Archive for sleepers

Tight Ends Sleepers for 2016

Below you will find a list of 2016 Tight End Sleepers for 2016.

Zach Ertz (TE/PHI)

Chip Kelly held Zach Ertz back a ton in Philly. He did the same to Jordan Matthews. We should see more productive players this year in terms of both of those guys. Ertz has very good TD upside. His TE ADP nears the 10 range, so don’t reach much past that, as he isn’t a sure bet… he is just a nice bet at that 10ish range for TEs for 2016.

Coby Fleener (TE/NO)

His current ADP for tight ends is around the 7-10 range, and with Drew Brees now tossing him the rock, he should have a big season in New Orleans. We would say don’t grab him earlier than you have to, though, but 7-12 for TEs is a great spot. Back him up nicely, though, just in case the transition to NO isn’t a smooth one.

Other TE Sleepers

  • Dwayne Allen (TE/IND)
  • Eric Ebron (TE/DET)
  • Jimmy Graham (TE/SEA)
  • Jordan Cameron (TE/MIA)
  • Richard Rodgers (TE/GB)

Deeper QB Sleepers

Kirk Cousins (QB – WAS)

Kirk Cousins will likely be undervalued in most formats in 2016, as there are just so many quarterbacks to rank above him, like Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Even Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo might have more 2016 value than Cousins, to at least some. So, if you want a passer capable of top 5-10 fantasy QB upside, yet he will cost you almost 8-14 overall QB value, well, Cousins is your guy. The risk is super low given that kind of value, just make sure you back him up with another similar 10-15QB option.

Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)

Like Cousins, by default, 10 or so passers might get ranked above Mariota entering 2016 fantasy football drafts. Mariota has some maturing to do, and he could still be hit and miss in 2016, but he showed tons of promise last year as a rookie, where he threw for 2,818 yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs, while running for 252 yards two TDs. The additions of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, defenses will be kept honest, and in turn that will help Mariota hook up with Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham and Delanie Walker downfield. Don’t be surprised if Mariota totals over 30 TDs (passing and rushing) this upcoming season.

Other QB Sleepers

Derek Carr (QB – OAK)
Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
Robert Griffin III (QB – CLE)

Deep Sleepers: May

There are a ton of deep sleepers to target in 2016 fantasy football drafts, and this article will just touch on a few. We will provide more and more names as we near August, so stay tuned for future versions of this column.

Devontae Booker (RB/DEN)

CJ Anderson might have the starting job locked up in Denver, as he was signed to a huge off-season contract, but don’t sleep on Devontae Booker, a Devonta Freeman type rusher with a ton of determination. He has made it public that he plans to attack the starting gig, and he has the skill set to do it. Anderson isn’t the most secure RB1 in fantasy football, and his ADP is falling despite his huge contract and placement in that lineup. I think people fear that he isn’t for real, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that people aren’t still sleeping on Booker. They are. Take advantage and draft him as a stash type rusher.

Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI)

Ryan Mathews and aging Darren Sproles are the only thing standing in the way of Smallwood, a runner that could easily be one of the bigger rookie running back surprises in 2016. He may not develop, so it’s important not to reach too high to grab him, but his ADP is in the crazy-low range where he isn’t even showing up in the top 100 of redraft ADPs. He has monster upside with no risk.

Where to rank Ezekiel Elliott amongst 2016 running backs?

Everyone knows that Ezekiel Elliott is the top-ranked rookie heading into any 2016 rookie-only fantasy football draft. He is the top dog, no question. But, how good can he be right away? Many expect top 4-8RB numbers in time, but can he be that good in just his first season? We say yes. It’s safe to assume, that if healthy, he is going to see the kind of workload in Dallas that could have him producing 1,000-1,200 rushing yards, 25-30 receptions for 300-400 yards and near double-digit touchdowns. It’s tough to expect that out of any rookie rusher, as they often times hit a rookie wall near Weeks 11-14. However, this offensive line in Dallas is elite, and the offense will be more well-rounded than last year, so much so that even if Tony Romo misses some time here or there, the rushing game will help keep defenses honest, something that couldn’t always be said last year. Don’t draft Elliott as a top 5-8RB in 2016, as his ADP is more in the middle-to-late second-round. If you draft him higher than you need to, you limit the upside and ceiling potential and you increase the risk (should he get hurt, or struggle early on).

2016 Rookie-Only Draft (post NFL Draft)

Below is a fresh 2016 Fantasy Football Rookie-Only Expert Draft. This is a real draft amongst ‘experts’ in the fantasy football industry, so it’s an interesting take on where to slot 2016 rookies. With the NFL Draft complete, it’s time to see where the 2016 rookies fall as you prepare for your rookie-only league drafts.

Round One

1.01 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB (R)
1.02 Doctson, Josh WAS WR (R)
1.03 Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R)
1.04 Coleman, Corey CLE WR (R)
1.05 Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R)
1.06 Henry, Derrick TEN RB (R)
1.07 Fuller, Will HOU WR (R)
1.08 Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB (R)
1.09 Thomas, Michael NOS WR (R)
1.10 Boyd, Tyler CIN WR (R)
1.11 Carroo, Leonte MIA WR (R)
1.12 Booker, Devontae DEN RB (R)

First-Round Observations: No shock seeign Ezekel Elliott go at the 1.01. In fact, there is no reason you should ever see another player ever drafted at the 1.01 in any upcoming rookie-only draft. I’m not suggesting that a player can’t come out of nowhere and be this year’s David Johnson, but ADPs suggest you can get a TON via trade if you don’t want Elliott for whatever reason. I think the first three receivers going right after Elliott is par for the course, as Doctson, Treadwell and Coleman have the most upside after Elliott, but keep an eye on Kenneth Dixon (1.08) and Devontae Booker (1.12). Derek Henry was a big name player heading into the 2016 NFL Draft, but his situation behind DeMarco Murray is not an attractive one heading into the next couple of years.

The Rest…

Round One

2.01 Prosise, C.J. SEA RB (R)
2.02 Howard, Jordan CHI RB (R)
2.03 Goff, Jared RAM QB (R)
2.04 Perkins, Paul NYG RB (R)
2.05 Marshall, Keith WAS RB (R)
2.06 Henry, Hunter SDC TE (R)
2.07 Thomas, Mike RAM WR (R)
2.08 Williams, Jonathan BUF RB (R)
2.09 Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR (R)
2.10 Hogan, Chris NEP WR
2.11 Hooper, Austin ATL TE (R)
2.12 Allen, Dwayne IND TE

Round One

3.01 Washington, DeAndre OAK RB (R)
3.02 Higbee, Tyler RAM TE (R)
3.03 Payton, Jordan CLE WR (R)
3.04 Drake, Kenyan MIA RB (R)
3.05 Miller, Braxton HOU WR (R)
3.06 Moore, Chris BAL WR (R)
3.07 Wentz, Carson PHI QB (R)
3.08 Cooper, Pharoh RAM WR (R)
3.09 Ervin, Tyler HOU RB (R)
3.10 Garrett, Keyarris CAR WR (R)
3.11 Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB (R)
3.12 Lynch, Paxton DEN QB (R)

Round One

4.01 Higgins, Rashard CLE WR (R)
4.02 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR
4.03 Ferguson, Josh IND RB (R)
4.04 Heuerman, Jeff DEN TE
4.05 Collins, Alex SEA RB (R)
4.06 Listenbee, Kolby BUF WR (R)
4.07 Janis, Jeff GBP WR
4.08 Quick, Brian RAM WR
4.09 Peake, Charone NYJ WR (R)
4.10 Miller, Zach CHI TE
4.11 Sharpe, Tajae TEN WR (R)
4.12 Tucker, Justin BAL PK

Bounce-Back Players for 2016

Below are a list of just a few bounce-back fantasy football candidates heading into the 2016 NFL fantasy football season. Have a few names you want to toss out? Comment below!

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has reportedly lost 15-18 pounds since the end of last year. Some are even suggesting that he will enter 2016 in the best shape of his life. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him, but if he can be had at RB2 value entering 2016, and currently that’s the case, he has bounce-back written all over him.

Jordy Nelson

Another Packer with bounce-back written all over him. Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit last year, as did the Packers, and one reason is that Rodgers lost Jordy. Jordy is always underrated, but coming off injury, he is more likely to get overlooked than ever. Buy-low, at least until his ADP climbs back into stud range, and it may. Once it does, then he is a tad risky and the appeal is somewhat lost.

Andrew Luck

Most expect a bounce-back, but given that he and Aaron Rodgers both struggled last year, and now with Brady again looking at a 4-game suspension, QBs might fall further than they should in 2016. Take advantage, as Luck (and Rodgers) both have top 10 overall value, it’s just that QBs are waited on in almost every veteran fantasy football draft. At 3rd- and 4th-round value, we say don’t wait, be the one to snag either QB.

Jamaal Charles

He should bounce-back from injury nicely, for at least one season. Don’t spend a top 5RB pick on him, but if you can get him near 2nd-round value, or particularly at 2nd-round value, strike!

DeMarco Murray

Risky, sure, especially with a new team (TEN); however, he is still top 5-10RB skilled, and TEN wanted him, which is a change from his situation in PHI last year. His ADP is in the 3rd/4th, so the risk is very low, whereas the reward is 1st-round possible.

Ranking the top 15 Dynasty TEs

Below are our Top 20 Dynasty Tight Ends for 2016. Feel a player is too high or too low? Comment below!

TEs 1-10

1. Rob Gronkowski – There just isn’t any debate at the top TE spot. As usual, he has first-round value.
2. Greg Olsen – Until he slows down, he has to be respected in the 2-3 range for TEs.
3. Jordan Reed – Always an injury risk, he must be considered a top 2-5 TE this year, and he will get drafted like one, so expect to pay that price and hold the risk that comes with Reed.
4. Travis Kelce – To 2/3 TE upside.
5. Tyler Eifert – Top 2/3 TE upside.
6. Delanie Walker – Always capable of getting hurt or disappointing, but huge upside, so this is a safe place to rank him. He definitely has top 2-4 upside.
7. Coby Fleener – This is boom or bust, so be careful where you take him this year. That said, on the boom side, if he gets fed the rock in New Orleans, and stays healthy, watch out!
8. Zach Ertz – Chip Kelly really held him back. He could have a nice little top 4-6TE season this year.
9. Gary Barnidge – Lots of talent, but offensive changes make him safer in this 8-10 range. Good upside here, though.
10. Eric Ebron – Should be counted on more with Calvin retired. Can he take that next step forward?

The Rest

Julius Thomas
Austin Seferian-jenkins
Jimmy Graham
Ladarius Green
Jason Witten
Antonio Gates
Charles Clay
Jordan Cameron
Martellus Bennett
Ben Watson
Crockett Gillmore
Kyle Rudolph
Zach Miller
Richard Rodgers
Maxx Williams (R)
Clive Walford (R)
Vernon Davis
Dwayne Allen
Owen Daniels
Will Tye
Jacob Tamme
Larry Donnell
Jesse James
Jared Cook

Ranking the top 20 Dynasty WRs

Below are our Top 20 Dynasty Wide Receivers for 2016. Feel a player is too high or too low? Comment below!

WRs 1-10

1. Antonio Brown – It’s hard to argue against him being the 1.01 overall.
2. Julio Jones – Like with Antonio Brown, a strong case can be made for Julio being the 1.01, especially in PPR.
3. Deandre Hopkins – He is as capable of both Julio and Antonio.
4. Odell Beckham Jr. – He has a big more risk than the three receivers above, but he has as much upside. He is a top 2-4 fantasy WR in any format.
5. Dez Bryant – Capable of being the top WR during any season, but also capable of getting hurt or disappointing. The risk has him falling somewhere between 4-6 for 2016 WRs, which is safe.
6. AJ Green – Good value for a guy fully capable of being a top 1-5 WR. Great value.
7. Allen Robinson – Sometimes WRs explode and then vanish, so there is some logic to playing it safe with ranking Allen too high. I think this is a very safe range to rank him.
8. Demaryius Thomas – Will he see enough targets in DEN in 2016?
9. Amari Cooper – Of all the WRs in this lower half of the top 10, this guy has the most ceiling.
10. Mike Evans – Both he and Cooper have high, high ceilings at 8-10WR rankings/values.

WRs 11-20

11. Sammy Watkins
12. Josh Gordon
13. Alshon Jeffery
14. Keenan Allen
15. Jarvis Landry
16. Jordan Matthews
17. Brandin Cooks
18. Emmanual Sanders
19. Randall Cobb
20. Brandon Marshall/Doug Balwin/Julian Edelman/TY Hilton/Jordy Nelson

Ranking the Top 20 Dynasty QBs

Who are the Top 25 Dynasty Quarterbacks right now?

Top Dogs by Tier

Tier One

1. Aaron Rodgers – Only the guy below him holds near the same value, especially in leagues that award 6 points per TD.
2. Andrew Luck – He had a bad 2015, but he is just as elite and long-term valuable as A-Rod. No QBs below these two hold first-round value. Note, neither should be grabbed in even the second-round, though, as the ADPs of both Luck and Rodgers are in the 3rd-round (at the earliest), which is awesome news.

Tier Two

3. Blake Bortles – Big upside, but some risk in this 3-5 range, which is where you’ll need to grab him moving forward.
4. Russell Wilson – Not a ton of risk given he is proven and has an ADP a round or two below the two top dogs above.
5. Cam Newton – Again, not a ton of risk here, and he too, like Wilson, is going a round or two below A-Rod and Luck.

Tier Three

6. Tom Brady – In dynasty, there is great value in grabbing one of Brady or Brees, as they can be elite for 1-2 more years. Even if just 1 year, it’s great value, as these guys are falling so far. Not every draft selection in dynasty has to be for the future. Veteran picks like Brady or Brees can win leagues if acquired at ADP values.
7. Drew Brees – Everything said about Brees above applies here.
8. Marcus Mariota – Great upside. If you can get him in the 6-8 range, the risk isn’t too bad.
9. Ben Roethlisberger – Injury risk, sure, but in the 8-10 range, the risk is still low given the potential.
10. Kirk Cousins – Here is the question mark of this top 10… is he going to be elite, or will he disappoint? It’s tough to say, but in the 8ish range, the risk is low enough to invest. If his value climbs into the 4-6 range, we’d have some concerns.
10. Derek Carr – He has top 4-6 appeal, so this is great value, and most rankings have him right here and no higher. By default, given the depth of the QB pool right now, the risk is minimized for sure.
12. Jameis Winston – Good value.

The Next Group

Tier Four

13. Tony Romo
14. Sam Bradford
15. Matt Ryan
16. Eli Manning
17. Brock Osweiler
18. Teddy Bridgewater
19. Ryan Tannehill
20. Tyrod Taylor

The Rest

Carson Palmer
Philip Rivers
Matthew Stafford
Andy Dalton
Joe Flacco
Colin Kaepernick
Robert Griffin III
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jay Cutler
Blaine Gabbert
Alex Smith
Johnny Manziel
Nick Foles

Two Players to Buy-Low For 2016?

Jay Ajayi | RB Dolphins

With Lamar Miller likely playing elsewhere in 2016, the Dolphins could turn to Jay Ajayi. Now, it’s important to call him a sleeper, not a sure bet, so don’t treat him as such, meaning do not buy-high or draft him, or trade for him, at stud levels. He is a sleeper! The Dolphins believe in him and he looks like an every-down back. His YPG weren’t impressive on the year last year, but if you watched him run, he has the ability to grind it out between the tackles and he has a smoothness to his game. We truly believe he will thrive if the Dolphins both do not retain Miller and do not draft a big name rusher (or acquire one through free agency), both possible. Stay tuned on this one, but scooping this runner up on the cheap in dynasty/keeper leagues is advised.

Andrew Luck | QB Colts

It’s easy to want to avoid Luck in 2016, as he frustrated so many all year long in 2015. Not only did he play below mediocre for much of the year, he got hurt around mid-season and did not return. He failed many. That said, it’s important to remember that he threw for 4761 yards and 40TDs the year prior (adding 3TDs rushing), and he is easily capable of 4500/38+TDs during any given season. He is 2nd-round worthy, but luckily his ADP (in redraft) is in the 3rd- to 4th-round range, which is STEAL territory. In redraft, if he continues to go in the late 3rd- or 4th-round, he will arguably be one of the biggest steals of 2016 drafts. The same can be said of Aaron Rodgers. Even if his value rises back in the 3rd and locks in, that’s still great value, yes, even if you can grab guys like Bortles rounds later. A 40TD QB in the 3rd or 4th is crazy good value. In dynasty, see if you can get close to this value… if so, strike a trade!