Archive for buy low

Week 11 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 11 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant and more.

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 10 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 7 Buy Lows

smitty staff

You want two Fantasy Buy-Low Candidates heading into Week 7? I have you covered. Last Week I practically begged fantasy owners to trade for Odell Beckham and Lamar Miller before they exploded in Week 6, they were dirt cheap compared to their drafted value, too. Well, this week:

Aaron Rodgers (QB/GB)

The guy is the talk of fantasy right now, and many are calling him a bust, or total garbage vs the cost paid to draft him back in August. I laugh at this. Just like I laughed at those writing off Odell Beckham before last week, Amari Cooper weeks before that… look, ARod has just one game with just 1TD (last week). If you include his rushing TDS, he has had 3TDs, 2TDs, 4TDs and 2TDS in Weeks 1-5 (with a bye in Week 4). While he has a 4INTs and zero 300+ yard games, the great news is that he is scoring and he has all day to throw the football. This is a recipe for a turn around, and the loss of both Eddie Lacy and James Starks is going to shake up the offensive game plan, something that I firmly believe will jolt this offense back into being an extremely high powered passing arsenal. Buy low and pay what looks like value outside of the top 1-5QBs. That’s madness… the kind of madness that can win you a league!

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU)

Everything said about Odell Beckham above can be said here. Hopkins is a top 5WR, folks, slow start or not. Buy low or be sorry. The risk is built into his decreased value. Now is the final call.

Week 6 Buy Low Sell High

smitty staff

Below are some Buy Lows and Sell Highs heading into Week 6. If you are in need of some wins, considers selling high on a few players even if they might still continue their solid play.

Sell High

DeMarco Murray (RB/TEN) – As I said above, selling high doesn’t mean you predict bust, the player still might play well all season. But, when values are increased, sometimes you can make moves you normally cannot make. Murray was a 4th rounder in some cases, and given he is the No. 1 RB in fantasy football through 5 weeks, it’s time to consider selling high. I just got Odell Beckham in one league using the guy. Now, an argument can be made that Murray is worth ODB, but if I’m being honest with myself and ranking players for just Weeks 6-16, Murray is in the second-round. I have him high in the second, he is playing amazing football, but ODB (in a PPR) is in my top 5-7 overall still.

TY Hilton (WR/IND) – I love the guy, but he will have big games and bad games, sometimes that isn’t something a team needing wins can afford. Consider selling high and buy a struggling WR or RB.

Melvin Gordon (RB/SD) – Again, do not sell thinking he will fail moving forward, he is a beast and was a Bold Prediction of mine, so I believe in him moving forward, but his value is high despite his fumbles… he could potentially get you a struggling DeAndre Hopkins or Odell Beckham if you are in need of a WR. That is a huge sell high and great move (either WR).

Buy Low

Odell Beckham (WR/NYG) – The guy is a top 5WR, maybe even top 2-3, yet everyone is willing to give up on him after five weeks. He only has 1TD this year, but it came last week, and his breakout is on the way, just like Amari Cooper’s was entering Week 5. Buy low and get him at low first or high second round value, that’s how low his value seems to be!

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU) – Like ODB above, it’s amazing to see people undervalue a top 2-4WR after just five weeks. And, in his case, he has had two big-time games to go with some bad weeks, unlike ODB. Buy low, it’s madness to see him being ranked outside the top 10-12 overall, and I’ve seen this in serval cases in forum topics.

Lamar Miller (RB/HOU) – While there is a chance that Miller never gets the touches, his lowered value right now kind of builds in that risk. He has top 5RB upside moving forward, but is valued more in the 6-10 range for RBs. He’s worth the risk of getting at that 7-10RB value.

