Archive for redraft

Is Ezekiel Elliott a top 5RB already?

Our Draft Analyzer already has Ezekiel Elliott ranked inside the top 5RBs for 2016 (depending on your entered scoring). Is this premature? Is there too much risk counting on the runner at top 5RB value?

I say he is worth top 5-10RB consideration, no question. I caution anyone to rank him ahead of the big three RBs, LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson, but after those big guns, there are a grip of RBs that warrant that 4th rank. Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, there are a handful of running backs worth ranking in that 4th spot, and Elliott has just as much 2016 upside as any of those players. Word out of Dallas is that the rookie could see 300 carries in 2016, and while that is a bit concerning for his dynasty value, as it could wear him down, it’s fantastic news for redraft leaguers who plan to own Zeke. He is in a potent offense behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, and while Tony Romo has had trouble staying healthy over the last couple of years, that Dallas passing game, led by Dez Bryant, will make stacking the box against Elliott extremely tough. Elliott, if healthy, should easily earn top 5-10RB numbers. He could bounce around even higher than that from time to time.

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Demaryius Thomas to decline in 2016?

If you own Demaryius Thomas in dynasty, it might be time to trade him. If you play in redraft, unless the price is right, it might be time to start avoiding him. DT use to be a second-round fantasy talent, and while it’s always possible he still cranks out that kind of production in 2016, he has a miserable QB situation in 2016 (Mark Sanchez, or overwhelmed rookie Paxton Lynch), he is 28 years old (turning 29 in December) and the team might plan to run more than ever in 2016. In dynasty, I wouldn’t suggest that anyone sell so low you are trading him in for a 6th- or 7th-round WR talent, but you might be able to get crafty and do a straight one-for-one swap for an underrated TY Hilton. Hilton is 26 and has a top 1-3 passer throwing him the football… this is the kind of ‘downgrade’ that seems feasible trade-wise, given the trade market values of both players, and it’s a great way to rebuild and plan for the future. And, in redraft, the two, Thomas and Hilton, have just about the exact ADP, so consider drafting a Hilton-type before you draft DT.

Note: The Draft Analyzer agrees with this doubting of DT, as it has the WR roughly ranked around 18-21 heading into 2016.

Other names to consider over Demaryius Thomas, regardless of position:

  • Jarvis Landry MIA
  • Jeremy Langford CHI RB
  • Andrew Luck IND QB
  • Aaron Rodgers GB QB

Smitty’s 2016 Rankings Cheat Sheet

smitty staff

Here at STARTERS, the famous Draft Analyzer is key to helping you create custom Cheat Sheets for your draft. The tool factors in projections, previous year’s stats, trending, etc, so be sure to use it when getting ready for your draft. However, last year I created my own stand-alone set of Rankings, and while they might differ from the Draft Analyzer here and there, I think it’s important to take a bit of variation with you to your draft! So enjoy, this is my personal set of 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings.

Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

Updated: 7/11/16

QBs

1 Aaron Rodgers GB
2 Andrew Luck IND
3 Blake Bortles JAC
4 Cam Newton CAR
5 Russell Wilson SEA
6 Drew Brees NO
7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT
8 Carson Palmer ARI
9 Tom Brady NE
10 Derek Carr OAK
11 Eli Manning NYG
12 Philip Rivers SD
13 Tony Romo DAL
14 Kirk Cousins WAS
15 Marcus Mariota TEN
16 Jameis Winston TB
17 Andy Dalton CIN
18 Tyrod Taylor BUF
19 Matt Ryan ATL
20 Matthew Stafford DET
21 Ryan Tannehill MIA
22 Robert Griffin CLE
23 Jay Cutler CHI
24 Joe Flacco BAL
25 Alex Smith KC
26 Ryan Fitzpatrick FA
27 Brock Osweiler HOU
28 Teddy Bridgewater MIN
29 Colin Kaepernick SF
30 Sam Bradford PHI
31 Geno Smith NYJ
32 Blaine Gabbert SF
33 Jared Goff LA
34 Paxton Lynch DEN
35 Mark Sanchez DEN
36 Nick Foles LA
37 Josh McCown CLE
38 Jimmy Garoppolo NE
39 Carson Wentz PHI

