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Fantasy Draft Prep: QBs

smitty staff

With 2016 fantasy football drafts around the corner, it’s time to breakdown all of the impact fantasy football players. We will start with the AFC QBs. The NFC will soon follow.

QBs (AFC) Coming This Week


BUF: Tyrod Taylor QB – He enters a very important year. Is he the real deal? His 3,035 yards and 20TDs/6INTs was rather impressive in his 14 games, and his 568 yards and 4TDs on the ground makes him a very sneaky low-end QB1 in all formats. If you draft him, have a back-up plan!

MIA: Ryan Tannehill QB – After four seasons, it’s rather clear what we have here in this QB. He is a 4,000/25-27TD passer. He has two amazing talents to throw to in Landry and Parker, so we could see him dance in the 28-32TD range during some seasons to come, but this is a low-end fantasy QB1 right here.

NE: Tom Brady QB – It’s hard to believe Brady has played 16 seasons. He should have a top 5QB season left in the tank, but that will be his ‘pace’ stat wise, as he will face a four game suspension to start the season. If you need a QB in any kind of existing league, Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid fill-in.

NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB – Fitz just inked his new deal, which pays him $12 million. It’s fully guaranteed and has more money in incentives, so this is the Jets’ starter, make no mistake about it. After an impressive 3,905/31TD season in 2016, he makes a fine QB2 in larger 2016 redraft leagues.

BAL: Joe Flacco QB – He could miss the entire preseason (as of July 27). This makes him a risky low-end QB1 in 2016, as he could be rusty and not have solid timing with his receivers come Week 1. With how deep the QB pool is in 2016, he should be avoided as a starter unless you’re in a larger league.

CIN: Andy Dalton QB – Fully healthy from his thumb injury, Dalton enters 2016 as a high-end QB2. The QB pool is just far too deep this year to start Dalton as a QB1, unless your league is huge.

CLE: Robert Griffin III QB – Equal parts bounce-back and risk, there is some appeal here entering 2016. He shouldn’t be anyone’s QB1, but in 2QB leagues, or as a solid back-up, RG3 at least has a shot to throw for 3,200 yards, 18-20TDs, while totaling 300-400/2-3TDs on the ground. He could just as easily bust, but that’s why no one should make him a fantasy starter out of the gate.

PIT: Ben Roethlisberger QB – This guy is always rock solid and makes for a fine QB5-7 in any format. His ADP is about the 6th-round, which feels about right.

HOU: Brock Osweiler QB – Os is totally unproven and doesn’t have amazing measurables. If you take his 8 played games last year, he would have totaled 3,934 passing yards, 20TDs and 12INTs. Os has enough talent to get DeAndre Hopkins the targets that he needs, which is great news, and he has a solid rusher in Lamar Miller. The talent surrounding him could have him totaling those same 2015 numbers (extrapolated out), which isn’t a bad season. He may have more than 12INTs, though.

IND: Andrew Luck QB – He is completely underrated entering 2016. I’ve seen some magazines and ‘sources’ out there that have this guy as the 4th or 5th QB entering 2016. Take advantage of his bad 2015 campaign. He has top 1-3QB written all over him and he is a monster steal at his current 5.01 ADP. There may not be many players with more upside given their ADP than Luck!

JAC: Blake Bortles QB – Everything said about Luck above can be said here, minus the bad campaign last year. Bortles had a great season last year, and Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns just lock in his top 4-6 fantasy QB status if you ask me. With an 8th-round ADP, he and Luck have some of the best draft value in 2016.

TEN: Marcus Mariota QB – He is expected to run more in 2016, which is great news, as his 252 rushing yards and 2TDs from last year could double to 400+ and 4-5. Mix that with what should be 3,800-4,000 passing yards and 27-30TDs, that’s a sneaky QB1 in 2016.

DEN: Mark Sanchez QB – Not fantasy relevant and may not start for long in 2016 (if he even makes it into the lineup for Week 1).

KC: Alex Smith QB – A fantasy QB2.

OAK: Derek Carr QB – Capable of top 5-10 fantasy QB numbers, but only costs 9th-round value. Amari Cooper could explode this year; these two will connect early and often!

SD: Philip Rivers QB – Always good for 4,300-4,500 yards, 28-30TDs, he remains a quiet fantasy QB1. He is a great QB to pair with a similar type talent, which makes for a good match-up situation (if that strategy plays to your strengths).

Russ’ 2016 eBook Released

Russ Bliss’ eBook Is Here!!!

russ bliss ebook - 2014 fantasy football starters

Russ Bliss’ 2016 eBook is below!

Updated: 7/30/16

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DRAFT TIP: Research & Prepare!


It’s that time again, the dog days of summer are winding down and we begin mulling heavily over the pre-season rankings visualizing what we want our 2015 Fantasy Squad to look like. Of course, what we want it to look like and how it actually fills out is not always what we expected, then we begin to feel the on-set of an acute neurosis called P.D.S.D (Post-Draft-Stress Disorder). OK, let’s relax a second, breathe! This is where it starts and before we know it, we’ll be singing Auld Lang Syne., really, time flies this time of year!

The Key To Drafting

Here we go. Research is a key to not drafting a losing team, you can never start too early and you can never have too much information. Use ADP’s as a starting point, refer to mock drafts as another gauge. Fantasy football drafts are a fluid process and rarely go in the order we wish so be prepared divert from plan A,B and sometimes C, opportunities will be missed but could also be gained if prepared, I believe that is called luck, when preparation meets opportunity? I approach each draft with different philosophies though using the same method by collecting the historical scoring data from each league to create my sheets, in this case a PPR re-draft, I tier my positions up using the Value based method, grabbing the point totals from each position and average them out this provides a nice guide when determining if I take a RB or WR at this spot?

Instance; over the last three years in this league the #1 RB averaged 375 points the top WR 351 points, the #12 RB 218 points, #12 WR’s 263 points. If your picking up in the front of the draft the first 4 picks you should be able to net a 300 point RB, if you pick at the back end 1:12 and 2:01 the number 12 and 13 are looking solid to me and would strongly consider going WR/WR with the prospect collecting 520 points right there.

Other factors to watch are players coming off of injuries, if you draft an aged or oft-injured running back be sure to hand-cuff the backup, cover your BYE weeks. And, finally, though a few years back I fell victim to a Kaepernick, Gore, Bolden, 9er D team in the post season that won the it all, (I still haven’t turn the page on that one!), do not draft with your heart, though as previously noted there can be an exception to the rule, Packers fans, you should be alright this year!