According to buffalobills.com, Bills RB CJ Spiller is likely to see 20 touches per game in 2014.
SMITTY: Twenty touches per game would be perfect for CJ Spiller owners — any more and he’d have a tough time staying healthy. Last season, Spiller averaged just 15.6 touches per-game, which only produced 927 rushing yards, 33 receptions for 185 yards and 2 total scores. The truth is, though, 15.6 touches per-game wasn’t the problem, it was the fact that he played hurt for part of last season, and his yards-per-carry and yards-per-catch were way down. Spiller’s YPC dropped from 6.0 in 2012 to 4.6 in 2013. And, his YPC went from 10.7 to 5.6; he also scored six less touchdowns. What matters is ‘quality’ touches (and health). With an ADP in the 3.05-3.08 range, there is more upside than risk when it comes to drafting Spiller in 2014, as he can earn 3.05-3.08 type value just by staying healthy. He is a strong bounce-back candidate heading into all drafts, just be sure to handcuff him to whomever wins the backup job between Bryce Brown or Fred Jackson. For full-season projections on Spiller, based on your exact league scoring, run our Draft Analyzer!
According to ESPN’s Mike Rodak, the Bills “would like [Bryce] Brown to develop into one of their lead backs.”
SMITTY: The thinking here by this writer is that CJ Spiller is going to be a free agent next season, and given that he has some injury concerns, and given the fact that there are questions about him being an every-down back, Buffalo may turn to Bryce Brown as their future RB1. Fred Jackson will be 34 this time next year, so he has almost no chance of being much of anything 1-2 years from now, if his decline doesn’t occur this very season. The future for that Bills rushing attack is either: A) Spiller, should he prove to be a RB1 in 2014, B) Brown, who the team acquired with a 4th-round pick, which could turn into a 3rd-round pick, or C) a future rookie yet to be selected. While I wouldn’t be so quick to anoint Brown the future BUF starting rusher, it’s important to keep it in mind a year early, as the dude has tremendous skill. He has a big-time fumbling problem, which he will have to overcome to ever hold onto a starting job, but if given the right opportunity, and fundamental training, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him leading that Buffalo backfield in 2015. Dynasty leaguers may want to see how easily he can be had via trade, but absolutely don’t overpay, this is one of those buy cheaply and stash, or don’t buy at all type situations. He feels like a must-own for all Spiller dynasty owners, though. Looking for 2014 fantasy football projections for CJ Spiller? Run this tool:
According to buffalobills.com’s Chris Brown, the rookie season AJ Green produced back in 2011 could be comparable to the rookie season Sammy Watkins is about to produce. Brown writes that the 65 receptions, 1,057 receiving yards, and 7TDs that Green pulled in as a rookie are not unrealistic numbers for Watkins this upcoming year.
SMITTY: Not many rookie receivers pull in 1,000 yards, let alone 7TDs, but it’s crazier to rule out such a stat line for Sammy Watkins this season than it is to rule it in. For our exact 2014 projections for Watkins (based on your scoring), run our Draft Analyzer. As for other Bills players, an elusive Watkins running all over the field is sure going to create nice rushing lanes for CJ Spiller, who could very well bounce-back in 2014.
According to buffalobills.com, the Bills are considering using CJ Spiller on special teams in 2014.
SMITTY: There are two ways to look at this. First, if the team does use CJ Spiller on returns, that could indicate that he may not be guaranteed as many starter-type carries on offense (meaning Bryce Brown and Fred Jackson could be more involved in the rushing game than most had predicted). Or, this could mean that Buffalo’s coaching staff just wants to get their most powerful weapon on the field more. Either way, returning kicks puts Spiller in a position to get hurt, so I’m not a fan of the idea. Nothing appears to be locked in, this report merely points out that Spiller is in the competition for the return job. If not returning kicks, which still could be the outcome here, Spiller could be in for a bounce-back year… Sammy Watkins also has a shot at the gig. Watkins should be in for a big rookie campaign, and could pull in 1,000 yards and 6 or so scores as a rookie (which is rare, but he is a rare talent).
According to buffalobills.com, Bills WR Sammy Watkins’ acceleration after the catch is “very rare.” The site also suggests that Bills’ offensive coaches “seem eager to expand the ways in which he’ll [Spiller] be used on the field this fall.”
SMITTY: Spiller has huge upside, there is no doubt about it, but depending on his ADP, he also comes with some risk. We saw him go in the late 2nd-round in very early mocks this off-season, but recently, Spiller’s ADP is trending down around 3.07-3.10… that’s not bad value, and it eliminates a lot of the risk. So, draft accordingly! As for Watkins, it seems like everyone is on board when it comes to this kid’s upside, and across all leagues and formats, too… so, I doubt Watkins is going to be undervalued in any fantasy formats, and that goes for both redraft and dynasty. It wouldn’t be all that shocking to see Watkins have a Keenan Allen-type rookie season. For exact projections for both players (based on your league’s exact scoring format), go here: