 8
1.10 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 9
1.11 Dez Bryant WR DAL 7
1.12 Lamar Miller RB HOU 9
2.01 Allen Robinson WR JAC 5
2.02 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 9
2.03 Jamaal Charles RB KC 5
2.04 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ 11
2.05 Eddie Lacy RB GB 4
2.06 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 11
2.07 Jordy Nelson WR GB 4
2.08 LeSean McCoy RB BUF 10
2.09 Mike Evans WR TB 6
2.10 Keenan Allen WR SD 11
2.11 Mark Ingram RB NO 5
2.12 Doug Martin RB TB 6
3.01 Amari Cooper WR OAK 10
3.02 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 9
3.03 Brandin Cooks WR NO 5
3.04 CJ Anderson RB DEN 11
3.05 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 10
3.06 Cam Newton QB CAR 7
3.07 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 11
3.08 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 4
3.09 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR 7
3.10 Carlos Hyde RB SF 8
3.11 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 10
3.12 Randall Cobb WR GB 4
4.01 DeMarco Murray RB TEN 13
4.02 Jarvis Landry WR MIA 8
4.03 Jeremy Hill RB CIN 9
4.04 Matt Forte RB NYJ 11
4.05 Jeremy Langford RB CHI 9
4.06 Jordan Reed TE WAS 9
4.07 Andrew Luck QB IND 10
4.08 Thomas Rawls RB SEA 5
4.09 Jeremy Maclin WR KC 5
4.10 Julian Edelman WR NE 9
4.11 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 7
4.12 Donte Moncrief WR IND 10
5.01 Latavius Murray RB OAK 10
5.02 Eric Decker WR NYJ 11
5.03 Greg Olsen TE CAR 7
5.04 Russell Wilson QB SEA 5
5.05 Ryan Mathews RB PHI 4
5.06 Melvin Gordon RB SD 11
5.07 Josh Gordon WR CLE 13
5.08 Arian Foster RB MIA 8
5.09 Golden Tate WR DET 10
5.10 Doug Baldwin WR SEA 5
5.11 Michael Floyd WR ARI 9
5.12 Drew Brees QB NO 5
6.01 Allen Hurns WR JAC 5
6.02 Marvin Jones WR DET 10
6.03 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT 8
6.04 Ameer Abdullah RB DET 10
6.05 Rashad Jennings RB NYG 8
6.06 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 8
6.07 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 9
6.08 Tyler Lockett WR SEA 5
6.09 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 11
6.10 Tom Brady QB NE 9
6.11 John Brown WR ARI 9
6.12 Frank Gore RB IND 10
7.01 Matt Jones RB WAS 9
7.02 Travis Kelce TE KC 5
7.03 Coby Fleener TE NO 5
7.04 Delanie Walker TE TEN 13
7.05 Giovani Bernard RB CIN 9
7.06 Duke Johnson RB CLE 13
7.07 Carson Palmer QB ARI 9
7.08 Blake Bortles QB JAC 5
7.09 Derrick Henry RB TEN 13
7.10 Jordan Matthews WR PHI 4
7.11 Tyler Eifert TE CIN 9
7.12 LeGarrette Blount RB NE 9
8.01 DeVante Parker WR MIA 8
8.02 Chris Ivory RB JAC 5
8.03 Danny Woodhead RB SD 11
8.04 Justin Forsett RB BAL 8
8.05 Sterling Shepard WR NYG 8
8.06 Gary Barnidge TE CLE 13
8.07 Eli Manning QB NYG 8
8.08 Corey Coleman WR CLE 13
8.09 DeSean Jackson WR WAS 9
8.10 TJ Yeldon RB JAC 5
8.11 Kevin White WR CHI 9
8.12 Michael Crabtree WR OAK 10
9.01 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE 13
9.02 Jay Ajayi RB MIA 8
9.03 Philip Rivers QB SD 11
9.04 Julius Thomas TE JAC 5
9.05 Stefon Diggs WR MIN 6
9.06 Denver Defense DEF DEN 11
9.07 Dion Lewis RB NE 9
9.08 Charles Sims RB TB 6
9.09 Christine Michael RB SEA 5
9.10 Kamar Aiken WR BAL 8
9.11 Derek Carr QB OAK 10
9.12 Tevin Coleman RB ATL 11
10.01 Arizona Defense DEF ARI 9
10.02 Antonio Gates TE SD 11
10.03 Devontae Booker RB DEN 11
10.04 Torrey Smith WR SF 8
10.05 Seattle Defense DEF SEA 5
10.06 Bilal Powell RB NYJ 11
10.07 Travis Benjamin WR SD 11
10.08 Devin Funchess WR CAR 7
10.09 Tyrod Taylor QB BUF 10
10.10 Markus Wheaton WR PIT 8
10.11 Michael Thomas WR NO 5
10.12 Carolina Defense DEF CAR 7
11.01 Jimmy Graham TE SEA 5
11.02 James White RB NE 9
11.03 Kirk Cousins QB WAS 9
11.04 Matthew Stafford QB DET 10
11.05 Willie Snead WR NO 5
11.06 Zach Ertz TE PHI 4
11.07 Kansas City Defense DEF KC 5
11.08 DeAndre Washington RB OAK 10
11.09 Tavon Austin WR LA 8
11.10 Alfred Morris RB DAL 7
11.11 Martellus Bennett TE NE 9
11.12 Mohamed Sanu WR ATL 11
12.01 Steve Smith WR BAL 8
12.02 Vincent Jackson WR TB 6
12.03 Houston Defense DEF HOU 9
12.04 Jameis Winston QB TB 6
12.05 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 9
12.06 Andy Dalton QB CIN 9
12.07 Minnesota Defense DEF MIN 6
12.08 Dwayne Allen TE IND 10
12.09 Chris Johnson RB ARI 9
12.10 Rishard Matthews WR TEN 13
12.11 Tajae Sharpe WR TEN 13
12.12 Theo Riddick RB DET 10
13.01 James Starks RB GB 4
13.02 Matt Ryan QB ATL 11
13.03 Marcus Mariota QB TEN 13
13.04 Robert Griffin III QB CLE 13
13.05 Tony Romo QB DAL 7
13.06 Stephen Gostkowski PK NE 9
13.07 Charcandrick West RB KC 5
13.08 Spencer Ware RB SEA 5
13.09 Sammie Coates WR PIT 8
13.10 NY Jets Defense DEF NYJ 11
13.11 Jerick McKinnon RB MIN 6
13.12 Phillip Dorsett WR IND 10
14.01 Terrelle Pryor WR CLE 13
14.02 Darren Sproles RB PHI 4
14.03 Los Angeles Defense DEF LA 8
14.04 Justin Tucker PK BAL 8
14.05 Ladarius Green TE PIT 8
14.06 Jason Witten TE DAL 7
14.07 Laquon Treadwell WR MIN 6
14.08 Jared Cook TE GB 4
14.09 Terrance West RB BAL 8
14.10 Zach Miller TE CHI 9
14.11 Mike Wallace WR BAL 8
14.12 Steven Hauschka PK SEA 5

Revisiting the 2016 Rookies

smitty staff

It’s the middle of August and a lot has changed over the last couple months, especially in terms of the 2016 rookies… it’s time to revisit the 2016 Rookie Class. Below I will rank the rookies, and provide commentary for certain players.

Note: These rankings are ranked with a dynasty/keeper frame of mind, but I provide commentary for both yearly leaguers and dynasty leaguers.

Top 10 Rookies

1. Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL – By far the 1.01 in 2016 in any rookie-only draft. He has top 6-10 overall value in all redraft leagues, which is super high for a rookie. He has that much appeal in DAL in 2016!
2. Corey Coleman WR CLE – This kid could be a top 10WR of the future. He is polished and NFL ready. He is my No. 2 overall in terms of rookies in dynasty.
2. Derrick Henry RB TEN – While I wonder how many years he can play at his highest level (at this size), he has fantastic upside for the next few years. DeMarco Murray is the starter in TEN, but if he gets hurt, Henry should thrive in 2016. Then I consider selling high at that point (if in dynasty).
3. Laquon Treadwell WR MIN – Lots of future appeal, but with Bridgewater tossing him the ball, I think Treadwell could be spotty and inconsistent in 2016, as he will naturally have ups and downs as a rookie, but he will also be limited when Bridgewater isn’t throwing a lot.
4. Kenneth Dixon RB BAL – This is my monster sleeper of this class, as I think he thrives if getting the carries. It’s a crowded backfield, though, so it’s tough to predict this situation. Just grab and stash in redraft, and get excited for the long-term.
5. Devontae Booker RB DEN – After Dixon, this is my next biggest sleeper rookie. He could be starting by mid-season, if not sooner. That’s not a lock, that’s a bold prediction, so draft/trade accordingly, don’t reach, as that would defeat the term ‘sleeper’ and all the upside that goes along with acquiring a sleeper.
6. Josh Doctson WR WAS – Nice long-term appeal and decent redraft appeal.
7. Sterling Shepard WR NYG – An exciting player that I want to get excited about, as everyone seems to be expecting so much out of this kid; however, if Odell Beckham is healthy, you have to wonder if many could be disappointed in 2016. He has nice long-term appeal, though.
8. Michael Thomas WR NO – Exciting receiver in a situation that could have him maturing fast.
9. Josh Ferguson RB IND – Nice sleeper potential in Indy.
10. Tyler Boyd WR CIN – Nice future and solid skill set.

The Rest

Will Fuller WR HOU
Wendell Smallwood RB PHI
DeAndre Washington RB OAK
Keith Marshall RB WAS
Alex Collins RB SEA
Pharoh Cooper WR LA
Leonte Carroo WR MIA
Paul Perkins RB NYG
C.J. Prosise RB SEA
Jordan Howard RB CHI
Kenyan Drake RB MIA
Jared Goff QB LA
Hunter Henry TE SD
Carson Wentz QB PHI
Jonathan Williams RB BUF
Tyler Ervin RB HOU
Braxton Miller WR HOU
Rashard Higgins WR CLE
Malcolm Mitchell WR NE
Paxton Lynch QB DEN