TEs

1 Rob Gronkowski NE
2 Jordan Reed WAS
3 Greg Olsen CAR
4 Travis Kelce KC
5 Delanie Walker TEN
6 Coby Fleener NO
7 Tyler Eifert CIN
8 Gary Barnidge CLE
9 Ladarius Green PIT
10 Julius Thomas JAC
11 Zach Ertz PHI
12 Antonio Gates SD
13 Eric Ebron DET
14 Dwayne Allen IND
15 Jimmy Graham SEA
16 Martellus Bennett NE
17 Zach Miller CHI
18 Jason Witten DAL
19 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
20 Jordan Cameron MIA
21 Charles Clay BUF
22 Jared Cook GB
23 Kyle Rudolph MIN
24 Clive Walford OAK
25 Will Tye NYG
26 Vance McDonald SF
27 Austin Hooper ATL
28 Richard Rodgers GB
29 Benjamin Watson BAL
30 Lance Kendricks LA
31 Cameron Brate TB
32 Jacob Tamme ATL
33 Hunter Henry SD
34 Larry Donnell NYG
35 Jace Amaro NYJ
36 Josh Hill NO
37 Maxx Williams BAL
38 Brent Celek PHI

RBs

1 Todd Gurley LA
2 Le’Veon Bell PIT
3 David Johnson ARI
4 Devonta Freeman ATL
5 Adrian Peterson MIN
6 Ezekiel Elliott DAL
7 Lamar Miller HOU
8 Jamaal Charles KC
9 Doug Martin TB
10 Jeremy Langford CHI
11 Matt Forte NYJ
12 Mark Ingram NO
13 LeSean McCoy BUF
14 C.J. Anderson DEN
15 Eddie Lacy GB
16 Carlos Hyde SF
17 DeMarco Murray TEN
18 Thomas Rawls SEA
19 Jay Ajayi MIA
20 Dion Lewis NE
21 Ryan Mathews PHI
22 Jeremy Hill CIN
23 Melvin Gordon SD
24 Matt Jones WAS
25 Ameer Abdullah DET
26 Giovani Bernard CIN
27 Latavius Murray OAK
28 Duke Johnson CLE
29 Josh Ferguson IND
30 Frank Gore IND
31 Arian Foster FA
32 Jonathan Stewart CAR
33 Danny Woodhead SD
34 Kenneth Dixon BAL
35 Chris Ivory JAC
36 T.J. Yeldon JAC
37 Karlos Williams BUF
38 Isaiah Crowell CLE
39 Charles Sims TB
40 Rashad Jennings NYG
41 Justin Forsett BAL
42 Derrick Henry TEN
43 LeGarrette Blount NE
44 Tevin Coleman ATL
45 Theo Riddick DET
46 C.J. Prosise SEA
47 Jordan Howard CHI
48 Javorius Allen BAL
49 DeAngelo Williams PIT
50 Bilal Powell NYJ
51 Shane Vereen NYG
52 Paul Perkins NYG
53 Darren McFadden DAL
54 Devontae Booker DEN
55 DeAndre Washington OAK
56 Chris Johnson ARI
57 James Starks GB
58 Chris Thompson WAS
59 Darren Sproles PHI
60 Kenyan Drake MIA
61 Tim Hightower NO
62 Charcandrick West KC
63 Ronnie Hillman DEN

