Archive for busts

Week 10 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 3 Buy Lows/Sell Highs

smitty staff

Ok, so we are already heading into Week 3 and many teams/owners have been hit hard by injuries. Maybe you lost Adrian Peterson? Maybe Doug Martin? How about Corey Coleman? Ok, well, let’s dig into a list of names that are good buy lows, and also a list of names that are good targets to sell off on the hight (maybe to get some of these buy lows). Here we go.

Buy Lows

Devonta Freeman (RB/ATL) – He comes with a boatload of risk and upside at this point. If you need a spark and are willing to take the risk that he shares carries all year, roll the dice!

Allen Robinson (WR/JAC) – The dude is elite and just waiting to drop a big game. Buy low while his owners worry he had a fluke of a season last year. He is easily a top 12 overall pick if drafting today.

Blake Bortles (QB/JAC) – Like ARob above, and their success is linked, I think breakout is near. Trade for both ARob and Bortles before they drop huge games this week or next week.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK) – After a big week one, he had a disappointing Week 2, and for some reason that one single bad week already has many wondering if he has WR1-type ability. Really? This is a top 4-6 fantasy WR if you ask me, and I buy low any chance I get, even if this isn’t a huge, huge buy low (and more of a slight down tick in value).

Sell High

Philip Rivers (QB/SD) – I’ve seen two owners land Aaron Rodgers using Rivers already. After two weeks! See if you can get this kind of value for the passer (Rivers), who has lost both of his top two receiving options.

Cam Newton (QB/CAR) – I can’t stress this enough, but ONLY trade Newt if you are selling through the rough, and I’m talking an arm and a leg. And, only do this if you own Newt but have to make a move to stay in the mix. Meaning, your team is underperforming outside of Newt, or you were hit hard with injuries. This is the time to not consider him a bust, no, that’s not what selling high always means… it just means, in this case, you need to get two pieces for one, and the kind of deal I’d look to do is a Bortles/Landry or Bortles/McCoy… something like that is possible using Newt, and something like that could revive a season.

DeAngelo Williams (RB/CAR) – I almost say let it ride if you own DWill and cannot get awesome value. Keep in mind that Bell may struggle a bit coming back, maybe he even gets hurt trying to do too much too fast. It happens all the time. However, if you can sell high, and I mean for a strong starting piece for your lineup, consider the trade. Or, get crafty and at least trade for a stash in waiting, like Derrick Henry (as one example).

Matthew Stafford (QB/DET) – I don’t see Stafford continue to play at the level he is playing at, and I think he can be sold high to improve a team moving forward.

Matt Forte (RB/NYJ) – This is again one of those situations like Cam Newton above, don’t sell low or even at even value. Sell high or not at all. Forte is playing awesome, and he may continue that awesome play. But, if your team is in need, and only if it’s in need, consider selling high for two players. Just make sure it’s an awesome deal or hold tight!

Video: Fantasy Draft Prep Show

Below is our 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep Video Show, a video show created from Starters’ recent Red Zone 1060am NBC Sports Radio fantasy football show.

Demaryius Thomas to decline in 2016?

If you own Demaryius Thomas in dynasty, it might be time to trade him. If you play in redraft, unless the price is right, it might be time to start avoiding him. DT use to be a second-round fantasy talent, and while it’s always possible he still cranks out that kind of production in 2016, he has a miserable QB situation in 2016 (Mark Sanchez, or overwhelmed rookie Paxton Lynch), he is 28 years old (turning 29 in December) and the team might plan to run more than ever in 2016. In dynasty, I wouldn’t suggest that anyone sell so low you are trading him in for a 6th- or 7th-round WR talent, but you might be able to get crafty and do a straight one-for-one swap for an underrated TY Hilton. Hilton is 26 and has a top 1-3 passer throwing him the football… this is the kind of ‘downgrade’ that seems feasible trade-wise, given the trade market values of both players, and it’s a great way to rebuild and plan for the future. And, in redraft, the two, Thomas and Hilton, have just about the exact ADP, so consider drafting a Hilton-type before you draft DT.

Note: The Draft Analyzer agrees with this doubting of DT, as it has the WR roughly ranked around 18-21 heading into 2016.

