Archive for Arian Foster

SUNDAY NEWS: Live Feed All Day Long (Week 3)

This Week 3 Sunday News topic will be updated all Sunday long!!!

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News: 9/21 (03:20pm) Andre Ellington (foot) is active for Week 3 against the 49ers; Vernon Davis (ankle, knee) is inactive for Week 3 against AZ. Carson Palmer is also inactive.
Take: Andre Ellington should see a grip of work in this one, and despite his foot, he remains one of our bigger breakouts this year. He has been doing outstanding fantasy-wise considering the foot and his loss of Carson Palmer. Derek Carrier will get extra run at TE this week for the 49ers.


News: 9/21 (03:17pm) Jamaal Charles is inactive for Week 3 against MIA.
Take: This was fully expected, but we wanted to give you official word. Knile Davis has fantasy RB1-upside this week.


News: 9/21 (03:17pm) Danny Woodhead was carted off the field with a severe ankle injury.
Take: Horrible news, as he was truly setup to shine in PPR formats while Ryan Mathews was out. We will keep you updated on his injury and how long he might be out.


News: 9/21 (12:55pm) According to rotoworld, the Texans have announced that Alfred Blue will be their starting runner against the Giants today (Week 3).
Take: As I/we said this morning, I really like this kid and he is a sneaky, but risky, Week 3 play. I am playing him in one league despite the risk. His upside is big. Alfred Blue and Jeremy Hill are the sneaky RB starts of the week.


News: 9/21 (12:41pm) DeSean Jackson is on the field and warming up to play.
Take: Jackson looks like a go in this one. Of course, anything can happen during warm-ups, but you're signed up for Smart Alerts, so you're covered! We will send an alert back out should something change. Kirk Cousins is a sneaky start this week if you need a QB. Pierre Garcon owners were probably hoping Jackson wouldn't go, but I don't think DJax is fully healthy, so Garcon could see more targets than usual. Start Niles Paul if you got him, as Jordan Reed is out!


News: 9/21 (12:39pm) FOX’s Jay Glazer has confirmed that Jamaal Charles (ankle) is not expected to play in Sunday’s Week 3 contest against MIA.
Take: Knile Davis has low-end RB1 appeal in this one. Be sure to check back just in case anything changes with Charles’ status, but Week 3 should be all Knile Davis.


News: 9/21 (12:33pm) Shaun Hill (thigh) is active for Week 3 against DAL.
Take: Austin Davis was expected to start, but it appears Hill is working out with the starters. Neither QB should be starting in fantasy leagues unless the league is a large 2QB league.


News: 9/21 (12:13pm) Bengals OC Hue Jackson “doesn’t have a number” in mind in terms of how many carries he’ll split up between Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard.
Take: You guys all know by now how much I love Giovani Bernard, as I believe he is a top 5-10 fantasy rusher this year. Even with that stance, I love Jeremy Hill, and that offense has room for both runners. Today might be the game Jeremy Hill explodes, and again, I can’t stress enough I still believe fully in Gio. Hill is going to be used early and often between the tackles, and he will have 8-10TD potential this season. He is averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry and is coming off a 15-carry game in Week 2. Don’t bench a stud or big name for the guy, but Hill is a fantastic flex-start this week (and moving forward).


News: 9/21 (12:13pm) According to rotoworld, Danny Woodhead is listed as the starting running back for the Chargers this week.
Take: We’ve been saying it all week, Danny Woodhead is the best RB in SD right now, especially in PPR. Donald Brown is expected to get early-down work, but Woodhead has more appeal fantasy-wise.


News: 9/21 (12:05pm) Keenan Allen (groin) is active for the Chargers’ Week 3 contest against BUF; Ryan Mathews is inactive.
Take: This is the best buy-low WR in fantasy right now. Why? Yeah, yeah, he hasn’t done much in Weeks 1 and 2, right? Well, he faced AZ in Week 1 and Richard Sherman and SEA in Week 2. Well, let me tell you, if you watched Allen against Sherman, you’d be quite impressed. Allen has amazing footwork, speed and route running ability. He is a fantasy WR1 talent-wise – We hope the Keenan Allen show starts in Week 3!


News: 9/21 (12:01pm) Dez Bryant (shoulder) is active for Week 3 against STL.
Take: This was expected, but it’s great to get confirmation that Dez is ready to explode in Week 3.


News: 9/21 (12:01pm) Tavon Austin (knee) is inactive for Week 3 against DAL.
Take: He isn’t a viable starter right now anyway.


News: 9/21 (12:01pm) Aaron Dobson is inactive for Week 3 against OAK.
Take: He isn’t a viable starter right now in fantasy anyway.


News: 9/21 (11:56am) Bernard Pierce (thigh) is inactive for Sunday’s Week 3 contest at CLE.
Take: Justin Forsett and and the rookie we have been talking up for weeks, Lorenzo Taliaferro, would likely split carries in this one with Pierce officially out. Taliaferro is a must-add in dynasty, and he remains a sneaky pick-up in larger redraft leagues — just know anything can happen carry-wise in this game, so be careful plugging either into your line up. Lorenzo Taliaferro has big upside if he plays a ton, though, but his workload is far from guaranteed — this week at least.


News: 9/21 (11:55am) A.J. Green (toe) is active for Week 3.
Take: This was expected, but it’s great to get further confirmation. Green is a top 1-4WR any week that he is on the field.


News: 9/21 (11:33am) NFL Network is reporting that Arian Foster (hamstring) is officially inactive for Sunday’s Week 3 contest against NYG.
Take: Alfred Blue and Ronnie Brown will most likely split some work, but if you need a sneaky play this week at RB, Alfred Blue is your guy! There is always risk with these starts, so know that, as Brown could get more reps than anyone can predict, but I love this kid Blue! Jonathan Grimes could see some run, hence the risk in starting anyone last-minute. I like Blue here.


News: 9/21 (11:23am) ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Shane Vereen (shoulder) is expected to play Sunday’s Week 3 contest against OAK.
Take: Check back last-minute, just in case he suffers a setback in warm-ups. Sign-Up For Smart Alerts to ensure you get real-time alerts on all this!


News: 9/21 (11:23am) Both Brandon Marshall (ankle) and Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) are expected to play in Monday night’s Week 3 contest against the Jets.
Take: This is solid info to have now, as some were considering using some Sunday options vs. those Monday night plays. Anything can happen in warm-ups, but both WRs appear ready to rumble on Monday night.


News: 9/21 (10:43am) Vernon Davis (ankle, knee) remains “doubtful” for Week 3.
Take: Unless a miracle occurs in this situation, Derek Carrier is going to get some extra run in Week 3.


News: 9/21 (10:18am) DeSean Jackson is expected to be available for Week 3.
Take: Expect him to play, but check back, as setbacks happen in warm-ups all the time.


News: 9/21 (10:18am) Wes Welker is expected to be a third-down/role player in Week 3 against SEA.
Take: He should return to his strong fantasy WR3 role at some point, but given the match-up and expected playing time, he might not be ready for that just yet.


News: 9/21 (10:16am) There is some buzz this morning suggesting that Bernard Pierce (thigh) may not play Week 3 against CLE.
Take: Justin Forsett and and the rookie we have been talking up for weeks, Lorenzo Taliaferro, would likely split carries in this one if Pierce cannot go. Taliaferro is a must-add in dynasty, and he remains a sneaky pick-up in larger redraft leagues — just know anything can happen carry-wise if Pierce sits, so be careful plugging either into your line up. Lorenzo Taliaferro has big upside if he plays a ton, but his workload is far from guaranteed — this week at least.


News: 9/21 (10:16am) NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Arian Foster (hamstring) is a “long shot” to play Sunday’s Week 3 contest against NYG.
Take: Alfred Blue and Ronnie Brown will most likely split work; Blue is a decent pickup if you’re in need, but just know he is boom or bust given that Brown could get more work than expected, or less work than expected. Blue is a great dynasty add, though, know that!


News: 9/21 (10:16am) Maurice Jones-Drew (hand) is not expected to be available for Week 3 game against NE.
Take: Darren McFadden should see more work than normal. Let’s see if McFadden can hold-up.


News: 9/21 (10:05am) ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Jordan Cameron (shoulder) is expected to play against BAL.
Take: Great news, for now. Of course, check back with us closer to kickoff, as anything can happen in warm-ups.


News: 9/21 (10:04am) NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport is reporting that Jamaal Charles (ankle) is not expected to play Sunday against MIA.
Take: Check back of course, but for now, Knile Davis is expected to start. We will adjust the Analyzers/Rankings to reflect the change, but keep in mind that an earlier report, this morning, suggested that Charles had a good chance to play. Stay tuned, but expect Charles to sit as of now.


News: 9/21 (02:02am) Bernard Pierce (thigh) is listed as questionable for Week 3 at Cleveland.
Take: The Ravens signed RB Fitzgerald Toussaint, so you have to wonder if Pierce is more questionable than the Ravens are letting on. Pierce practiced on Friday, so expected him to go in Week 3 unless we send out another Smart Alerts on the guy. Just to ensure we’re saying it ahead of time, Ravens rookie RB Lorenzo Taliaferro could eventually see the field, and if he does, watch out. He is a great dynasty “go get” right now.


News: 9/21 (02:02am) Chris Johnson (ankle) is probable for Monday night’s Week 3 contest vs. the Bears.
Take: As sad as it is to say, CJ2K is merely a flex option at this point.


News: 9/21 (02:02am) Antonio Gates (hamstring) is probable for Week 3.
Take: Great news – After last week, be proved he still has some TE1 left in the tank.


News: 9/21 (02:02am) Chargers RB Branden Oliver will be active for Week 3 against the Bills.
Take: This is a dynasty sleeper right here. Be sure to consider grabbing this guy in those deep dynasty leagues. He could never see the field other than special teams, sure, but his talent level is big-time, so I hope he gets a shot. He will be the No. 3RB with Ryan Mathews out.


News: 9/21 (02:01am) DeSean Jackson is questionable for Week 3.
Take: This will be a game-time decision, so check back all the way up to kickoff, as well as sign up for Smart Alerts.


News: 9/21 (02:01am) Hakeem Nicks (illness) is listed as questionable for Week 3.
Take: This is a game-time decision, meaning you just have to check back frequently all the way up until kickoff (as well as sign up for Smart Alerts)


News: 9/21 (02:01am) Matt Schaub has been ruled out for Week 3.
Take: Derek Carr has a lot of dynasty appeal, it will be fun to watch him mature from Weeks 3-16.


NEWS: Arian Foster and Andre Johnson increase activity on Tuesday.

According to chron.com, both Arian Foster and Andre Johnson increased their activity on Tuesday.

SMITTY: Arian Foster reportedly ran well with the first-team, showing good acceleration, and Andre Johnson also saw action with the first-team. All good signs and both have top 5-10 upside at their positions heading into 2014. Looking for Week 1 Power Rankings on these guys?

NEWS: Andre Johnson and Arian Foster back practicing.

According to Dave Zangaro on Twitter, both Texans WR Andre Johnson (hamstring) and RB Arian Foster (hamstring) are back at practice.

SMITTY: This is great news for both players. If healthy, both have top five upside at their position. Looking for Arian Foster and Andre Johnson Week 1 Power Rankings?

NEWS: Arian Foster sidelined with hamstring strain.

According to Chron.com, Texans RB Arian Foster has been dealing with a hamstring strain and is currently sidelined in camp. “He’s doing OK,” coach Bill O’Brien said. “It’s kind of a day-to-day thing. It’s nothing serious. I would assume – (but) guess you can’t assume anything – he’d be back pretty soon.”

SMITTY: Arian Foster has mixed tags of both ‘bounce-back’ and ‘risk’ heading into this upcoming fantasy season. With an ADP in the 2.01-2.04 range, he essentially win someone a league if he returns to his top 5RB form, which is entirely possible. His injury concerns also could have fantasy owners wasting a top 15 overall pick, that’s why this is kind of a medium-risk/huge-reward type situation. For those overly-concerned about his mileage, Foster only has 1,320 regular-season touches to his name, which is 635 less than Marshawn Lynch (1,955), and 572 less than Matt Forte (1,892). While I won’t be buying Foster in every league in 2014, he is still one of my favorite bounce-back runners heading into August! Looking for Week 1 Arian Foster Power Rankings?

Analyzing the July ADP: 2014 Value Grabs

smitty-staff

Ok, so it’s the middle of July, which means that 2014 fantasy football drafts are around the corner. Are you ready? Do you know know where players are falling on average in recent fantasy football mock drafts? Knowing a player’s ADP (average draft position) is a critical aspect of fantasy football drafting, as you always want to maximize draft value with every pick that you make. Now, what does that mean? Here are two examples:

Not Maximizing Draft Value

An example of this would be drafting Marshawn Lynch in the 1.08-1.09 range. Keep in mind, I am not calling the selecting of Lynch at 1.08-1.09 a bad pick, it’s just not a pick that is going to give you tons of unexpected value. In fact, Lynch has to have a top 5ish fantasy running back season for him to earn you back your investment. While you won’t be able to draft underrated players at every selection, especially in the first round, this is an example of picking a player where he deserves to be selected. There is both nothing wrong with this pick, nor is there anything spectacular about it. It’s just a good predictable pick.

Maximizing Draft Value

An example of this would be to draft Aaron Rodgers at 3.01. Given that Rodgers could arguably lead all fantasy football players in scoring in 2014, there is a ton of room for over-performing with a 3.01 selection. Again, you can’t find value above and beyond at every turn, but in rounds 2-5 (not so much in round 1), there are handfuls of players that fit the bill.

Ok, so now that I’ve explained “Maximizing Draft Value”, it’s time to call out some “value grabs” heading into early 2014 fantasy football drafts. The ADP data below was provided by our friends over at fantasy football calculator:

2014 Fantasy Football ADP (as of 7/16/14)

1
1.02
LeSean McCoy
RB
PHI
2 1.02 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 1.03 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
4 1.05 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 1.05 Calvin Johnson WR DET
6 1.06 Eddie Lacy RB GB
7 1.08 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
8 1.09 Jimmy Graham TE NO
9 1.09 Peyton Manning QB DEN
10 1.09 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
11 1.11 Dez Bryant WR DAL
12 1.12 Montee Ball RB DEN
13 2.01 Arian Foster RB HOU
14 2.02 A.J. Green WR CIN
15 2.03 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
16 2.04 Julio Jones WR ATL
17 2.05 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
18 2.05 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
19 2.07 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 2.08 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
21 2.09 Alfred Morris RB WAS
22 2.1 Drew Brees QB NO
23 2.11 Jordy Nelson WR GB
24 2.12 Doug Martin RB TB
25 3.01 Antonio Brown WR PIT
26 3.02 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
27 3.03 Zac Stacy RB STL
28 3.04 Randall Cobb WR GB
29 3.05 Julius Thomas TE DEN
30 3.06 Andre Ellington RB ARI
31 3.07 C.J. Spiller RB BUF
32 3.07 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
33 3.09 Reggie Bush RB DET
34 3.1 Vincent Jackson WR TB
35 3.11 Keenan Allen WR SD
36 4.01 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
37 4.01 Toby Gerhart RB JAC
38 4.03 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
39 4.03 Victor Cruz WR NYG
40 4.05 Ryan Mathews RB SD
41 4.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
42 4.06 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
43 4.07 Wes Welker WR DEN
44 4.07 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN
45 4.09 Percy Harvin WR SEA
46 4.11 Shane Vereen RB NE
47 4.11 Andre Johnson WR HOU
48 4.11 Frank Gore RB SF
49 4.12 Matthew Stafford QB DET
50 4.12 Michael Crabtree WR SF
51 5.02 Roddy White WR ATL
52 5.02 Chris Johnson RB NYJ
53 5.04 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
54 5.05 Trent Richardson RB IND
55 5.07 Andrew Luck QB IND
56 5.07 Ben Tate RB CLE
57 5.08 Michael Floyd WR ARI
58 5.09 Vernon Davis TE SF
59 5.09 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
60 5.1 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
61 5.11 Joique Bell RB DET
62 6.01 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
63 6.01 Ray Rice RB BAL
64 6.04 Torrey Smith WR BAL
65 6.05 Stevan Ridley RB NE
66 6.06 Nick Foles QB PHI
67 6.06 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
68 6.07 Robert Griffin III QB WAS
69 6.08 Mike Wallace WR MIA
70 6.09 Steven Jackson RB ATL
71 6.1 Julian Edelman WR NE
72 6.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
73 6.11 Pierre Thomas RB NO
74 7.01 Tom Brady QB NE
75 7.02 Marques Colston WR NO
76 7.03 Lamar Miller RB MIA
77 7.05 Maurice Jones-Drew RB OAK
78 7.06 Terrance Williams WR DAL
79 7.06 Matt Ryan QB ATL
80 7.06 Golden Tate WR DET
81 7.07 Jordan Reed TE WAS
82 7.09 Cam Newton QB CAR
83 7.09 Darren Sproles RB PHI
84 7.11 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
85 7.12 Terrance West RB CLE
86 8.01 Kendall Wright WR TEN
87 8.01 Reggie Wayne WR IND
88 8.02 Greg Olsen TE CAR
89 8.03 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
90 8.05 Dennis Pitta TE BAL
91 8.05 Seattle Defense DEF SEA
92 8.05 Bernard Pierce RB BAL
93 8.05 Eric Decker WR NYJ
94 8.08 Tony Romo QB DAL
95 8.09 Darren McFadden RB OAK
96 8.1 Riley Cooper WR PHI
97 8.11 Fred Jackson RB BUF
98 8.12 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN
99 8.12 Brandin Cooks WR NO
100 9.02 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
101 9.03 Knowshon Moreno RB MIA
102 9.04 Khiry Robinson RB NO
103 9.04 Rueben Randle WR NYG
104 9.04 Jay Cutler QB CHI
105 9.05 Danny Woodhead RB SD
106 9.09 Mike Evans WR TB
107 9.09 Hakeem Nicks WR IND
108 9.09 San Francisco Defense DEF SF
109 9.09 Dwayne Bowe WR KC
110 9.1 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
111 9.11 Tavon Austin WR STL
112 10.01 Philip Rivers QB SD
113 10.03 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
114 10.04 Cecil Shorts WR JAC
115 10.05 Zach Ertz TE PHI
116 10.06 Carolina Defense DEF CAR
117 10.06 Christine Michael RB SEA
118 10.08 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
119 10.08 Russell Wilson QB SEA
120 10.08 Danny Amendola WR NE
121 10.1 Kenny Stills WR NO
122 10.11 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
123 10.12 Denver Defense DEF DEN
124 11.01 Anquan Boldin WR SF
125 11.03 Eric Ebron TE DET
126 11.03 St. Louis Defense DEF STL
127 11.04 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
128 11.04 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT
129 11.05 Marvin Jones WR CIN
130 11.07 Carlos Hyde RB SF
131 11.08 Tre Mason RB STL
132 11.08 Ladarius Green TE SD
133 11.09 Andy Dalton QB CIN
134 11.1 New England Defense DEF NE
135 11.1 Jarrett Boykin WR GB
136 11.11 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
137 11.12 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
138 11.12 Aaron Dobson WR NE
139 12.01 Johnny Manziel QB CLE
140 12.04 David Wilson RB NYG
141 12.05 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
142 12.07 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
143 12.07 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
144 12.08 Steve Smith WR BAL
145 12.09 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN
146 12.11 James Jones WR OAK
147 12.12 Matt Prater PK DEN
148 13.01 Josh McCown QB TB
149 13.01 Charles Clay TE MIA
150 13.02 Andre Brown RB HOU

Value Grabs

Round One

There never are a lot of over-performing players in the first-round, as you can only over-perform so much from a first-round draft slot. However, if trying to pin down a couple names, I’d say that both Montee Ball and Peyton Manning have the ability to lead their position in scoring, so given they both have ADPs near the tail-end of the first-round, there is some value if we have to muster some up in this first-round.

Rounds 2-3

2.01 – Arian Foster: Honestly, Foster falls a lot further than this in all the drafts I’ve participated in, but because he has top 5RB appeal, even a 2.01 slotting has some value written all over it. So, expect Foster to fall more in the 2.05-2.12 range in your upcoming draft, and that’s fantastic value. Yes, there are some injury concerns, but Foster only has 1,320 regular-season touches to his name, which is 635 less than Marshawn Lynch (1,955) has to his name, and 572 less than Matt Forte (1,892) has to his name.

2.02 – AJ Green: I’m not sure why a receiver that could potentially finish as the No. 1 overall receiver in 2014 sits at 2.02 — That’s quite a bargain, and this data has over 800 drafts averaged.

2.04 – Julio Jones: Everything just said about AJG above can be said here. Are there injury concerns? Sure, but Julio has as much upside and physical ability than any receiver in the league (if not more).

2.07 – Giovani Bernard: While it’s entirely possible the little guy finishes around this range overall come season’s end, he has a ceiling in the top 5-10RB range, so this is a screaming deal, especially in PPR.

2.08 – Aaron Rodgers: I think I already covered how awesome this value is (in paragraph one of this article); the dude can be the No. 1 overall scorer. I don’t care if QBs fall late, or if there is always good QB value later, anytime you can land a player at 2.08 that can lead all fantasy players in scoring, you’re looking at a monster-type steal.

3.06 – Andre Ellington: Some might even think that this ADP is too high for an unproven Arizona rusher, but the soon-to-be sophomore rusher pulled in 39 passes as a rookie! He is easily considered the starter in AZ heading into 2014, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he drops top 5-10RB numbers. This is a home run pick right here, and if he remains healthy, it’s a pick that won’t likely leave you burned, as he can earn 3.06-type value even if he doesn’t meet my lofty expectations.

3.07 – CJ Spiller: He still has top 10RB appeal, so the risk is low in the middle-to-late third!

Round 4-5

4.07 – Cordarrelle Patterson: There is very little risk right here, as CP can drop low-end WR2-type numbers on a disappointing season. His ceiling is easily top 6-12 for WRs in 2014 and beyond.

5.08 – Michael Floyd: The stud receiver could very well takeover as Arizona’s top option by late this year, or at least early next year. On his journey to that talent level, he should drop super-high fantasy WR2-type numbers.

5.11 – Joique Bell: The runner turns 28 before Week 1, so he is no spring chicken…. just keep that in mind in dynasty, although he has low mileage. For all you yearly-league players out there, this runner could very well crank out high-end fantasy RB2-type stats this upcoming season, which would make him a steal in hindsight when talking about 5.11-type ADP. If healthy, he feels like a lock for 50-60 receptions… I envision him running for 1,000 yards and 6TDs this year, as well… even if he doesn’t, he still earns 5.11-type value in PPR. If he meets my expectations, well, then he crushes 5.11 value!

We could go on and on, as there are handfuls of later-round grabs that could explode from their current ADPs (like Nick Foles in the 6th-round), but this should have you covered through round 5. For more on this topic, or any other, get on the forums!

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft In July (Redraft, PPR)

Below is a 2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (in July), and below each round you will find my commentary/take on that round. This mock draft took place on our forums, so it’s a great indicator of current/true player values. The scoring for this fantasy football mock draft was assumed to be PPR, and it was done with a ‘redraft’ (2014 only) frame of mind. Thanks to all who participated. Enjoy.

Round One
1.01 – LeSean McCoy RB
1.02 – Jamaal Charles RB
1.03 – Adrian Peterson RB
1.04 – Calvin Johnson WR
1.05 – Eddie Lacy RB
1.06 – Matt Forte RB
1.07 – AJ Green WR
1.08 – Demariyus Thomas WR
1.09 – Julio Jones WR
1.10 – Jimmy Graham TE
1.11 – Marshawn Lynch RB
1.12 – Dez Byrant WR

Smitty’s Take: There weren’t very many surprises in round one, and their usually aren’t. Sure, a case can be made for Peyton Manning being round one worthy, but it’s not surprising to see him fall to 2.01. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are spot on in my book, and I can’t argue a bit with 1.04-1.12 (aside from pushing Manning into that 1.09-1.12 range, which isn’t everyone’s cup of tea).

Round Two
2.01 – Peyton Manning QB
2.02 – Monte Ball RB
2.03 – Aaron Rodgers QB
2.04 – Rob Gronkowski TE
2.05 – Doug Martin RB
2.06 – Brandon Marshall WR
2.07 – Antonio Brown WR
2.08 – Randall Cobb WR
2.09 – Demarco Murray RB
2.10 – Arian Foster RB
2.11 – Leveon Bell RB
2.12 – Julius Thomas TE

Smitty’s Take: Ok, so this is where one draft will look completely different than another draft (even if that mock draft took place on the same exact forum 10 minutes later). I love the value of Montee Ball, even though his value has climbed higher than most expected (aside from us, as we predicted the climb). This is a redraft mock, but we’ve been pimping Ball since last season, and he and Nick Foles (and Christine Michael) have been our top “go get” players all off-season long. This was when Foles was still in most everyone’s bottom-half of their top ten-ranked passers, and this was before Ball started sniffing second-round value (he was even a 4th-round player on average back in February). In redraft, though, don’t shy away from making Ball your second-drafted player, as he is very likely to crank out top 1-5RB numbers in that extremely-potent Denver offense. I wouldn’t even shy away from grabbing him ahead of Lynch in round one. Crazy? Well, let’s talk come season’s end.