Week 5 Buy-Lows

smitty staff

As we head into the weekend of Week 5 of the 2016 fantasy football season, try pulling off a last minute trade for one of these undervalued players.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR/HOU)

After scoring one TD in each of his first two games this year, Hopkins has had a bad couple weeks in Weeks 3 and 4. However, it’s not like he has struggled all year long. Still, many are trying to sell him off quick, and I say take advantage. You may not get him for low-end WR type value, but I’ve seen some pretty bad trades happen already in forum topics… try buying a good half a tier below top 5WR value… he is easily a top 5WR moving forward if you ask me.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK)

He will be on this list every week until he explodes. He is a WR1, people, yet some are honestly asking if they should bench him this week. This is a sign that there is never a better time to buy low, even in dynasty, but especially in redraft!

Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI)/Jordan Howard (RB/CHI)/DeAndre Washington (RB/OAK)

All three of these guys could be hidden gems on the rise. Every year a RB comes almost out of nowhere, at least in a general sense of the term, and one of these RBs might be just that, if not two of the three. Washington is likely going to start Week 5, as Latavius Murray is expected to sit this one out. Smallwood could lose some carries to Ryan Mathews should he play Week 5, and Mathews is now expected to play, however, Smallwood could be the future in PHI, and he might get used a lot in this one. There is risk Mathews gets almost all the carries, so be careful starting Smallwood this week (he is safer as a stash/project in waiting). Jordan Howard is the player we like most, for now at least, as he has no one really competing for carries, as Langford is hurt. Howard looks good too, and he could be a monster steal from here on out. Congrats if you grabbed him back when we said to. If you can buy low on any of these guys, maybe in a multi-player deal, I say go for it. Sometimes multi-player deals dilute some players rising in value, as not many owners will just up and trade you one for one on a guy like Howard who is on the rise. You have to get creative with your offers and trade thinking.

Week 4 Buy Low / Sell High

smitty staff

In need of some Buy-Low/Sell-High candidates heading into Week 4 of the 2016 fantasy football season? Here are some names to both target and potentially sell-high.

Week 4: Buy-Low

Lamar Miller – With two mediocre Weeks in a row, some owners might be worried about Miller being a disappointment. Take advantage of this. Yes, he only rushed for 83 yards and only had 2 receptions for 14 yards and no TDs in Week 2, and 80 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 27 yards and 0TDs in Week 3, but he is the team’s workhorse, and I think a breakout is right around the corner. The time to buy low is now or never, and it sound like you can, at times, get the runner at near third-round value if we were to toss a price tag on him.

Amari Cooper – After dropping 6/137/0TDs in Week 1, Coop has only pulled in 5/71/0TDs and 4/62/0TDs since. I fully expect the receiver to be a top 4-7WR moving forward. For more on his dynasty value, checkout my SleeperU Dynasty Write-up on the guy!

Allen Robinson – Like Cooper, a slightly disappointing start has some current ARob owners on edge. Try and get him for almost third-round value if tossing a value on him. It can be done. Maybe not in every league, as some owners just don’t trade at all no matter what. But, I’ve seen him had for even less heading into this week!

Brandin Cooks – He exploded in Week 1 with 6/143/2TDs, but went quiet in Weeks 2 and 3. Well, he is Brees’ secret weapon this year, and Brees is on fire. I’m sorry, two dud weeks in a row don’t scare me off from wanting this guy in every league at what will likely be value outside of the top 25 if we were to draft today. Trade for him at that value!

Week 4: Sell-High

Christine Michael (RB/SEA) – I cannot stress this enough… DO NOT sell-low or assume my advising to sell CMichael high means I don’t believe in the guy. I love the guy, and I hope he continues to get starter carries. But, fantasy football is a business, and if your team is hurting and you need wins, sometimes selling high allows you to repair and built back a disappointing team. See what you can get. Buy low on an an Allen Robinson if you need a WR, or go get an Amari Cooper. Those are just two examples.

Carlos Hyde (RB/SF) – I love his skill set, but staying healthy is a concern. So, I am NOT predicting injury or bust, I’m merely pointing out that his value is high and he is a good person to trade if you need to move pieces around to get wins.

Eddie Lacy (RB/GB) – He could continue to get carries, but selling high is just plain smart given Lacy has disappointed fantasy owners so many times in the past. And, with his still-heavy weight, injury is more likely than when he was a touch slimmer. Trade high!

Week 3 Buy Lows/Sell Highs

smitty staff

Ok, so we are already heading into Week 3 and many teams/owners have been hit hard by injuries. Maybe you lost Adrian Peterson? Maybe Doug Martin? How about Corey Coleman? Ok, well, let’s dig into a list of names that are good buy lows, and also a list of names that are good targets to sell off on the hight (maybe to get some of these buy lows). Here we go.

Buy Lows

Devonta Freeman (RB/ATL) – He comes with a boatload of risk and upside at this point. If you need a spark and are willing to take the risk that he shares carries all year, roll the dice!

Allen Robinson (WR/JAC) – The dude is elite and just waiting to drop a big game. Buy low while his owners worry he had a fluke of a season last year. He is easily a top 12 overall pick if drafting today.

Blake Bortles (QB/JAC) – Like ARob above, and their success is linked, I think breakout is near. Trade for both ARob and Bortles before they drop huge games this week or next week.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK) – After a big week one, he had a disappointing Week 2, and for some reason that one single bad week already has many wondering if he has WR1-type ability. Really? This is a top 4-6 fantasy WR if you ask me, and I buy low any chance I get, even if this isn’t a huge, huge buy low (and more of a slight down tick in value).

Sell High

Philip Rivers (QB/SD) – I’ve seen two owners land Aaron Rodgers using Rivers already. After two weeks! See if you can get this kind of value for the passer (Rivers), who has lost both of his top two receiving options.

Cam Newton (QB/CAR) – I can’t stress this enough, but ONLY trade Newt if you are selling through the rough, and I’m talking an arm and a leg. And, only do this if you own Newt but have to make a move to stay in the mix. Meaning, your team is underperforming outside of Newt, or you were hit hard with injuries. This is the time to not consider him a bust, no, that’s not what selling high always means… it just means, in this case, you need to get two pieces for one, and the kind of deal I’d look to do is a Bortles/Landry or Bortles/McCoy… something like that is possible using Newt, and something like that could revive a season.

DeAngelo Williams (RB/CAR) – I almost say let it ride if you own DWill and cannot get awesome value. Keep in mind that Bell may struggle a bit coming back, maybe he even gets hurt trying to do too much too fast. It happens all the time. However, if you can sell high, and I mean for a strong starting piece for your lineup, consider the trade. Or, get crafty and at least trade for a stash in waiting, like Derrick Henry (as one example).

Matthew Stafford (QB/DET) – I don’t see Stafford continue to play at the level he is playing at, and I think he can be sold high to improve a team moving forward.

Matt Forte (RB/NYJ) – This is again one of those situations like Cam Newton above, don’t sell low or even at even value. Sell high or not at all. Forte is playing awesome, and he may continue that awesome play. But, if your team is in need, and only if it’s in need, consider selling high for two players. Just make sure it’s an awesome deal or hold tight!

Dynasty: AJ Green a good buy-low?

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Smitty is the owner of SleeperU.com, which now proudly powers STARTERS’ Dynasty Content.

Dynasty Player of the Week

Buy-Low: AJ Green

It’s actually head-scratching how undervalued AJ Green is right now in dynasty. His ADP in all formats, redraft and dynasty, has now entered the 2nd-round, which is awesome news if you’re crafty and looking to trade. Often times in dynasty leagues, fantasy owners think too far into the future. Green, turning 28 this July, is still capable of being a top 1-5 fantasy WR during any give season, and given WRs usually can play at an elite level through 32, he still has 3-4 years left as a player that can drop top 5ish fantasy wide receiver numbers. That’s a long time in dynasty, 3-4 years, yet so many focus on only obtaining players that are 23 and 24 years old. This approach often has fantasy owners rarely winning titles, as they are always chasing ‘the build’ of their team. One strategy I’ve used as of late, in leagues where I needed to shake things up, is to trade a top 1-3 ranked receiver, like an Odell Beckham, for an undervalued AJ Green, thus allowing me to ask for a nice upgrade elsewhere. It won’t fly now, but I was able to upgrade my 1.03 to the 1.01 using this so called ‘downgrade’ to AJ Green. Now I own Ezekiel Elliott because of that move. Again, that’s not a move anyone would do now, as the 1.01 has now become Elliott, but you get the point and you see how one can turn a so called ‘downgrade’ into something more. Believe in AJG, he still has tier one WR appeal for a handful of years!

