Ok, so it’s only the middle of April, and 2015 Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are hardly settled, especially with the upcoming 2015 NFL Draft…. that said, it’s still fun, and important, to dig into the data and find out which players are looking overvalued heading into the upcoming fantasy football season, and which players look like early sleeper candidates.
This is REDRAFT ADP Data.
2015 ADP Data
Date: 4/21/15 | Source: Mixture of Industry-leading ‘Redraft’ ADPs
Note: I have placed notes next to certain players that are worth talking about, good or bad.
1 LeVeon Bell RB PIT – Keep in mind that a lot of this ADP data piled on prior to his suspension being announced, but even if we looked at only recent drafts, he will likely be near top 5.
2 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 Eddie Lacy RB GB
4 Adrian Peterson RB MIN – Surprisingly high for even redraft ADP data, but certainly still worth this pick. He could still be the No. 1 rusher in fantasy.
5 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
6 Antonio Brown WR PIT – Not surprising, however, his value is almost too high for him to exceed any further expectations. I’d almost rather trade down and land an AJ Green or Julio Jones in the 18-20ish range, thus moving up in a draft at other spots.
7 Matt Forte RB CHI – Year of decline? Or, does he have one more top 1-5RB season left? Certainly consider selling in dynasty. This is redraft ADP Data, though, so this slot is warranted, but concern is present for sure, even in redraft.
8 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
9 Dez Bryant WR DAL
10 DeMarco Murray RB PHI – Solid value, but still ranked about right given the risks involved in moving teams, getting hurt, and playing for an offense that just had LeSean McCoy bust.
11 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
12 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG – This is high, but he is worth the ranking.
13 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN – Solid value, but also a decent place to slot him given there are ‘some’ questions about Peyton Manning delivering top 1-3QB numbers this year.
14 Calvin Johnson WR DET – Very solid value. He is still Calvin, and unless we’re talking dynasty, he has No. 1WR upside still.
15 Arian Foster RB HOU – Foster was on our Upside Board last year, and for good reason. However, this year, there is a touch more risk he misses more than 1-2 games.
16 Jordy Nelson WR GB – Solid value, as always. He is always an underrated fantasy WR1.
17 Julio Jones WR ATL – Huge upside ranked this late, but about right given the risks. I like this value vs risk, it’s a risk worth taking given his 1-3 fantasy wide receiver ceiling.
18 A.J. Green WR CIN – Steal. It’s hard to imagine him not earning at least this value, and that screams sleeper given the slot, as he could be a top 1-4 fantasy wide receiver this season.
19 Aaron Rodgers QB GB – Some say a QB in the second is too early. I say no way, not when you’re talking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, as both have No. 1 overall upside in most all formats (especially leagues where QBs get 6pts per TD.
20 CJ Anderson RB DEN – It’s too risky counting on this situation as your RB2.
21 Jeremy Hill RB CIN – While I love Hill, who was an Upside Board player last year, ranking No. 21 means he has less upside than most would like. This seems like a fair value type slotting, meaning the ‘ceiling’ value isn’t through the roof.
22 Andrew Luck QB IND – See what I just said above regarding Aaron Rodgers.
23 Randall Cobb WR GB
24 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI – A top 5 fantasy WR season on the way?
25 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
26 Carlos Hyde RB SF – Get ready, this kid could be a top 5-10RB, a potential that makes this 26th overall ranking very solid.
27 Mike Evans WR TB – Beast in the making.
28 Jimmy Graham TE SEA – Solid value given he could still rival Rob Gronkowski. “Could” being the keyword, as we just don’t know what is in store for Graham in Seattle.
29 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN – This is a risky third player to draft in 2015. I like him as a 4th- or 5th-drafted player, but it seems like his ADP is just too high to snag him at those levels. I say pass on him in 2015, he has to play out of his mind to earn his value back, and that is questionable given how so many are predicting less passing in DEN in 2015.
30 Justin Forsett RB BAL – Risky in some ways, still solid ‘upside’ down here at No. 30 overall. What BAL does in the draft will move this guy around a ton between now and 2015.