Other names to consider over Demaryius Thomas, regardless of position:

  • Jarvis Landry MIA
  • Jeremy Langford CHI RB
  • Andrew Luck IND QB
  • Aaron Rodgers GB QB

Bust WRs for 2016?

Below are a few potential 2016 Fantasy Football Busts at WR.

Brandon Marshall NYJ WR

He’s 32 and has played 10 seasons. Sure, he could go through 33 as elite, it happens, but 32-33 is often the age of decline for WRs, so it’s tough to pay a 3rd-round price, which is his going ADP, in 2016 given the chance he declines at some point this year.

Kelvin Benjamin CAR WR

I like his future value, but without much proven on the field, it’s hard to justify his current 3rd-round ADP. If his value drops a round or more, we might like his value this year, but he seems risky as a third player on one’s team.

Julian Edelman NE WR

With Tom Brady serving a multi-game suspension, and with Edelman coming off foot surgery, there is reason to be concerned about drafting Edleman as high as his ADP is coming in at. His ADP is in the 3.10-4.02 area, and that’s way too high for a 30 year old wide receiver coming off injury and missing his QB for multiple games.

Bust RBs for 2016?

Below are a few potential 2016 Fantasy Football Busts at RB.

Eddie Lacy RB GB

With a middle second-round ADP, it’s time to pump the brakes on the Eddie Lacy comeback bus. He has nice appeal as a 4th-drafted player, and that’s where his ADP was prior to the news breaking about him being in great shape early on during the off-season. Well, that news triggered a huge climb in ADP value, and he now has more risk than appeal. Beware of drafting Lacy as your second player, dynasty or redraft.

Latavius Murray RB OAK

How does Latavius Murray still have 3rd-round ADP value heading into late June mocks? We admit, we liked him last year, there was a lot to like, but he kind of failed fantasy owners last year, and it’s sounding like rookie DeAndre Washington could get a chance if things go bad for Murray early on in 2016. And, even if Murray plays decent, it could be a RBBC all year. Don’t overlook Murray should his value tumble, he is quite gifted between the tackles, but third-round picks should be spent elsewhere in 2016.

Ryan Matthews RB PHI

With Wendell Smallwood in Philly, I think the oft-injured Ryan Matthews is a sell-high in existing leagues, and he’s a player to potentially avoid should you be looking at needing to take him at his 5th-round ADP. Take Smallwood only later on and have the real weapon at scrub pricing.

Jonathan Stewart RB CAR

This guy never stayed healthy when young and fresh, it’s hard to imagine him being worth his current 5th-round ADP. Pass on JStew at this cost in upcoming drafts. If his ADP falls, then we might start liking his value, but not in the 5th.

Wide Receivers to Doubt in 2016?

Below you will find a few big name wide receivers we caution against drafting in 2016, unless the price is right. Everything comes down to value.

Brandon Marshall | WR Jets

He is coming off a phenomenal season in 2015, posting 109 receptions for 1502 yards and 14TDs. But, he is also entering his 11th NFL season. I’ve seen him drafted as high as 9-11 for WRs, and seen him go at 15-17 for WRs. I like him in that 15-20 range, no question, but as a top 10WR, I worry about him breaking down in 2016. So, draft accordingly and let others reach based on last year’s numbers.

Alshon Jeffery | WR Bears

He always seems banged up, and his ADP is too high for our liking top 8-10WR range. If he can be drafted as a WR2, by all means, draft the guy with a smile. But, he is a risky fantasy WR1, he just is.

Kelvin Benjamin | WR Panthers

The receiver is fully expected to be ready for 2016, as he recovers from last year’s ACL tear. While he had a big 2014, pulling in 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and 9TDs, he feels a bit overrated heading into 2016 fantasy football drafts and mocks. He is sometimes ranked inside the top 15-20 receivers, and while he could post such numbers in 2016, there are a number of safer options at that higher end of 15-20 (like Jarvis Landry for example). Don’t consider Benjamin a bust candidate, we aren’t predicting bust, but don’t draft too high, and consider selling high in leagues where you already own him, as his trade value seems awesome!

Running Backs to Doubt in 2016?

Below you will find a few big name running backs we caution against drafting in 2016, unless the price is right. Everything comes down to value.

Mark Ingram | RB Saints

It’s not that we doubt the guy’s talent, as he can play like a top 10RB when fed the ball. However, his ADP is in the top 10RB range, and that’s a bit high given his injury history and the potential he doesn’t get the carries he deserves. Don’t trade him away on the cheap if you own him in dynasty, but make sure you rank him in the low, low end of the RB2s heading into 2016, this way he won’t disappoint. We’ve seen some value him as a low end RB1 and that’s risky.

CJ Anderson | RB Broncos

Not only is his lack of experience a red flag, so is his inability to stay on the field. And, with Devontae Booker, the new rookie in Denver, now on the Denver roster, Anderson ‘could’ disappoint in 2016. Again, like with Ingram above, don’t sell cheap if you already own him in dynasty, but don’t draft him in upcoming drafts expecting elite RB1 numbers. His ADP is super high and we just don’t like the value even if he is relatively talented. If you plan to roll with CJ this year, just be sure to cuff him to Booker!

Thomas Rawls | RB Seahawks

He is still equal parts sleeper and risk, so know that the potential is there. This is great for those that bought low months and months ago in dynasty. Keep him, or trade him high… but don’t sell dirt cheap. All that said, don’t go drafting him at high-end RB2 value at this point, as the Seahawks drafted two rookies that have big skill sets, one being CJ Prosise. Cuff him to Rawls if you roll with Rawls this year! If drafting today, though, I think I avoid Rawls at his current asking price. I bought low in a lot of leagues, and I’m happy about that, but values change and some players turn into risks at the going rates. This is that situation.

ARTICLE: Three (3) Players To Avoid In Fantasy Football In 2015?

smitty staff

Here are three (3) players to avoid heading into 2015 fantasy football drafts. These players aren’t locks to be busts, however, their ADPs vs. risk spells potential letdown.

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ARTICLE: Week 5 Fantasy Football Roundtable

smitty staff

Hey, everyone. Our friends over at FantasyPros again invited us to participate in an Expert Roundtable, this time for Week 5. Below are the five questions asked to every expert on the panel, and below each question is my answer to each question. Enjoy, and good luck in Week 5, everyone!

Q1: Name one “sleeper start” for Week 5 and give us an example of a player or two you like this guy better than as a starter.

“Jeremy Hill (at NE): The Bengals are feeding Gio Bernard monster touches, and Gio was/remains one of our biggest breakouts on the year, but that Bengals offense has room for Hill. He could be a 40-60 yard rusher with a score every week (with upside for much more). He is a fantastic start, especially this Sunday night against a struggling New England team. The Bengals might be running a lot in the 4th.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q2: Who should fantasy owners be most concerned about as a potential bust this week?

“Alfred Morris (vs SEA): This is a tough matchup and Washington looks rattled. Even though the Seahawks are on the road, this is a Monday night contest, and I think Seattle shines early and often. This not only takes out the Redskins’ rushing game in the second half, it’s just a flat out horrible rushing matchup for Morris. Plus, Roy Helu is ultra-talented and he could steal touches in this one, especially on 3rd downs.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q3: Which surprise stud from last week is most likely to treat fantasy owners to another strong outing? Eli Manning (vs. ATL), Larry Donnell (vs. ATL), Justin Forsett (at IND), Travis Kelce (at SF), Terrance Williams (vs. HOU), Eddie Royal (vs. NYJ)

“Larry Donnell: Donnell feels like the real deal, and he should have success against Atlanta this week. That said, I still love Travis Kelce despite the tough SF matchup, and Justin Forsett has sneaky upside just as long as you’re not sitting a bigger name, as that Ravens’ rushing attack is very cloudy.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q4: If you’re in a bind and need a desperation flex (i.e FLEX ECR worse than 115), who would you roll the dice with as a high upside option?

“Andre Williams (RB, vs ATL): With an ECR of 125, I think Williams is very underrated this week against a Falcons rushing defense, which ranks in the bottom 5 in the league against the run.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q5: LeSean McCoy owners are undoubtedly concerned about his early production. Give us your prediction for Shady’s stat line (rushing yards, receptions, TDs) vs. the Rams.

“Buy-low on LeSean McCoy, as any risk of him not truly bouncing back will be built into that buy-low value. I see him posting a line like this in Week 5: 60-70 rushing, 3-4 receptions for 40-50 yards and 1 TD.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

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