Bounce-Back Players for 2016

Below are a list of just a few bounce-back fantasy football candidates heading into the 2016 NFL fantasy football season. Have a few names you want to toss out? Comment below!

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has reportedly lost 15-18 pounds since the end of last year. Some are even suggesting that he will enter 2016 in the best shape of his life. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him, but if he can be had at RB2 value entering 2016, and currently that’s the case, he has bounce-back written all over him.

Jordy Nelson

Another Packer with bounce-back written all over him. Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit last year, as did the Packers, and one reason is that Rodgers lost Jordy. Jordy is always underrated, but coming off injury, he is more likely to get overlooked than ever. Buy-low, at least until his ADP climbs back into stud range, and it may. Once it does, then he is a tad risky and the appeal is somewhat lost.

Andrew Luck

Most expect a bounce-back, but given that he and Aaron Rodgers both struggled last year, and now with Brady again looking at a 4-game suspension, QBs might fall further than they should in 2016. Take advantage, as Luck (and Rodgers) both have top 10 overall value, it’s just that QBs are waited on in almost every veteran fantasy football draft. At 3rd- and 4th-round value, we say don’t wait, be the one to snag either QB.

Jamaal Charles

He should bounce-back from injury nicely, for at least one season. Don’t spend a top 5RB pick on him, but if you can get him near 2nd-round value, or particularly at 2nd-round value, strike!

DeMarco Murray

Risky, sure, especially with a new team (TEN); however, he is still top 5-10RB skilled, and TEN wanted him, which is a change from his situation in PHI last year. His ADP is in the 3rd/4th, so the risk is very low, whereas the reward is 1st-round possible.

Two Players to Buy-Low For 2016?

Jay Ajayi | RB Dolphins

With Lamar Miller likely playing elsewhere in 2016, the Dolphins could turn to Jay Ajayi. Now, it’s important to call him a sleeper, not a sure bet, so don’t treat him as such, meaning do not buy-high or draft him, or trade for him, at stud levels. He is a sleeper! The Dolphins believe in him and he looks like an every-down back. His YPG weren’t impressive on the year last year, but if you watched him run, he has the ability to grind it out between the tackles and he has a smoothness to his game. We truly believe he will thrive if the Dolphins both do not retain Miller and do not draft a big name rusher (or acquire one through free agency), both possible. Stay tuned on this one, but scooping this runner up on the cheap in dynasty/keeper leagues is advised.

Andrew Luck | QB Colts

It’s easy to want to avoid Luck in 2016, as he frustrated so many all year long in 2015. Not only did he play below mediocre for much of the year, he got hurt around mid-season and did not return. He failed many. That said, it’s important to remember that he threw for 4761 yards and 40TDs the year prior (adding 3TDs rushing), and he is easily capable of 4500/38+TDs during any given season. He is 2nd-round worthy, but luckily his ADP (in redraft) is in the 3rd- to 4th-round range, which is STEAL territory. In redraft, if he continues to go in the late 3rd- or 4th-round, he will arguably be one of the biggest steals of 2016 drafts. The same can be said of Aaron Rodgers. Even if his value rises back in the 3rd and locks in, that’s still great value, yes, even if you can grab guys like Bortles rounds later. A 40TD QB in the 3rd or 4th is crazy good value. In dynasty, see if you can get close to this value… if so, strike a trade!