WRs

1 Antonio Brown PIT
2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU
3 Julio Jones ATL
4 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
5 Dez Bryant DAL
6 Amari Cooper OAK
7 Allen Robinson JAC
8 A.J. Green CIN
9 Mike Evans TB
10 Alshon Jeffery CHI
11 Jarvis Landry MIA
12 Jordy Nelson GB
13 Demaryius Thomas DEN
14 T.Y. Hilton IND
15 Keenan Allen SD
16 Brandon Marshall NYJ
17 Brandin Cooks NO
18 Sammy Watkins BUF
19 Randall Cobb GB
20 Allen Hurns JAC
21 Jordan Matthews PHI
22 Kelvin Benjamin CAR
23 Jeremy Maclin KC
24 Julian Edelman NE
25 Golden Tate DET
26 Doug Baldwin SEA
27 Eric Decker NYJ
28 Michael Floyd ARI
29 Larry Fitzgerald ARI
30 Emmanuel Sanders DEN
31 John Brown ARI
32 Tyler Lockett SEA
33 Devante Parker MIA
34 Donte Moncrief IND
35 DeSean Jackson WAS
36 Michael Crabtree OAK
37 Marvin Jones DET
38 Kevin White CHI
39 Corey Coleman CLE
40 Willie Snead NO
41 Torrey Smith SF
42 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
43 Laquon Treadwell MIN
44 Sterling Shepard NYG
45 Markus Wheaton PIT
46 Vincent Jackson TB
47 Steve Smith BAL
48 Travis Benjamin SD
49 Stefon Diggs MIN
50 Tavon Austin LA
51 Kamar Aiken BAL
52 Michael Thomas NO
53 Josh Doctson WAS
54 Kendall Wright TEN
55 Mohamed Sanu ATL
56 Devin Funchess CAR
57 Phillip Dorsett IND
58 Breshad Perriman BAL
59 Josh Gordon CLE
60 Mike Wallace BAL
61 Terrance Williams DAL
62 Rishard Matthews TEN
63 Pierre Garcon WAS
64 Nelson Agholor PHI
65 Chris Hogan NE
66 Sammie Coates PIT
67 Jeff Janis GB

Analyzers powered by Dana/historical data!

For those of you that are relatively new to STARTERS, we wanted to take a quick second to introduce you to Dana, the man behind the data entry process that powers the famous STARTERS Analyzers.

dana-staff

Dana is a co-founder of STARTERS, so he’s been around from the start. He is a diehard fantasy football fan and been in the business since roughly 2004. Dana’s projections are just a piece of what powers the STARTERS Analyzers. While we don’t want to give away all of our secrets, the Analyzers are powerful, and they factor in all kinds of historical data, strength of schedules, injury concerns, and more.

As the weeks move on, we will be addressing certain players that the Analyzers have ranked really high and really low. So, look for write-ups on that topic, they will publish weekly as we knock through that list of outliers.

Two Upside Board Predictions Just Added

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have already added the first two players to the list for the 2016 fantasy football season. Check them out now!
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The 2016 Draft Analyzer and Cheat Sheets are ready!

ffs-draft-analyzer

It’s that time! Yep, the 2016 Draft Analyzer is ready, which means you can now start creating your custom Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets for all of your leagues!

Like every year, the Draft Analyzer identifies a lot of players that are likely to outperform expectations, as the tool is driven by data trending, projections, injury concerns, and more. We will be breaking down some of the high-rankings players each week, starting with the Wide Receivers. So, start creating those 2016 Cheat Sheets, and also read our first write-up on the high-ranking players that the Analyzer is calling big seasons for:

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Read: Draft Analyzer WRs That Rank High

What WRs are jumping out on the 2016 Draft Analyzer Rankings?

Allen Robinson | JAC

(ranked inside 2-3 for WRs)

Depending on your scoring settings, Allen Robinson is likely getting top 3WR love from the 2016 Draft Analyzer. Of course, don’t draft him that high, as his ADP is around 2.01 -2.03, which right around the 6th- to 7th-ranked WR in most drafts. Use ADPs to your advantage while realizing that the Draft Analyzer is seeing some overwhelmingly-positive data-driven things in Robinson heading into 2016.

More WRs Ranking High on the Draft Analyzer

Brandin Cooks – NO – He is currently ranking in inside the top 8-11 for WRs on the Draft Analyzer, depending on your entered league scoring. There is a lot to like about Cooks, and certainly use his third-round ADP to your advantage. He is roughly the 14th-16th ranked WR in most any draft, so be sure to draft him there, but understand that the Analyzer is calling for a big season out of the guy.

Jarvis Landry – MIA – He is definitely a breakout candidate, and the Analyzer is ranking him near the top 9-11 for WRs. Again, as said above, this is higher than his ADP, by about 5-7 WR spots, so use ADPs to your advantage and just know that the Analyzer is predicting big things out of Landry in 2016.

Allen Hurns – JAC – As with Landry and Cooks, Hurns is ranking in, according to the Draft Analyzer, near the top 10-13 for WRs in 2016. This is about 2-3 rounds higher than his ADP, which has him coming in around the 18th-21st ranked WR in an average draft. Expect big things, but draft accordingly and not too early.

Randall Cobb – GB – A forgotten man, Cobb should rebound in 2016, as will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cobb is right around the 15th-18th ranked WR in most any mock draft, but the Analyzer is calling for a top 10-12 fantasy season. Use this info to your advantage, but draft as low as you can, as the ADPs suggest you can.

Bust WRs for 2016?

Below are a few potential 2016 Fantasy Football Busts at WR.

Brandon Marshall NYJ WR

He’s 32 and has played 10 seasons. Sure, he could go through 33 as elite, it happens, but 32-33 is often the age of decline for WRs, so it’s tough to pay a 3rd-round price, which is his going ADP, in 2016 given the chance he declines at some point this year.

Kelvin Benjamin CAR WR

I like his future value, but without much proven on the field, it’s hard to justify his current 3rd-round ADP. If his value drops a round or more, we might like his value this year, but he seems risky as a third player on one’s team.

Julian Edelman NE WR

With Tom Brady serving a multi-game suspension, and with Edelman coming off foot surgery, there is reason to be concerned about drafting Edleman as high as his ADP is coming in at. His ADP is in the 3.10-4.02 area, and that’s way too high for a 30 year old wide receiver coming off injury and missing his QB for multiple games.

Bust RBs for 2016?

Below are a few potential 2016 Fantasy Football Busts at RB.

Eddie Lacy RB GB

With a middle second-round ADP, it’s time to pump the brakes on the Eddie Lacy comeback bus. He has nice appeal as a 4th-drafted player, and that’s where his ADP was prior to the news breaking about him being in great shape early on during the off-season. Well, that news triggered a huge climb in ADP value, and he now has more risk than appeal. Beware of drafting Lacy as your second player, dynasty or redraft.

Latavius Murray RB OAK

How does Latavius Murray still have 3rd-round ADP value heading into late June mocks? We admit, we liked him last year, there was a lot to like, but he kind of failed fantasy owners last year, and it’s sounding like rookie DeAndre Washington could get a chance if things go bad for Murray early on in 2016. And, even if Murray plays decent, it could be a RBBC all year. Don’t overlook Murray should his value tumble, he is quite gifted between the tackles, but third-round picks should be spent elsewhere in 2016.

Ryan Matthews RB PHI

With Wendell Smallwood in Philly, I think the oft-injured Ryan Matthews is a sell-high in existing leagues, and he’s a player to potentially avoid should you be looking at needing to take him at his 5th-round ADP. Take Smallwood only later on and have the real weapon at scrub pricing.

Jonathan Stewart RB CAR

This guy never stayed healthy when young and fresh, it’s hard to imagine him being worth his current 5th-round ADP. Pass on JStew at this cost in upcoming drafts. If his ADP falls, then we might start liking his value, but not in the 5th.

2016 ADP Rankings (Mid June)

Each month we compile an ADP average from some of the better ADP sources around the internet, and here is our mid June version. Our STARTERS team is hard at work getting the Draft Analyzer ready for 2016, so enjoy this while you wait, but also use this with the Draft Analyzer when you draft, as you want to know where people are drafting these players so that you don’t reach or miss out on acquiring them.

2016 ADP Data (June)

Date: 6/14/16

1 Antonio Brown WR
2 LeVeon Bell RB
3 Todd Gurley RB
4 Julio Jones WR
5 Odell Beckham Jr WR
6 DeAndre Hopkins WR
7 Adrian Peterson RB
8 David Johnson RB
9 Ezekiel Elliott RB
10 Rob Gronkowski TE
11 A.J. Green WR
12 Dez Bryant WR
13 Jamaal Charles RB
14 Lamar Miller RB
15 Allen Robinson WR
16 Devonta Freeman RB
17 Eddie Lacy RB
18 Alshon Jeffery WR
19 Mike Evans WR
20 Jordy Nelson WR
21 Amari Cooper WR
22 Doug Martin RB
23 Keenan Allen WR
24 Mark Ingram RB
25 Demaryius Thomas WR
26 Brandon Marshall WR
27 Matt Forte RB
28 Thomas Rawls RB
29 LeSean McCoy RB
30 Kelvin Benjamin WR
31 Brandin Cooks WR
32 Cam Newton QB
33 T.Y. Hilton WR
34 Aaron Rodgers QB
35 Sammy Watkins WR
36 Julian Edelman WR
37 CJ Anderson RB
38 Carlos Hyde RB
39 Jeremy Langford RB
40 DeMarco Murray RB
41 Jordan Reed TE
42 Jarvis Landry WR
43 Andrew Luck QB
44 Randall Cobb WR
45 Golden Tate WR
46 Matt Jones RB
47 Doug Baldwin WR
48 Jay Ajayi RB
49 Dion Lewis RB
50 Greg Olsen TE
51 Jonathan Stewart RB
52 Jeremy Maclin WR
53 Jeremy Hill RB
54 Ryan Mathews RB
55 Allen Hurns WR
56 Russell Wilson QB
57 Michael Floyd WR
58 Latavius Murray RB
59 Tyler Eifert TE
60 Ben Roethlisberger QB
61 Emmanuel Sanders WR
62 Larry Fitzgerald WR
63 Chris Ivory RB
64 Melvin Gordon RB
65 Travis Kelce TE
66 Eric Decker WR
67 Jordan Matthews WR
68 Tom Brady QB
69 Frank Gore RB
70 Ameer Abdullah RB
71 Drew Brees QB
72 Delanie Walker TE
73 DeVante Parker WR
74 Blake Bortles QB
75 Justin Forsett RB
76 Giovani Bernard RB
77 Coby Fleener TE
78 Duke Johnson RB
79 Kevin White WR
80 John Brown WR
81 Carson Palmer QB
82 Danny Woodhead RB
83 TJ Yeldon RB
84 Tyler Lockett WR
85 Donte Moncrief WR
86 Karlos Williams RB
87 Steve Smith WR
88 Ladarius Green TE
89 DeSean Jackson WR
90 Arian Foster RB
91 Gary Barnidge TE
92 Michael Crabtree WR
93 Philip Rivers QB
94 DeAngelo Williams RB
95 Rashad Jennings RB
96 Isaiah Crowell RB
97 Jimmy Graham TE
98 Dorial Green-Beckham WR
99 Denver Defense DEF
100 Markus Wheaton WR
101 Eli Manning QB
102 Tevin Coleman RB
103 Derek Carr QB
104 Travis Benjamin WR
105 Arizona Defense DEF
106 LeGarrette Blount RB
107 Marvin Jones WR
108 Julius Thomas TE
109 Stefon Diggs WR
110 Seattle Defense DEF
111 Laquon Treadwell WR
112 Tony Romo QB
113 Charcandrick West RB
114 Kirk Cousins QB
115 Charles Sims RB