Archive for sleepers

No. 8 on the Upside Board is…

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have just added #8 to the Board, check it out!
View #8 on the Upside Board

Fantasy Draft Prep: QBs

smitty staff

With 2016 fantasy football drafts around the corner, it’s time to breakdown all of the impact fantasy football players. We will start with the AFC QBs. The NFC will soon follow.

QBs (AFC) Coming This Week

AFC

BUF: Tyrod Taylor QB – He enters a very important year. Is he the real deal? His 3,035 yards and 20TDs/6INTs was rather impressive in his 14 games, and his 568 yards and 4TDs on the ground makes him a very sneaky low-end QB1 in all formats. If you draft him, have a back-up plan!

MIA: Ryan Tannehill QB – After four seasons, it’s rather clear what we have here in this QB. He is a 4,000/25-27TD passer. He has two amazing talents to throw to in Landry and Parker, so we could see him dance in the 28-32TD range during some seasons to come, but this is a low-end fantasy QB1 right here.

NE: Tom Brady QB – It’s hard to believe Brady has played 16 seasons. He should have a top 5QB season left in the tank, but that will be his ‘pace’ stat wise, as he will face a four game suspension to start the season. If you need a QB in any kind of existing league, Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid fill-in.

NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB – Fitz just inked his new deal, which pays him $12 million. It’s fully guaranteed and has more money in incentives, so this is the Jets’ starter, make no mistake about it. After an impressive 3,905/31TD season in 2016, he makes a fine QB2 in larger 2016 redraft leagues.

BAL: Joe Flacco QB – He could miss the entire preseason (as of July 27). This makes him a risky low-end QB1 in 2016, as he could be rusty and not have solid timing with his receivers come Week 1. With how deep the QB pool is in 2016, he should be avoided as a starter unless you’re in a larger league.

CIN: Andy Dalton QB – Fully healthy from his thumb injury, Dalton enters 2016 as a high-end QB2. The QB pool is just far too deep this year to start Dalton as a QB1, unless your league is huge.

CLE: Robert Griffin III QB – Equal parts bounce-back and risk, there is some appeal here entering 2016. He shouldn’t be anyone’s QB1, but in 2QB leagues, or as a solid back-up, RG3 at least has a shot to throw for 3,200 yards, 18-20TDs, while totaling 300-400/2-3TDs on the ground. He could just as easily bust, but that’s why no one should make him a fantasy starter out of the gate.

PIT: Ben Roethlisberger QB – This guy is always rock solid and makes for a fine QB5-7 in any format. His ADP is about the 6th-round, which feels about right.

HOU: Brock Osweiler QB – Os is totally unproven and doesn’t have amazing measurables. If you take his 8 played games last year, he would have totaled 3,934 passing yards, 20TDs and 12INTs. Os has enough talent to get DeAndre Hopkins the targets that he needs, which is great news, and he has a solid rusher in Lamar Miller. The talent surrounding him could have him totaling those same 2015 numbers (extrapolated out), which isn’t a bad season. He may have more than 12INTs, though.

IND: Andrew Luck QB – He is completely underrated entering 2016. I’ve seen some magazines and ‘sources’ out there that have this guy as the 4th or 5th QB entering 2016. Take advantage of his bad 2015 campaign. He has top 1-3QB written all over him and he is a monster steal at his current 5.01 ADP. There may not be many players with more upside given their ADP than Luck!

JAC: Blake Bortles QB – Everything said about Luck above can be said here, minus the bad campaign last year. Bortles had a great season last year, and Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns just lock in his top 4-6 fantasy QB status if you ask me. With an 8th-round ADP, he and Luck have some of the best draft value in 2016.

TEN: Marcus Mariota QB – He is expected to run more in 2016, which is great news, as his 252 rushing yards and 2TDs from last year could double to 400+ and 4-5. Mix that with what should be 3,800-4,000 passing yards and 27-30TDs, that’s a sneaky QB1 in 2016.

DEN: Mark Sanchez QB – Not fantasy relevant and may not start for long in 2016 (if he even makes it into the lineup for Week 1).

KC: Alex Smith QB – A fantasy QB2.

OAK: Derek Carr QB – Capable of top 5-10 fantasy QB numbers, but only costs 9th-round value. Amari Cooper could explode this year; these two will connect early and often!

SD: Philip Rivers QB – Always good for 4,300-4,500 yards, 28-30TDs, he remains a quiet fantasy QB1. He is a great QB to pair with a similar type talent, which makes for a good match-up situation (if that strategy plays to your strengths).

Russ’ 2016 eBook Released

Russ Bliss’ eBook Is Here!!!

russ bliss ebook - 2014 fantasy football starters

Russ Bliss’ 2016 eBook is below!

Updated: 7/30/16


Download PDF

 

 

 

 

Smitty’s 2016 Rankings Cheat Sheet

smitty staff

Here at STARTERS, the famous Draft Analyzer is key to helping you create custom Cheat Sheets for your draft. The tool factors in projections, previous year’s stats, trending, etc, so be sure to use it when getting ready for your draft. However, last year I created my own stand-alone set of Rankings, and while they might differ from the Draft Analyzer here and there, I think it’s important to take a bit of variation with you to your draft! So enjoy, this is my personal set of 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings. For Dynasty Rankings, check out Smitty’s Dynasty Content over at SleeperU.

Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

Updated: 8/6/16 (these rankings are only updated through Week 1)

QBs

1 Aaron Rodgers
2 Andrew Luck
3 Cam Newton
4 Blake Bortles
5 Drew Brees
6 Russell Wilson
7 Derek Carr
8 Carson Palmer
9 Ben Roethlisberger
10 Tom Brady
11 Eli Manning
12 Philip Rivers
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TEs

1 Rob Gronkowski
2 Greg Olsen
3 Delanie Walker
4 Jordan Reed
5 Travis Kelce
6 Tyler Eifert
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RBs

1 Todd Gurley
2 David Johnson
3 Devonta Freeman
4 Adrian Peterson
5 Ezekiel Elliott
6 Lamar Miller
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WRs

1 Julio Jones
2 Antonio Brown
3 DeAndre Hopkins
4 Odell Beckham
5 Amari Cooper
6 Allen Robinson
7 Dez Bryant
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Two Upside Board Predictions Just Added

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have already added the first two players to the list for the 2016 fantasy football season. Check them out now!
View Upside Board

What WRs are jumping out on the 2016 Draft Analyzer Rankings?

Allen Robinson | JAC

(ranked inside 2-3 for WRs)

Depending on your scoring settings, Allen Robinson is likely getting top 3WR love from the 2016 Draft Analyzer. Of course, don’t draft him that high, as his ADP is around 2.01 -2.03, which right around the 6th- to 7th-ranked WR in most drafts. Use ADPs to your advantage while realizing that the Draft Analyzer is seeing some overwhelmingly-positive data-driven things in Robinson heading into 2016.

More WRs Ranking High on the Draft Analyzer

Brandin Cooks – NO – He is currently ranking in inside the top 8-11 for WRs on the Draft Analyzer, depending on your entered league scoring. There is a lot to like about Cooks, and certainly use his third-round ADP to your advantage. He is roughly the 14th-16th ranked WR in most any draft, so be sure to draft him there, but understand that the Analyzer is calling for a big season out of the guy.

Jarvis Landry – MIA – He is definitely a breakout candidate, and the Analyzer is ranking him near the top 9-11 for WRs. Again, as said above, this is higher than his ADP, by about 5-7 WR spots, so use ADPs to your advantage and just know that the Analyzer is predicting big things out of Landry in 2016.

Allen Hurns – JAC – As with Landry and Cooks, Hurns is ranking in, according to the Draft Analyzer, near the top 10-13 for WRs in 2016. This is about 2-3 rounds higher than his ADP, which has him coming in around the 18th-21st ranked WR in an average draft. Expect big things, but draft accordingly and not too early.

Randall Cobb – GB – A forgotten man, Cobb should rebound in 2016, as will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cobb is right around the 15th-18th ranked WR in most any mock draft, but the Analyzer is calling for a top 10-12 fantasy season. Use this info to your advantage, but draft as low as you can, as the ADPs suggest you can.

Dynasty: AJ Green a good buy-low?

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Smitty is the owner of SleeperU.com, which now proudly powers STARTERS’ Dynasty Content.

Dynasty Player of the Week

Buy-Low: AJ Green

It’s actually head-scratching how undervalued AJ Green is right now in dynasty. His ADP in all formats, redraft and dynasty, has now entered the 2nd-round, which is awesome news if you’re crafty and looking to trade. Often times in dynasty leagues, fantasy owners think too far into the future. Green, turning 28 this July, is still capable of being a top 1-5 fantasy WR during any give season, and given WRs usually can play at an elite level through 32, he still has 3-4 years left as a player that can drop top 5ish fantasy wide receiver numbers. That’s a long time in dynasty, 3-4 years, yet so many focus on only obtaining players that are 23 and 24 years old. This approach often has fantasy owners rarely winning titles, as they are always chasing ‘the build’ of their team. One strategy I’ve used as of late, in leagues where I needed to shake things up, is to trade a top 1-3 ranked receiver, like an Odell Beckham, for an undervalued AJ Green, thus allowing me to ask for a nice upgrade elsewhere. It won’t fly now, but I was able to upgrade my 1.03 to the 1.01 using this so called ‘downgrade’ to AJ Green. Now I own Ezekiel Elliott because of that move. Again, that’s not a move anyone would do now, as the 1.01 has now become Elliott, but you get the point and you see how one can turn a so called ‘downgrade’ into something more. Believe in AJG, he still has tier one WR appeal for a handful of years!

Tight Ends Sleepers for 2016

Below you will find a list of 2016 Tight End Sleepers for 2016.

Zach Ertz (TE/PHI)

Chip Kelly held Zach Ertz back a ton in Philly. He did the same to Jordan Matthews. We should see more productive players this year in terms of both of those guys. Ertz has very good TD upside. His TE ADP nears the 10 range, so don’t reach much past that, as he isn’t a sure bet… he is just a nice bet at that 10ish range for TEs for 2016.

Coby Fleener (TE/NO)

His current ADP for tight ends is around the 7-10 range, and with Drew Brees now tossing him the rock, he should have a big season in New Orleans. We would say don’t grab him earlier than you have to, though, but 7-12 for TEs is a great spot. Back him up nicely, though, just in case the transition to NO isn’t a smooth one.

Other TE Sleepers

  • Dwayne Allen (TE/IND)
  • Eric Ebron (TE/DET)
  • Jimmy Graham (TE/SEA)
  • Jordan Cameron (TE/MIA)
  • Richard Rodgers (TE/GB)

Deeper QB Sleepers

Kirk Cousins (QB – WAS)

Kirk Cousins will likely be undervalued in most formats in 2016, as there are just so many quarterbacks to rank above him, like Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Even Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo might have more 2016 value than Cousins, to at least some. So, if you want a passer capable of top 5-10 fantasy QB upside, yet he will cost you almost 8-14 overall QB value, well, Cousins is your guy. The risk is super low given that kind of value, just make sure you back him up with another similar 10-15QB option.

Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)

Like Cousins, by default, 10 or so passers might get ranked above Mariota entering 2016 fantasy football drafts. Mariota has some maturing to do, and he could still be hit and miss in 2016, but he showed tons of promise last year as a rookie, where he threw for 2,818 yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs, while running for 252 yards two TDs. The additions of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, defenses will be kept honest, and in turn that will help Mariota hook up with Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham and Delanie Walker downfield. Don’t be surprised if Mariota totals over 30 TDs (passing and rushing) this upcoming season.

Other QB Sleepers

Derek Carr (QB – OAK)
Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
Robert Griffin III (QB – CLE)

Deep Sleepers: May

There are a ton of deep sleepers to target in 2016 fantasy football drafts, and this article will just touch on a few. We will provide more and more names as we near August, so stay tuned for future versions of this column.

Devontae Booker (RB/DEN)

CJ Anderson might have the starting job locked up in Denver, as he was signed to a huge off-season contract, but don’t sleep on Devontae Booker, a Devonta Freeman type rusher with a ton of determination. He has made it public that he plans to attack the starting gig, and he has the skill set to do it. Anderson isn’t the most secure RB1 in fantasy football, and his ADP is falling despite his huge contract and placement in that lineup. I think people fear that he isn’t for real, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that people aren’t still sleeping on Booker. They are. Take advantage and draft him as a stash type rusher.

Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI)

Ryan Mathews and aging Darren Sproles are the only thing standing in the way of Smallwood, a runner that could easily be one of the bigger rookie running back surprises in 2016. He may not develop, so it’s important not to reach too high to grab him, but his ADP is in the crazy-low range where he isn’t even showing up in the top 100 of redraft ADPs. He has monster upside with no risk.