Archive for breakouts

Week 10 Buy Low Sell High

Below we have our Week 10 Buy-Low/Sell-High. Take a listen to Smitty and Russ talk specifically about: Ben Roethlisberger, Devonta Freeman, Todd Gurley, Spencer Ware Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, Brandin Cooks

Listen Now! (Buy-Low/Sell-High)

Week 3 Buy Lows/Sell Highs

smitty staff

Ok, so we are already heading into Week 3 and many teams/owners have been hit hard by injuries. Maybe you lost Adrian Peterson? Maybe Doug Martin? How about Corey Coleman? Ok, well, let’s dig into a list of names that are good buy lows, and also a list of names that are good targets to sell off on the hight (maybe to get some of these buy lows). Here we go.

Buy Lows

Devonta Freeman (RB/ATL) – He comes with a boatload of risk and upside at this point. If you need a spark and are willing to take the risk that he shares carries all year, roll the dice!

Allen Robinson (WR/JAC) – The dude is elite and just waiting to drop a big game. Buy low while his owners worry he had a fluke of a season last year. He is easily a top 12 overall pick if drafting today.

Blake Bortles (QB/JAC) – Like ARob above, and their success is linked, I think breakout is near. Trade for both ARob and Bortles before they drop huge games this week or next week.

Amari Cooper (WR/OAK) – After a big week one, he had a disappointing Week 2, and for some reason that one single bad week already has many wondering if he has WR1-type ability. Really? This is a top 4-6 fantasy WR if you ask me, and I buy low any chance I get, even if this isn’t a huge, huge buy low (and more of a slight down tick in value).

Sell High

Philip Rivers (QB/SD) – I’ve seen two owners land Aaron Rodgers using Rivers already. After two weeks! See if you can get this kind of value for the passer (Rivers), who has lost both of his top two receiving options.

Cam Newton (QB/CAR) – I can’t stress this enough, but ONLY trade Newt if you are selling through the rough, and I’m talking an arm and a leg. And, only do this if you own Newt but have to make a move to stay in the mix. Meaning, your team is underperforming outside of Newt, or you were hit hard with injuries. This is the time to not consider him a bust, no, that’s not what selling high always means… it just means, in this case, you need to get two pieces for one, and the kind of deal I’d look to do is a Bortles/Landry or Bortles/McCoy… something like that is possible using Newt, and something like that could revive a season.

DeAngelo Williams (RB/CAR) – I almost say let it ride if you own DWill and cannot get awesome value. Keep in mind that Bell may struggle a bit coming back, maybe he even gets hurt trying to do too much too fast. It happens all the time. However, if you can sell high, and I mean for a strong starting piece for your lineup, consider the trade. Or, get crafty and at least trade for a stash in waiting, like Derrick Henry (as one example).

Matthew Stafford (QB/DET) – I don’t see Stafford continue to play at the level he is playing at, and I think he can be sold high to improve a team moving forward.

Matt Forte (RB/NYJ) – This is again one of those situations like Cam Newton above, don’t sell low or even at even value. Sell high or not at all. Forte is playing awesome, and he may continue that awesome play. But, if your team is in need, and only if it’s in need, consider selling high for two players. Just make sure it’s an awesome deal or hold tight!

Video: Fantasy Draft Prep Show

Below is our 2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep Video Show, a video show created from Starters’ recent Red Zone 1060am NBC Sports Radio fantasy football show.

RB Analysis (32-Team Breakdown)

smitty staff

Below you will find my take on the 32 running back situations heading into the 2016 fantasy football season!

AFC

BUF: LeSean McCoy RB – The clear starter and potential a top 5-10RB in 2016. Just be sure to handcuff him to Mike Gillislee.

MIA: Arian Foster RB – He should have a nice season per start, but will he start many games, or will he get hurt fast? He should be handcuffed to Jay Ajayi

NE: LeGarrette Blount RB – The early favorite for starter carries with Dion Lewis likely to miss at least 8 weeks. James White and Tyler Gaffney command consideration, as this is NE, anyone could be starting by Week 5.

NYJ: Matt Forte RB – He is 30, and Bilal Powell is kind of a threat, but Forte has a good situation and could be one of this year’s “I shouldn’t have written him off yet as a RB1” type calls.

BAL: RB – While the early favorite to start, Buck Allen, Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon (injured, could miss several weeks) make this a cloudy situation, and one to avoid unless the value is right/low-risk.

CIN: Jeremy Hill RB – This is one undervalued RB that could play like a low-end RB1 this year. Gio Bernard is a solid flex grab all on his own, but a must-own for all Hill owners. Gio would thrive if forced to start, keep that in mind.

CLE: Isaiah Crowell RB – Looking like the clear starter, Crowell has one of the most talented backups in the league right behind him in Duke Johnson (who caught 60 balls for 500+ yards last year in a non-starting role. Imagine him starting and getting the rushes! Duke is the long-term bet come mid-season.

PIT: LeVeon Bell RB – He will miss three games, but he is still a top 7-10 overall pick in redraft. DeAngelo Williams is a must-own and will play like a low-end RB1 in Weeks 1-3.

HOU: Lamar Miller RB – Get ready for a top 5-10RB season!

IND: Frank Gore RB – He is old and injury is always a worry, but rookie Josh Ferguson is not impressing (yet), and Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman are the only other RBs that could steal carries. Todman is talented, but I’m not so sure the team would turn to him (at least right away) if Gore got hurt.

JAC: T.J. Yeldon RB – He’s the back to own if forced to pick between he and co-starter Chris Ivory, however, with Ivory looking like the goal line guy, this is a RBBC to avoid until one becomes the clear starter, which might only happen with injury.

TEN: DeMarco Murray RB – Derrick Henry looks good, and he would thrive starting, but Murray is the main guy and will have a great season if he stays healthy. He’s a sneaky-good RB2 this year, as somehow people are valuing him at lower value than that!

DEN: CJ Anderson RB – The clear starter, but both Devontae Booker and Ronnie Hillman could steal more touches than people think by 3-4 weeks into the season. Booker has the home upside of all the DEN rushers.

KC: Jamaal Charles RB – A top 5-10RB this year according to must, but he MUST be handcuffed to both Spencer Ware/C-West, and owning just the duo backups is often a great strategy to use!

OAK: Latavius Murray RB – The clear starter, but as the season moves along, DeAndre Washington could start making it tough for the Raiders to give Murray all the carries. Murray has the talent, but he needs to step up.

SD: Melvin Gordon RB – Breakout season coming!

NFC

DAL: Ezekiel Elliott RB – He could hit a rookie wall near Weeks 10-11, and that would be a great time to laterally trade in redraft… keep that in mind. But, he has a great situation, and he can be a top 4-8RB in 2016 when all is said and done!

NYG: Rashad Jennings RB – The clear starter, but Shane Vereen will pull in a lot of passes and will cut into the receptions that could be going to Jennings.

PHI: Ryan Mathews RB – He is the clear starter as of now, but staying healthy could be tough for the RB. Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood would fight for carries if Mathews went down.

WAS: Matt Jones RB – Banged up now, he could return in Week 1 or soon after. Rob Kelley is a must-own and will likely start Week 1 if Jones isn’t ready for Week 1.

CHI: Jeremy Langford RB – A big time breakout candidate.

DET: Ameer Abdullah RB – He should breakout this year, but if he drops the ball early and often, look for Theo Riddick to be the guy to own. Interesting fact: Riddick pulled in 80 receptions last year.

GB: Eddie Lacy RB – Lots of bust potential here. James Starks is a must-own.

MIN: Adrian Peterson RB – He should have one more elite season left.

ATL: Devonta Freeman RB – So underrated it’s crazy! He was the top RB last year, and his so called ‘drop off’ was not something that should scare off anyone, as his ‘drop off’ was still an elite RB numbers wise. Tevin Coleman is a must-own.

CAR: Jonathan Stewart RB – Hard to trust the guy, but he is younger than Matt Forte if you can believe that. Cameron Artis-Payne is a must-own.

NO: Mark Ingram RB – A top 10RB if healthy.

TB: Doug Martin RB – Kind of an underrated top 7-10RB this year. Charles Sims is a must-own.

AZ: David Johnson RB – His coaches call him the best receiving back they’ve ever seen — A top 1-3RB season in the cards! Chris Johnson is a must-own.

STL: Todd Gurley RB – Double-digit TDs and 1,400 rushing yards is in the cards in 2016. He might turn out to be a much better WR than people are projecting, keep that in mind, too.

SF: Carlos Hyde RB – A breakout season on the way, he just needs to stay healthy!

SEA: Thomas Rawls RB – The starter, if healthy, but watch out for Christine Michael, who has nothing to lose. He also has tremendous talent. Michael could be a huge force if given starter carries!

Two Upside Board Predictions Just Added

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have already added the first two players to the list for the 2016 fantasy football season. Check them out now!
View Upside Board

Bounce-Back Players for 2016

Below are a list of just a few bounce-back fantasy football candidates heading into the 2016 NFL fantasy football season. Have a few names you want to toss out? Comment below!

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has reportedly lost 15-18 pounds since the end of last year. Some are even suggesting that he will enter 2016 in the best shape of his life. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him, but if he can be had at RB2 value entering 2016, and currently that’s the case, he has bounce-back written all over him.

Jordy Nelson

Another Packer with bounce-back written all over him. Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit last year, as did the Packers, and one reason is that Rodgers lost Jordy. Jordy is always underrated, but coming off injury, he is more likely to get overlooked than ever. Buy-low, at least until his ADP climbs back into stud range, and it may. Once it does, then he is a tad risky and the appeal is somewhat lost.

Andrew Luck

Most expect a bounce-back, but given that he and Aaron Rodgers both struggled last year, and now with Brady again looking at a 4-game suspension, QBs might fall further than they should in 2016. Take advantage, as Luck (and Rodgers) both have top 10 overall value, it’s just that QBs are waited on in almost every veteran fantasy football draft. At 3rd- and 4th-round value, we say don’t wait, be the one to snag either QB.

Jamaal Charles

He should bounce-back from injury nicely, for at least one season. Don’t spend a top 5RB pick on him, but if you can get him near 2nd-round value, or particularly at 2nd-round value, strike!

DeMarco Murray

Risky, sure, especially with a new team (TEN); however, he is still top 5-10RB skilled, and TEN wanted him, which is a change from his situation in PHI last year. His ADP is in the 3rd/4th, so the risk is very low, whereas the reward is 1st-round possible.

Two Must-Have Buy-Lows (heading into Week 2)

smitty staff

AJ Green: Grab this elite stud, who is still No. 1 overall…

Read Both Write-ups!

No. 7 on the Upside Board is…

smitty staff

Hey everyone! I hope you are all enjoying the new Fantasy Football Starters redesign… we redesigned the entire site, making it mobile-friendly and much, much sleeker. To kickoff the new look, I thought I’d drop No. 7 on the Upside Board, so here you go!

No. 7 on the Upside Board

ARTICLE: Week 5 Fantasy Football Roundtable

smitty staff

Hey, everyone. Our friends over at FantasyPros again invited us to participate in an Expert Roundtable, this time for Week 5. Below are the five questions asked to every expert on the panel, and below each question is my answer to each question. Enjoy, and good luck in Week 5, everyone!

Q1: Name one “sleeper start” for Week 5 and give us an example of a player or two you like this guy better than as a starter.

“Jeremy Hill (at NE): The Bengals are feeding Gio Bernard monster touches, and Gio was/remains one of our biggest breakouts on the year, but that Bengals offense has room for Hill. He could be a 40-60 yard rusher with a score every week (with upside for much more). He is a fantastic start, especially this Sunday night against a struggling New England team. The Bengals might be running a lot in the 4th.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q2: Who should fantasy owners be most concerned about as a potential bust this week?

“Alfred Morris (vs SEA): This is a tough matchup and Washington looks rattled. Even though the Seahawks are on the road, this is a Monday night contest, and I think Seattle shines early and often. This not only takes out the Redskins’ rushing game in the second half, it’s just a flat out horrible rushing matchup for Morris. Plus, Roy Helu is ultra-talented and he could steal touches in this one, especially on 3rd downs.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q3: Which surprise stud from last week is most likely to treat fantasy owners to another strong outing? Eli Manning (vs. ATL), Larry Donnell (vs. ATL), Justin Forsett (at IND), Travis Kelce (at SF), Terrance Williams (vs. HOU), Eddie Royal (vs. NYJ)

“Larry Donnell: Donnell feels like the real deal, and he should have success against Atlanta this week. That said, I still love Travis Kelce despite the tough SF matchup, and Justin Forsett has sneaky upside just as long as you’re not sitting a bigger name, as that Ravens’ rushing attack is very cloudy.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q4: If you’re in a bind and need a desperation flex (i.e FLEX ECR worse than 115), who would you roll the dice with as a high upside option?

“Andre Williams (RB, vs ATL): With an ECR of 125, I think Williams is very underrated this week against a Falcons rushing defense, which ranks in the bottom 5 in the league against the run.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Q5: LeSean McCoy owners are undoubtedly concerned about his early production. Give us your prediction for Shady’s stat line (rushing yards, receptions, TDs) vs. the Rams.

“Buy-low on LeSean McCoy, as any risk of him not truly bouncing back will be built into that buy-low value. I see him posting a line like this in Week 5: 60-70 rushing, 3-4 receptions for 40-50 yards and 1 TD.”
– Smitty (Fantasy Football Starters)

Read Entire Article