Aaron Rodgers probably seems high to some, and not high to others. Frankly, how high QBs go depends on your league and league trends, so anyone suggesting that Rodgers at 2.03 is too early, or too late, is obviously speaking based on trends that they see league-wide. His 2.03 slotting above is neither too early or too late, as he can easily earn top 15 overall value. Doug Martin has a touch more risk than upside at his 2.05 slotting above, but if you can handcuff him to Charles Sims, you can minimize most of that risk. But, if drafting at that spot, I would have let him slide to the 2.10-2.12 range, which is where I’m more comfortable snagging Martin in 2014; he has tons of talent, but he also has an injury label that he needs to shake, plus he has a potential sharing situation heading his way. Arian foster has awesome value heading into 2014, as he constantly falls in that late second-round range. He may go in the first-round in some leagues, as again, every league is different with players like this (faced injury the prior season and has some overworked concerns). He has top 5RB upside, so 2.10 is low-risk/high-reward in my opinion.

Round Three
3.01 – Giovani Bernard RB
3.02 – CJ Spiller RB
3.03 – Nick Foles QB
3.04 – Jordy Nelson WR
3.05 – Victor Cruz WR
3.06 – Drew Brees QB
3.07 – Keenan Allen WR
3.08 – Zac Stacy RB
3.09 – Bishop Stankey RB
3.10 – Cordarrelle Patterson WR
3.11 – Andre Johnson WR
3.12 – Pierre Garcon WR

Smitty’s Take: I love the value of Gio Bernard at 3.01, but I don’t think you will see him fall that far on average. I could be wrong, and I sure hope that I am wrong, as I’d love this value in all my real upcoming 2014 fantasy football drafts. Gio Bernard is fantasy RB1-capable, yet he landed at 3.01 above… that’s crazy-good value, and again, that’s why I think that this won’t happen on average (he will more often be a 2.04-2.08 range player). Cordarrelle Patterson is now creeping into the 3rd-round in a lot of early 2014 mock drafts… expect this trend to continue, possibly even in the upward direction. He can earn that value, though, he has WR1-type upside, I just wonder if that production is still a year away. It might not be, but it gets a bit risky when you’re talking 3rd-round vs. 4th-round is all (I like him a lot in the 4th). Keenan Allen is another player that is climbing mock draft boards as of late, and let me tell you, I see the guy producing borderline low-end fantasy WR1-type numbers this year. He often falls into the 4th-round outside of STARTERS/DraftCalc communities, so snag him in the 4th-round where you can, as he can crush that value! Nick Foles is another player that ranks and gets drafted higher in DraftCalc and FFStarters worlds, so know that he often falls to the 4th-round, or even the 5th-round… and if I consider the 3rd-round still a steal (in terms of what he can do by season’s end), you can imagine how big of a steal he is to me at 4th- and 5th-round value. Use ADP data to your advantage and don’t draft Foles in the 3rd-round if you don’t have to, but I think we’re about to see Foles drop a top 3 fantasy QB season (with appearances with the top 1-2 on lots of occasions).

Round Four
4.01 – Andre Ellington RB
4.02 – Alshon Jefferey WR
4.03 – Matthew Stafford QB
4.04 – Alfred Morris RB
4.05 – Michael Floyd WR
4.06 – Vincent Jackson WR
4.07 – Wes Welker WR
4.08 – Frank Gore RB
4.09 – Andrew Luck QB
4.10 – Kendall Wright WR
4.11 – Percy Harvin WR
4.12 – Shane Vereen RB

Smitty’s Take: Not a lot of surprises in terms of players falling into this round, but I will say that Andre Ellington is the only running back left that has top 5-10 fantasy running back upside. He has almost no risk as a 4th- to 5th-round pick, because he pulled in 39 receptions as a rookie, and 40-50 receptions feels like a given entering his first season as a starter. Ellington has HUGE, HUGE upside! I can’t wait to watch him breakout!

Just Missed The Cut

Now, a 4th-round argument can be made for any of the below players, especially Ben Tate (if handcuffed to Terrance West), Tom Brady, and Chris Johnson.

Larry Fitzgerald
Reggie Bush
Sammy Watkins
Ben Tate & Terrance West
Trent Richardson
Toby Gerhart
Chris Johnson
Rashad Jennings
Joique Bell
Cam Newton
Tom Brady
RG3
Ryan Mathews
Mike Evans
Vernon Davis
Ray Rice / Bernard Pierce
Jordan Cameron
Michael Crabtree
Eric Decker
Lamar Miller
Mike Wallace
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Hakeem Nicks
Julian Edelman

NEWS: Alfred Blue could be Arian Foster’s back-up in 2014; Foster to bounce-back?

According to ESPN, Texans rookie RB Alfred Blue has a chance to earn the Texans’ back-up running back job behind starter Arian Foster.

SMITTY: Alfred Blue is a big boy at 6-2, 223 pounds. I like him a lot for that back-up gig come mid-season, but I suspect that Andre Brown is going to come out of the preseason looking most prepared to be Arian Foster’s back-up (and must-own). Now, I have Foster pegged for a bounce-back season in 2014… coach Bill O’Brien recently said that Foster will fill the roles played by previous students of his (Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead back in New England), which could mean 50-60 receptions for Foster in 2014. If healthy, he could still see anywhere between 250-280 carries, which should have him producing 1,100-1,200 rushing yards and potentially double-digit touchdowns. Interesting facts: Matt Forte has 1,892 regular-season touches to his name, and Marshawn Lynch has 1,955 regular-season touches to his name… Foster, a player many have written off as overworked, has just 1,320 total touches to his name. Want 2014 Full-Season Fantasy Football Projections for Foster?

NEWS: Andre Johnson expected to show up; Arian Foster set to bounce-back?

ESPN’s Tania Ganguli expects Texans WR Andre Johnson “to be back in the fold for the Texans despite his current holdout.”

SMITTY: We expect the same, as Andre Johnson, turning 33 this month, has no leverage. Houston won’t likely trade him, nor could they at a value that helps the Texans. We don’t see AJ holding out long at all. While it could take until his third season, DeAndre Hopkins might have a sophomore breakout similar to Michael Floyd’s second-year jump. During his second NFL season, Michael Floyd dropped 66/1054/5TDs, something Hopkins almost sniffed as a rookie (52/802/2TDs). Floyd now enters 2014 with a real nice chance of hitting a stat line like 80/1100/8-10TDs. Don’t be surprised if Hopkins follows Floyd’s exact blueprint to elite, but again keep in mind he could end up taking an extra year to get to Floyd’s level, you never know. The player I’m most excited about on that Texans roster is Arian Foster, who might have a big-time bounce-back season this upcoming year. Earlier last month, coach Bill O’Brien said that Foster would fill the roles played by Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead back in New England. That could mean 50-60 receptions for Foster in 2014, and he could still see anywhere between 250-280 carries, which could have him producing 1,100-1,200 yards and potentially double-digit touchdowns. I know, Foster has tons of mileage, right? Here are some interesting stats: Matt Forte = 1,892 regular-season touches; Marshawn Lynch = 1,955 regular-season touches…. How many regular-season touches does Foster have? Try just 1,320! See what we have projected for all these players via our 2014 Full-Season Fantasy Football Projections.

NEWS: Ryan Fitzpatrick named starter for Texans.

According to houstontexans.com’s Drew Dougherty, Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been named the team’s starting quarterback.

SMITTY: This was expected, but keep an eye on Tom Savage for the long-term. Look for the Texans to run a ton early on in 2014, which is exactly what Arian Foster owners want to hear. Foster is setup to have a huge bounce-back season – he just has to stay healthy. While fantasy owners of both Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins might not be jumping for joy over the thought of Fitzpatrick starting in 2014, he is very capable of 3,400-3,800 yards and 24TDs… when playing roughly 16 games, that’s exactly where his numbers fall, which will easily provide enough targets for Johnson to warrant low-end fantasy WR1-type numbers. DeAndre Hopkins has strong WR3-type upside entering 2014.

NEWS: Arian Foster to catch a lot of passes in 2014?

According to csnhouston.com, Texans coach Bill O’Brien will use Arian Foster in the passing game much like he has used Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead in his previously-coached offenses.

SMITTY: With a shockingly-low 2nd-round ADP (according to most ADP data), there is a ton to like about Arian Foster heading into 2014. If he stays healthy, he could blast past 300 total touches (maybe even 330-340), and 50 of those could be receptions (if not more). There are few players outside the top 12-15 (ADP-wise) that have as high a ceiling as Foster, and that ceiling is top 5-10RB type value. For those that feel Foster has too much mileage on his tires, keep in mind that his career regular-season carry total is just 1,131, whereas Marshawn Lynch has 1,753 carries to his name, and Matt Forte has 1,551 carries to his name. Still feel that Foster has been overworked? Check out our 2014 projections for Foster (based on your league scoring) right here:
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