31 Lamar Miller RB MIA – A former Upside Board candidate that could explode later than expected? We have always seen top 5-10RB numbers in this kid, he just needs/needed a chance.
32 Mark Ingram RB NO – Solid value given his ceiling. His playing time and job security are the risks, but that seems pretty well built into his ADP at this point. Great news.
33 Frank Gore RB IND – He could squeeze out one more elite year in this situation. Then again, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to see him just have decent success, or great success here and there.
34 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR – Solid future, and very solid value given he has WR2 upside.
35 Alfred Morris RB WAS
36 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
37 Peyton Manning QB DEN – Are there concerns? Sure, but at this value who cares?
38 Joique Bell RB DET
39 Tre Mason RB STL – Top 10RB in the making? Or, is he yet another runner that will be overlooked and underutilized by his coaching staff?
40 Jordan Matthews WR PHI – Nice situation, huge talent.
41 Brandin Cooks WR NO – This screams value, as he could catch 90+ balls in 2015 – easy.
42 Latavius Murray RB OAK – Huge sleeper, but will OAK draft a runner? Will Oakland screw this up? They could, but the risk seems built into the ADP. Trust in Murray at 42 overall value, no question. He is worth that risk!
43 Russell Wilson QB SEA
44 Julian Edelman WR NE
45 Sammy Watkins WR BUF – Sleeper. Wow. In redraft, at least, it appears Sammy Watkins is being overlooked. Take full advantage.
46 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR – Not sure I trust him, even here. I wouldn’t call this all that risky, though, but with players like Drew Brees, brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry and Tom Brady still available in redraft, I couldn’t take JStew just yet.
47 Drew Brees QB NO – Steal in redraft.
48 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ – Solid value, but it looks like many fear a decline in NY this year. Again, solid value, but expectations should be somewhat curbed in NY.
49 Andre Ellington RB ARI
50 Golden Tate WR DET
51 Greg Olsen TE CAR
52 Andre Johnson WR IND – He still could be elite, for at least this year, in IND.
53 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
54 Travis Kelce TE KC
55 Jarvis Landry WR MIA – Like with Sammy Watkins above, wow. This is great value in redraft.
56 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
57 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
58 Martavis Bryant WR PIT – Steal.
59 Tom Brady QB NE – Solid value.
60 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
61 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
62 C.J. Spiller RB NO – Huge appeal at this value. He could bust, sure, but the risk is minimal at 62 overall.
63 Giovani Bernard RB CIN – Don’t write him off after one year. CIN has room for both he and Jeremy Hill. He is worth the gamble at this slot, no question.
64 Keenan Allen WR SD
65 Todd Gurley RB FA – Steal. He may not play right away, or if he does, he could be limited. That doesn’t matter. He could be a top 10RB once he does get into his team’s line-up.
66 Julius Thomas TE JAC
67 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
68 Victor Cruz WR NYG – This is way too high given his injury.
69 Matt Ryan QB ATL
70 Darren McFadden RB DAL
71 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT
72 Mike Wallace WR MIN
73 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
74 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
75 Roddy White WR ATL
76 Denard Robinson RB JAC
77 Michael Floyd WR ARI
78 Cam Newton QB CAR
79 Doug Martin RB TB
80 Antonio Gates TE SD
81 Vincent Jackson WR TB
82 Torrey Smith WR BAL
83 Tony Romo QB DAL
84 Branden Oliver RB SD
85 Matthew Stafford QB DET
86 Brandon LaFell WR NE
87 Kenny Stills WR MIA
88 Melvin Gordon RB FA – This is high-way robbery, but I don’t see Melvin Gordon ranking this low after the draft. Look for him to be a 3rd- to 4th-round pick come August. Expect that, at least.
89 Shane Vereen RB NYG
90 Jerick McKinnon RB MIN
91 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
92 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
93 Donte Moncrief WR IND – Could breakout in 2015.
94 Jordan Cameron TE MIA
95 Owen Daniels TE DEN
96 Eli Manning QB NYG
97 Steve Smith WR BAL
98 Dwayne Allen TE IND
99 Knile Davis RB KC
100 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI