Archive for trading

Demaryius Thomas to decline in 2016?

If you own Demaryius Thomas in dynasty, it might be time to trade him. If you play in redraft, unless the price is right, it might be time to start avoiding him. DT use to be a second-round fantasy talent, and while it’s always possible he still cranks out that kind of production in 2016, he has a miserable QB situation in 2016 (Mark Sanchez, or overwhelmed rookie Paxton Lynch), he is 28 years old (turning 29 in December) and the team might plan to run more than ever in 2016. In dynasty, I wouldn’t suggest that anyone sell so low you are trading him in for a 6th- or 7th-round WR talent, but you might be able to get crafty and do a straight one-for-one swap for an underrated TY Hilton. Hilton is 26 and has a top 1-3 passer throwing him the football… this is the kind of ‘downgrade’ that seems feasible trade-wise, given the trade market values of both players, and it’s a great way to rebuild and plan for the future. And, in redraft, the two, Thomas and Hilton, have just about the exact ADP, so consider drafting a Hilton-type before you draft DT.

Note: The Draft Analyzer agrees with this doubting of DT, as it has the WR roughly ranked around 18-21 heading into 2016.

Other names to consider over Demaryius Thomas, regardless of position:

  • Jarvis Landry MIA
  • Jeremy Langford CHI RB
  • Andrew Luck IND QB
  • Aaron Rodgers GB QB

What WRs are jumping out on the 2016 Draft Analyzer Rankings?

Allen Robinson | JAC

(ranked inside 2-3 for WRs)

Depending on your scoring settings, Allen Robinson is likely getting top 3WR love from the 2016 Draft Analyzer. Of course, don’t draft him that high, as his ADP is around 2.01 -2.03, which right around the 6th- to 7th-ranked WR in most drafts. Use ADPs to your advantage while realizing that the Draft Analyzer is seeing some overwhelmingly-positive data-driven things in Robinson heading into 2016.

More WRs Ranking High on the Draft Analyzer

Brandin Cooks – NO – He is currently ranking in inside the top 8-11 for WRs on the Draft Analyzer, depending on your entered league scoring. There is a lot to like about Cooks, and certainly use his third-round ADP to your advantage. He is roughly the 14th-16th ranked WR in most any draft, so be sure to draft him there, but understand that the Analyzer is calling for a big season out of the guy.

Jarvis Landry – MIA – He is definitely a breakout candidate, and the Analyzer is ranking him near the top 9-11 for WRs. Again, as said above, this is higher than his ADP, by about 5-7 WR spots, so use ADPs to your advantage and just know that the Analyzer is predicting big things out of Landry in 2016.

Allen Hurns – JAC – As with Landry and Cooks, Hurns is ranking in, according to the Draft Analyzer, near the top 10-13 for WRs in 2016. This is about 2-3 rounds higher than his ADP, which has him coming in around the 18th-21st ranked WR in an average draft. Expect big things, but draft accordingly and not too early.

Randall Cobb – GB – A forgotten man, Cobb should rebound in 2016, as will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cobb is right around the 15th-18th ranked WR in most any mock draft, but the Analyzer is calling for a top 10-12 fantasy season. Use this info to your advantage, but draft as low as you can, as the ADPs suggest you can.

Dynasty: AJ Green a good buy-low?

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Dynasty Player of the Week

Buy-Low: AJ Green

It’s actually head-scratching how undervalued AJ Green is right now in dynasty. His ADP in all formats, redraft and dynasty, has now entered the 2nd-round, which is awesome news if you’re crafty and looking to trade. Often times in dynasty leagues, fantasy owners think too far into the future. Green, turning 28 this July, is still capable of being a top 1-5 fantasy WR during any give season, and given WRs usually can play at an elite level through 32, he still has 3-4 years left as a player that can drop top 5ish fantasy wide receiver numbers. That’s a long time in dynasty, 3-4 years, yet so many focus on only obtaining players that are 23 and 24 years old. This approach often has fantasy owners rarely winning titles, as they are always chasing ‘the build’ of their team. One strategy I’ve used as of late, in leagues where I needed to shake things up, is to trade a top 1-3 ranked receiver, like an Odell Beckham, for an undervalued AJ Green, thus allowing me to ask for a nice upgrade elsewhere. It won’t fly now, but I was able to upgrade my 1.03 to the 1.01 using this so called ‘downgrade’ to AJ Green. Now I own Ezekiel Elliott because of that move. Again, that’s not a move anyone would do now, as the 1.01 has now become Elliott, but you get the point and you see how one can turn a so called ‘downgrade’ into something more. Believe in AJG, he still has tier one WR appeal for a handful of years!

