SMITTY: This is bad news for those counting on “Shoelace” as their low-end RB2 in Weeks 15-17. Toby Gerhart, Jordan Todman, and Storm Johnson will likely split the carries moving forward (with no real front-runner for starter carries – yet). Robinson’s future is decent, but cloudy. Looking for Week 15 Power Rankings?
SMITTY: Toby Gerhart saw just 10 snaps in Week 5. He got banged up, but he still has been seeing a decrease in snaps as of late, as he saw just 20 the week prior, which was 10 less than the week before, which was 5 less than the week before, which was over 10 from the week before that. See the pattern here? The writing is on the wall and that writing says ‘Get ready for the Storm Johnson show. Will it be a big event, or will he get all the touches, but still not manage big-time fantasy scoring? That’s tough to say, but he is a must-grab right now, that’s not in question. Looking for Week 6 Power Rankings?
According to reports, Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart had a sore after Sunday’s loss to the Eagles.
SMITTY: He left the game, then came back, but only rushed for 42 yards on 18 runs. We haven’t been real high on Gerhart since he landed the starting gig in Jacksonville. We haven’t called him a flat-out bust or anything, but given his draft value in June-August, we just weren’t a fan. Be sure to sign-up for our Smart Alerts to get all of the latest updates on players like Gerhart heading into Week 2.
According to jacksonville.com, Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart will “pull the wagon” for the Jaguars in 2014. “Toby will be our workhorse,” Jaguars OC Jedd Fisch said.
SMITTY: Toby Gerhart is a breakout candidate, no question, but he also still has some risk attached to his name given his alarmingly-high 3.10-4.02 ADP. That ADP continues to climb, too. I said this weeks ago, I’ll say it today, and I’ll continue to say it tomorrow… it’s not that I’m predicting ‘bust’ out of Gerhart, but I like way too many players around his ADP to ever see myself drafting him in 2014. Players hanging around that 3.10-4.02 range are: Keenan Allen, Andre Ellington (not always), Andre Johnson and Cordarrelle Patterson. Looking for Week 1 Power Rankings?
According to Mike Clay on Twitter, Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart has a career 4.4 YPC average, and has “a combine 5.6 YPC vs. Nickle/Dime/Quarter” packages.
SMITTY: Toby Gerhart is a player you either love, or doubt. There doesn’t seem to be much in between. I won’t go as far as to call him a bust candidate, because I think he has low-end RB2-type value, but I won’t be owning him much this upcoming season given that his ADP is in the high-end RB2-type range. In leagues where I did own the guy, I made some lateral trades into players I quietly value a bit higher, or I packaged Gerhart into a 2-for-1 and upgraded my quarterback into a Drew Brees or Nick Foles type passer. Sometimes selling high is just safe. If you do plan to roll with Gerhart in 2014, trust your gut, but be sure to back him up with Jordan Todman (and monitor rookie Storm Johnson). If you want to spit up the coffee you’re drinking as you read our news, check out our Nick Foles projections for 2014.
According to Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter, there are high expectations for Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart in 2014. “Here’s a name that keeps coming up in my talks with personnel guys around the league: Toby Gerhart,” Jeremiah tweeted.
SMITTY: I like Toby Gerhart, but with an ADP now near 4.01-4.03, he is a touch more risk than he is upside. Breakout candidates like Cordarrelle Patterson and Michael Floyd have ADPs just after Gerhart. Even Andre Johnson is getting snagged right around that 4.01-4.04 range. As I said, I like Gerhart, but not at his current draft/trade value. He is a great player to sell-high if the offer is right. After you draft, be sure to utilize our Trade Analyzer.
According to usatoday.com, Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart will “get the bulk of the carries and he’ll be a great asset.”
SMITTY: Entering 2014, Gerhart is almost both a ‘sleeper’ grab and a ‘high-risk’ grab. I know it’s hard to be both, but somehow how he fits that mold. Could Gerhart be a fantasy RB2 in 2014? Absolutely. Can he be a complete bust? Sure. My advice, if you plan to roster the guy this season, is to handcuff him to Jordan Todman (and keep an eye on Storm Johnson). Gerhart is going as high as the third-round in some drafts, and as late as the early 6th-round in others. I think there is tremendous risk in that earlier territory; for me, he becomes a good bargain in the late 5th- to early 6th-round, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a chance on him in the 4th-round… I just personally wouldn’t grab him there.
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The Florida Times-Union is reporting that the Jaguars like Toby Gerhart’s “ability to gain yards after contact and thrive on third down.”
SMITTY: Look, there are several reasons to like Toby Gerhart right now, but there are even more reasons to sell-high in dynasty formats. Don’t sell-low, I’m not predicting that Gerhart will for sure be a bust, but given that fantasy worlds seem to be settling into the idea that this guy holds steady RB2-type value, I say package Gerhart in a more complex deal and upgrade another runner into stud territory (or make a lateral move into a safer-type player, one that you’d be just fine with should Gerhart even go on to prove to be the real deal). And, as far as redraft leagues go, I’m not sure about you guys, but now that Gerhart is pulling in ADP data around names like Andre Johnson, Trent Richardson, Chris Johnson, and even Cordarrelle Patterson, I’m staying clear of the Jaguars’ rusher (at those prices at least)… I even love me some Joique Bell over Gerhart heading into yearly-league drafts! If you roll with Gerhart in any format, though, Jordan Todman is a must-own handcuff! Our Draft Analyzer, which will certainly help you maneuver through such dilemmas, will be 2014-ready soon!
Source: Florida Times-Union