Wide Receivers to Doubt in 2016?

Below you will find a few big name wide receivers we caution against drafting in 2016, unless the price is right. Everything comes down to value.

Brandon Marshall | WR Jets

He is coming off a phenomenal season in 2015, posting 109 receptions for 1502 yards and 14TDs. But, he is also entering his 11th NFL season. I’ve seen him drafted as high as 9-11 for WRs, and seen him go at 15-17 for WRs. I like him in that 15-20 range, no question, but as a top 10WR, I worry about him breaking down in 2016. So, draft accordingly and let others reach based on last year’s numbers.

Alshon Jeffery | WR Bears

He always seems banged up, and his ADP is too high for our liking top 8-10WR range. If he can be drafted as a WR2, by all means, draft the guy with a smile. But, he is a risky fantasy WR1, he just is.

Kelvin Benjamin | WR Panthers

The receiver is fully expected to be ready for 2016, as he recovers from last year’s ACL tear. While he had a big 2014, pulling in 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and 9TDs, he feels a bit overrated heading into 2016 fantasy football drafts and mocks. He is sometimes ranked inside the top 15-20 receivers, and while he could post such numbers in 2016, there are a number of safer options at that higher end of 15-20 (like Jarvis Landry for example). Don’t consider Benjamin a bust candidate, we aren’t predicting bust, but don’t draft too high, and consider selling high in leagues where you already own him, as his trade value seems awesome!

Running Backs to Doubt in 2016?

Below you will find a few big name running backs we caution against drafting in 2016, unless the price is right. Everything comes down to value.

Mark Ingram | RB Saints

It’s not that we doubt the guy’s talent, as he can play like a top 10RB when fed the ball. However, his ADP is in the top 10RB range, and that’s a bit high given his injury history and the potential he doesn’t get the carries he deserves. Don’t trade him away on the cheap if you own him in dynasty, but make sure you rank him in the low, low end of the RB2s heading into 2016, this way he won’t disappoint. We’ve seen some value him as a low end RB1 and that’s risky.

CJ Anderson | RB Broncos

Not only is his lack of experience a red flag, so is his inability to stay on the field. And, with Devontae Booker, the new rookie in Denver, now on the Denver roster, Anderson ‘could’ disappoint in 2016. Again, like with Ingram above, don’t sell cheap if you already own him in dynasty, but don’t draft him in upcoming drafts expecting elite RB1 numbers. His ADP is super high and we just don’t like the value even if he is relatively talented. If you plan to roll with CJ this year, just be sure to cuff him to Booker!

Thomas Rawls | RB Seahawks

He is still equal parts sleeper and risk, so know that the potential is there. This is great for those that bought low months and months ago in dynasty. Keep him, or trade him high… but don’t sell dirt cheap. All that said, don’t go drafting him at high-end RB2 value at this point, as the Seahawks drafted two rookies that have big skill sets, one being CJ Prosise. Cuff him to Rawls if you roll with Rawls this year! If drafting today, though, I think I avoid Rawls at his current asking price. I bought low in a lot of leagues, and I’m happy about that, but values change and some players turn into risks at the going rates. This is that situation.

2016 Rookie-Only Draft (post NFL Draft)

Below is a fresh 2016 Fantasy Football Rookie-Only Expert Draft. This is a real draft amongst ‘experts’ in the fantasy football industry, so it’s an interesting take on where to slot 2016 rookies. With the NFL Draft complete, it’s time to see where the 2016 rookies fall as you prepare for your rookie-only league drafts.

Round One

1.01 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB (R)
1.02 Doctson, Josh WAS WR (R)
1.03 Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R)
1.04 Coleman, Corey CLE WR (R)
1.05 Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R)
1.06 Henry, Derrick TEN RB (R)
1.07 Fuller, Will HOU WR (R)
1.08 Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB (R)
1.09 Thomas, Michael NOS WR (R)
1.10 Boyd, Tyler CIN WR (R)
1.11 Carroo, Leonte MIA WR (R)
1.12 Booker, Devontae DEN RB (R)

First-Round Observations: No shock seeign Ezekel Elliott go at the 1.01. In fact, there is no reason you should ever see another player ever drafted at the 1.01 in any upcoming rookie-only draft. I’m not suggesting that a player can’t come out of nowhere and be this year’s David Johnson, but ADPs suggest you can get a TON via trade if you don’t want Elliott for whatever reason. I think the first three receivers going right after Elliott is par for the course, as Doctson, Treadwell and Coleman have the most upside after Elliott, but keep an eye on Kenneth Dixon (1.08) and Devontae Booker (1.12). Derek Henry was a big name player heading into the 2016 NFL Draft, but his situation behind DeMarco Murray is not an attractive one heading into the next couple of years.

The Rest…

Round One

2.01 Prosise, C.J. SEA RB (R)
2.02 Howard, Jordan CHI RB (R)
2.03 Goff, Jared RAM QB (R)
2.04 Perkins, Paul NYG RB (R)
2.05 Marshall, Keith WAS RB (R)
2.06 Henry, Hunter SDC TE (R)
2.07 Thomas, Mike RAM WR (R)
2.08 Williams, Jonathan BUF RB (R)
2.09 Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR (R)
2.10 Hogan, Chris NEP WR
2.11 Hooper, Austin ATL TE (R)
2.12 Allen, Dwayne IND TE

Round One

3.01 Washington, DeAndre OAK RB (R)
3.02 Higbee, Tyler RAM TE (R)
3.03 Payton, Jordan CLE WR (R)
3.04 Drake, Kenyan MIA RB (R)
3.05 Miller, Braxton HOU WR (R)
3.06 Moore, Chris BAL WR (R)
3.07 Wentz, Carson PHI QB (R)
3.08 Cooper, Pharoh RAM WR (R)
3.09 Ervin, Tyler HOU RB (R)
3.10 Garrett, Keyarris CAR WR (R)
3.11 Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB (R)
3.12 Lynch, Paxton DEN QB (R)

Round One

4.01 Higgins, Rashard CLE WR (R)
4.02 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR
4.03 Ferguson, Josh IND RB (R)
4.04 Heuerman, Jeff DEN TE
4.05 Collins, Alex SEA RB (R)
4.06 Listenbee, Kolby BUF WR (R)
4.07 Janis, Jeff GBP WR
4.08 Quick, Brian RAM WR
4.09 Peake, Charone NYJ WR (R)
4.10 Miller, Zach CHI TE
4.11 Sharpe, Tajae TEN WR (R)
4.12 Tucker, Justin BAL PK

Bounce-Back Players for 2016

Below are a list of just a few bounce-back fantasy football candidates heading into the 2016 NFL fantasy football season. Have a few names you want to toss out? Comment below!

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has reportedly lost 15-18 pounds since the end of last year. Some are even suggesting that he will enter 2016 in the best shape of his life. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him, but if he can be had at RB2 value entering 2016, and currently that’s the case, he has bounce-back written all over him.

Jordy Nelson

Another Packer with bounce-back written all over him. Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit last year, as did the Packers, and one reason is that Rodgers lost Jordy. Jordy is always underrated, but coming off injury, he is more likely to get overlooked than ever. Buy-low, at least until his ADP climbs back into stud range, and it may. Once it does, then he is a tad risky and the appeal is somewhat lost.

Andrew Luck

Most expect a bounce-back, but given that he and Aaron Rodgers both struggled last year, and now with Brady again looking at a 4-game suspension, QBs might fall further than they should in 2016. Take advantage, as Luck (and Rodgers) both have top 10 overall value, it’s just that QBs are waited on in almost every veteran fantasy football draft. At 3rd- and 4th-round value, we say don’t wait, be the one to snag either QB.

Jamaal Charles

He should bounce-back from injury nicely, for at least one season. Don’t spend a top 5RB pick on him, but if you can get him near 2nd-round value, or particularly at 2nd-round value, strike!

DeMarco Murray

Risky, sure, especially with a new team (TEN); however, he is still top 5-10RB skilled, and TEN wanted him, which is a change from his situation in PHI last year. His ADP is in the 3rd/4th, so the risk is very low, whereas the reward is 1st-round possible.

Ranking the top 20 Dynasty WRs

Below are our Top 20 Dynasty Wide Receivers for 2016. Feel a player is too high or too low? Comment below!

WRs 1-10

1. Antonio Brown – It’s hard to argue against him being the 1.01 overall.
2. Julio Jones – Like with Antonio Brown, a strong case can be made for Julio being the 1.01, especially in PPR.
3. Deandre Hopkins – He is as capable of both Julio and Antonio.
4. Odell Beckham Jr. – He has a big more risk than the three receivers above, but he has as much upside. He is a top 2-4 fantasy WR in any format.
5. Dez Bryant – Capable of being the top WR during any season, but also capable of getting hurt or disappointing. The risk has him falling somewhere between 4-6 for 2016 WRs, which is safe.
6. AJ Green – Good value for a guy fully capable of being a top 1-5 WR. Great value.
7. Allen Robinson – Sometimes WRs explode and then vanish, so there is some logic to playing it safe with ranking Allen too high. I think this is a very safe range to rank him.
8. Demaryius Thomas – Will he see enough targets in DEN in 2016?
9. Amari Cooper – Of all the WRs in this lower half of the top 10, this guy has the most ceiling.
10. Mike Evans – Both he and Cooper have high, high ceilings at 8-10WR rankings/values.

WRs 11-20

11. Sammy Watkins
12. Josh Gordon
13. Alshon Jeffery
14. Keenan Allen
15. Jarvis Landry
16. Jordan Matthews
17. Brandin Cooks
18. Emmanual Sanders
19. Randall Cobb
20. Brandon Marshall/Doug Balwin/Julian Edelman/TY Hilton/Jordy Nelson

Ranking the Top 20 Dynasty QBs

Who are the Top 25 Dynasty Quarterbacks right now?

Top Dogs by Tier

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers – Only the guy below him holds near the same value, especially in leagues that award 6 points per TD.
2. Andrew Luck – He had a bad 2015, but he is just as elite and long-term valuable as A-Rod. No QBs below these two hold first-round value. Note, neither should be grabbed in even the second-round, though, as the ADPs of both Luck and Rodgers are in the 3rd-round (at the earliest), which is awesome news.

Tier Two

3. Blake Bortles – Big upside, but some risk in this 3-5 range, which is where you’ll need to grab him moving forward.
4. Russell Wilson – Not a ton of risk given he is proven and has an ADP a round or two below the two top dogs above.
5. Cam Newton – Again, not a ton of risk here, and he too, like Wilson, is going a round or two below A-Rod and Luck.

Tier Three

6. Tom Brady – In dynasty, there is great value in grabbing one of Brady or Brees, as they can be elite for 1-2 more years. Even if just 1 year, it’s great value, as these guys are falling so far. Not every draft selection in dynasty has to be for the future. Veteran picks like Brady or Brees can win leagues if acquired at ADP values.
7. Drew Brees – Everything said about Brees above applies here.
8. Marcus Mariota – Great upside. If you can get him in the 6-8 range, the risk isn’t too bad.
9. Ben Roethlisberger – Injury risk, sure, but in the 8-10 range, the risk is still low given the potential.
10. Kirk Cousins – Here is the question mark of this top 10… is he going to be elite, or will he disappoint? It’s tough to say, but in the 8ish range, the risk is low enough to invest. If his value climbs into the 4-6 range, we’d have some concerns.
10. Derek Carr – He has top 4-6 appeal, so this is great value, and most rankings have him right here and no higher. By default, given the depth of the QB pool right now, the risk is minimized for sure.
12. Jameis Winston – Good value.

The Next Group

Tier Four

13. Tony Romo
14. Sam Bradford
15. Matt Ryan
16. Eli Manning
17. Brock Osweiler
18. Teddy Bridgewater
19. Ryan Tannehill
20. Tyrod Taylor

The Rest

Carson Palmer
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Andy Dalton
Joe Flacco
Colin Kaepernick
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jay Cutler
Blaine Gabbert
Alex Smith
Johnny Manziel
Nick Foles

Two Players to Buy-Low For 2016?

Jay Ajayi | RB Dolphins

With Lamar Miller likely playing elsewhere in 2016, the Dolphins could turn to Jay Ajayi. Now, it’s important to call him a sleeper, not a sure bet, so don’t treat him as such, meaning do not buy-high or draft him, or trade for him, at stud levels. He is a sleeper! The Dolphins believe in him and he looks like an every-down back. His YPG weren’t impressive on the year last year, but if you watched him run, he has the ability to grind it out between the tackles and he has a smoothness to his game. We truly believe he will thrive if the Dolphins both do not retain Miller and do not draft a big name rusher (or acquire one through free agency), both possible. Stay tuned on this one, but scooping this runner up on the cheap in dynasty/keeper leagues is advised.

Andrew Luck | QB Colts

It’s easy to want to avoid Luck in 2016, as he frustrated so many all year long in 2015. Not only did he play below mediocre for much of the year, he got hurt around mid-season and did not return. He failed many. That said, it’s important to remember that he threw for 4761 yards and 40TDs the year prior (adding 3TDs rushing), and he is easily capable of 4500/38+TDs during any given season. He is 2nd-round worthy, but luckily his ADP (in redraft) is in the 3rd- to 4th-round range, which is STEAL territory. In redraft, if he continues to go in the late 3rd- or 4th-round, he will arguably be one of the biggest steals of 2016 drafts. The same can be said of Aaron Rodgers. Even if his value rises back in the 3rd and locks in, that’s still great value, yes, even if you can grab guys like Bortles rounds later. A 40TD QB in the 3rd or 4th is crazy good value. In dynasty, see if you can get close to this value… if so, strike a trade!