Archive for drafts & mocks

ARTICLE: Update August 29th ADP Data

Below is ADP (Average Draft Positions lists out there) Data as of today, August 29th, 2014. This is actually an average of the averages, as we use multiple industry ADPs and average that data together (including our friends over at FFCalc). This data is critical info to have on draft day, as it tells you where players are getting drafted on average — You don’t want to reach on your sleepers, as the value and upside is often how late you can grab them.

Ovr
Rank
Name
Pos
Team
1 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
2 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
3 Jamaal Charles RB KC
4 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 Calvin Johnson WR DET
6 Eddie Lacy RB GB
7 Jimmy Graham TE NO
8 Peyton Manning QB DEN
9 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
10 Dez Bryant WR DAL
11 Montee Ball RB DEN
12 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
13 A.J. Green WR CIN
14 Julio Jones WR ATL
15 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
16 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
17 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
18 Drew Brees QB NO
19 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 Doug Martin RB TB
21 Jordy Nelson WR GB
22 Arian Foster RB HOU
23 Antonio Brown WR PIT
24 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
25 Alfred Morris RB WAS
26 Andre Ellington RB ARI
27 Zac Stacy RB STL
28 Julius Thomas TE DEN
29 Randall Cobb WR GB
30 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
31 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
32 Keenan Allen WR SD
33 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
34 C.J. Spiller RB BUF
35 Vincent Jackson WR TB
36 Reggie Bush RB DET
37 Toby Gerhart RB JAC
38 Andre Johnson WR HOU
39 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN
40 Victor Cruz WR NYG
41 Matthew Stafford QB DET
42 Roddy White WR ATL
43 Shane Vereen RB NE
44 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
45 Ryan Mathews RB SD
46 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
47 Michael Crabtree WR SF
48 Percy Harvin WR SEA
49 Michael Floyd WR ARI
50 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
51 Chris Johnson RB NYJ
52 Ben Tate RB CLE
53 Andrew Luck QB IND
54 Ray Rice RB BAL
55 Joique Bell RB DET
56 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
57 Frank Gore RB SF
58 Vernon Davis TE SF
59 Tom Brady QB NE
60 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
61 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
62 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
63 Torrey Smith WR BAL
64 Julian Edelman WR NE
65 Matt Ryan QB ATL
66 Nick Foles QB PHI
67 Trent Richardson RB IND
68 Maurice Jones-Drew RB OAK
69 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
70 Marques Colston WR NO
71 Wes Welker WR DEN
72 Jason Witten TE DAL
73 Pierre Thomas RB NO
74 Brandin Cooks WR NO
75 Mike Wallace WR MIA
76 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN
77 Lamar Miller RB MIA
78 Golden Tate WR DET
79 Jay Cutler QB CHI
80 Steven Jackson RB ATL
81 Darren Sproles RB PHI
82 Terrance Williams WR DAL
83 Reggie Wayne WR IND
84 Fred Jackson RB BUF
85 Jordan Reed TE WAS
86 Cam Newton QB CAR
87 Stevan Ridley RB NE
88 Seattle Defense DEF SEA
89 Kendall Wright WR TEN
90 Tony Romo QB DAL
91 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
92 Knowshon Moreno RB MIA
93 Carlos Hyde RB SF
94 Eric Decker WR NYJ
95 Dennis Pitta TE BAL
96 Bernard Pierce RB BAL
97 Greg Olsen TE CAR
98 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
99 Danny Woodhead RB SD
100 Zach Ertz TE PHI
101 Robert Griffin III QB WAS
102 Riley Cooper WR PHI
103 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
104 Mark Ingram RB NO
105 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
106 Rueben Randle WR NYG
107 Philip Rivers QB SD
108 Justin Hunter WR TEN
109 Mike Evans WR TB
110 San Francisco Defense DEF SF
111 Terrance West RB CLE
112 Dwayne Bowe WR KC
113 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
114 Russell Wilson QB SEA
115 Carolina Defense DEF CAR
116 Andre Williams RB NYG
117 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
118 Hakeem Nicks WR IND
119 Anquan Boldin WR SF
120 Denver Defense DEF DEN
121 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
122 Andy Dalton QB CIN
123 Steve Smith WR BAL
124 Darren McFadden RB OAK
125 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
126 Danny Amendola WR NE
127 New England Defense DEF NE
128 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
129 Markus Wheaton WR PIT
130 Khiry Robinson RB NO
131 St. Louis Defense DEF STL
132 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT
133 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
134 Jarrett Boykin WR GB
135 Ahmad Bradshaw RB IND
136 Kenny Stills WR NO
137 Ladarius Green TE SD
138 Carson Palmer QB ARI
139 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN
140 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
141 Cecil Shorts WR JAC
142 Christine Michael RB SEA
143 Kenny Britt WR STL
144 Tavon Austin WR STL
145 Shonn Greene RB TEN
146 Kansas City Defense DEF KC
147 Stephen Gostkowski PK NE
148 Antonio Gates TE SD
149 Eric Ebron TE DET

RADIO: Listen to Russ Bliss talk fantasy football on Wednesday night!

Take a listen to Russ Bliss’ fourth radio show of the 2014 fantasy football season! Russ has been doing fantasy radio for over 20 years with his famous “The Red Zone” program, which airs on NBCSports Radio (1060am). Smitty is slotted to join Russ almost every Tuesday night, and below is the fourth show of the year. Take a listen!

The Red Zone With Russ Bliss

Date: 8/27/14

Guest: Gary Davenport

Topics: IDP topics, handcuffs, and more.

Listen Now!

RADIO: Listen Russ Bliss and Smitty Talk Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Montee Ball and more.

Take a listen to Russ Bliss’ third radio show of the 2014 fantasy football season! Russ has been doing fantasy radio for over 20 years with his famous “The Red Zone” program, which airs on NBCSports Radio (1060am). Smitty is slotted to join Russ almost every Tuesday night, and below is the third show of the year. Take a listen!

The Red Zone With Russ Bliss

Date: 8/26/14

Guest: Smitty,

Topics: Tim Wright, Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Montee Ball, Tony Romo, Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, Marshawn Lynch, Dez Bryant, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and more

Listen Now!

RADIO: Listen Russ Bliss and Smitty Talk LeVeon Bell; Russ takes on all kinds of 2014 topics.

Take a listen to Russ Bliss’ second radio show of the 2014 fantasy football season! Russ has been doing fantasy radio for over 20 years with his famous “The Red Zone” program, which airs on NBCSports Radio (1060am). Smitty is slotted to join Russ almost every Tuesday night, and below is the second show of the year. Take a listen!

The Red Zone With Russ Bliss

Date: 8/20/14

Guest: Smitty,

Topics: Le’Veon Bell/LeGarrette Blount Arrest, & More

Listen Now!

RADIO: Listen to Russ Bliss and Smitty talk sleepers on 1060am (8-19-14)

Take a listen to Russ Bliss’ first radio show of the 2014 fantasy football season! Russ has been doing fantasy radio for over 20 years with his famous “The Red Zone” program, which airs on NBCSports Radio (1060am). Smitty is slotted to join Russ almost every Tuesday night, and below is the first show of the year. Take a listen!

The Red Zone With Russ Bliss

Date: 8/19/14

Guest: Smitty, Gary Davenport

Topics: Sleepers, Draft Strategies

Listen Now!

2014 ADP Data – As of August 16th 2014

Below is updated ADP (Average Draft Position) Data as of August 16th, 2014. It was compiled using FFCalc’s redraft ADP, along with a few other sources around the industry — So, it’s an average of the averages. Enjoy, and please comment below on any players that stand out (as overvalued or undervalued).

2014 ADP Data | As of 8/16/14

Ovr
Rank
Name
Pos
Team
1 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
2 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
4 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 Calvin Johnson WR DET
6 Eddie Lacy RB GB
7 Jimmy Graham TE NO
8 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
9 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
10 Peyton Manning QB DEN
11 Dez Bryant WR DAL
12 A.J. Green WR CIN
13 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
14 Montee Ball RB DEN
15 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
16 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
17 Julio Jones WR ATL
18 Drew Brees QB NO
19 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
21 Arian Foster RB HOU
22 Jordy Nelson WR GB
23 Alfred Morris RB WAS
24 Antonio Brown WR PIT
25 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
26 Doug Martin RB TB
27 Zac Stacy RB STL
28 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
29 Randall Cobb WR GB
30 Andre Ellington RB ARI
31 Julius Thomas TE DEN
32 Keenan Allen WR SD
33 Reggie Bush RB DET
34 C.J. Spiller RB BUF
35 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
36 Vincent Jackson WR TB
37 Toby Gerhart RB JAC
38 Victor Cruz WR NYG
39 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
40 Roddy White WR ATL
41 Ryan Mathews RB SD
42 Frank Gore RB SF
43 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
44 Wes Welker WR DEN
45 Matthew Stafford QB DET
46 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN
47 Andre Johnson WR HOU
48 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
49 Michael Crabtree WR SF
50 Shane Vereen RB NE
51 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
52 Ray Rice RB BAL
53 Andrew Luck QB IND
54 Michael Floyd WR ARI
55 Trent Richardson RB IND
56 Percy Harvin WR SEA
57 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
58 Vernon Davis TE SF
59 Chris Johnson RB NYJ
60 Joique Bell RB DET
61 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
62 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
63 Ben Tate RB CLE
64 Torrey Smith WR BAL
65 Tom Brady QB NE
66 Lamar Miller RB MIA
67 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
68 Julian Edelman WR NE
69 Matt Ryan QB ATL
70 Brandin Cooks WR NO
71 Marques Colston WR NO
72 Stevan Ridley RB NE
73 Jason Witten TE DAL
74 Mike Wallace WR MIA
75 Nick Foles QB PHI
76 Pierre Thomas RB NO
77 Maurice Jones-Drew RB OAK
78 Jordan Reed TE WAS
79 Robert Griffin III QB WAS
80 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
81 Steven Jackson RB ATL
82 Cam Newton QB CAR
83 Terrance Williams WR DAL
84 Reggie Wayne WR IND
85 Darren Sproles RB PHI
86 Golden Tate WR DET
87 Bernard Pierce RB BAL
88 Greg Olsen TE CAR
89 Kendall Wright WR TEN
90 Terrance West RB CLE
91 Seattle Defense DEF SEA
92 Eric Decker WR NYJ
93 Dennis Pitta TE BAL
94 Fred Jackson RB BUF
95 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
96 Danny Woodhead RB SD
97 Jay Cutler QB CHI
98 Carlos Hyde RB SF
99 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
100 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN
112 Rueben Randle WR NYG
102 Tony Romo QB DAL
103 Dwayne Bowe WR KC
104 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
105 Riley Cooper WR PHI
106 Andre Williams RB NYG
107 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
108 San Francisco Defense DEF SF
109 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
110 Philip Rivers QB SD
111 Tavon Austin WR STL
101 Zach Ertz TE PHI
131 Josh Gordon WR CLE
114 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
115 Darren McFadden RB OAK
121 Danny Amendola WR NE
117 Mike Evans WR TB
118 Khiry Robinson RB NO
119 Carolina Defense DEF CAR
127 Knowshon Moreno RB MIA
116 Hakeem Nicks WR IND
122 Anquan Boldin WR SF
123 Russell Wilson QB SEA
124 Denver Defense DEF DEN
125 Kenny Stills WR NO
126 Ladarius Green TE SD
142 Andy Dalton QB CIN
128 Christine Michael RB SEA
134 St. Louis Defense DEF STL
130 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
113 Jarrett Boykin WR GB
132 Mark Ingram RB NO
133 Cecil Shorts WR JAC
129 Kenny Britt WR STL
138 Ahmad Bradshaw RB IND
136 Marvin Jones WR CIN
137 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
138 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT
139 New England Defense DEF NE
140 Steve Smith WR BAL
141 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
120 Justin Hunter WR TEN
143 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
144 Johnny Manziel QB CLE
145 Eric Ebron TE DET
146 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
147 Carson Palmer QB ARI
148 Markus Wheaton WR PIT
149 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN
150 Matt Prater PK DEN
151 James White RB NE
152 Tre Mason RB STL
153 Charles Clay TE MIA
154 Kansas City Defense DEF KC
155 Greg Jennings WR MIN
156 Stephen Gostkowski PK NE
157 Eli Manning QB NYG
158 Antonio Gates TE SD
159 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN
160 Justin Tucker PK BAL
161 Shonn Greene RB TEN
162 Andre Brown RB HOU
163 James Starks RB GB
164 Heath Miller TE PIT
165 Lance Dunbar RB DAL
166 Knile Davis RB KC
167 Aaron Dobson WR NE
168 Miles Austin WR CLE
169 James Jones WR OAK
170 Houston Defense DEF HOU
171 Steven Hauschka PK SEA
172 Joe Flacco QB BAL
173 Marqise Lee WR JAC
174 Roy Helu RB WAS
175 Josh McCown QB TB
176 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA
177 Brian Hartline WR MIA
178 Brandon LaFell WR NE
179 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
180 Cleveland Defense DEF CLE
181 Mason Crosby PK GB
182 Dan Bailey PK DAL
183 Chicago Defense DEF CHI
184 Tampa Bay Defense DEF TB
185 New Orleans Defense DEF NO
186 Phil Dawson PK SF
187 Greg Zuerlein PK STL
188 Matt Bryant PK ATL
189 Blair Walsh PK MIN
190 Robbie Gould PK CHI
191 Adam Vinatieri PK IND

Analyzing the July ADP: 2014 Value Grabs

smitty-staff

Ok, so it’s the middle of July, which means that 2014 fantasy football drafts are around the corner. Are you ready? Do you know know where players are falling on average in recent fantasy football mock drafts? Knowing a player’s ADP (average draft position) is a critical aspect of fantasy football drafting, as you always want to maximize draft value with every pick that you make. Now, what does that mean? Here are two examples:

Not Maximizing Draft Value

An example of this would be drafting Marshawn Lynch in the 1.08-1.09 range. Keep in mind, I am not calling the selecting of Lynch at 1.08-1.09 a bad pick, it’s just not a pick that is going to give you tons of unexpected value. In fact, Lynch has to have a top 5ish fantasy running back season for him to earn you back your investment. While you won’t be able to draft underrated players at every selection, especially in the first round, this is an example of picking a player where he deserves to be selected. There is both nothing wrong with this pick, nor is there anything spectacular about it. It’s just a good predictable pick.

Maximizing Draft Value

An example of this would be to draft Aaron Rodgers at 3.01. Given that Rodgers could arguably lead all fantasy football players in scoring in 2014, there is a ton of room for over-performing with a 3.01 selection. Again, you can’t find value above and beyond at every turn, but in rounds 2-5 (not so much in round 1), there are handfuls of players that fit the bill.

Ok, so now that I’ve explained “Maximizing Draft Value”, it’s time to call out some “value grabs” heading into early 2014 fantasy football drafts. The ADP data below was provided by our friends over at fantasy football calculator:

2014 Fantasy Football ADP (as of 7/16/14)

1
1.02
LeSean McCoy
RB
PHI
2 1.02 Jamaal Charles RB KC
3 1.03 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
4 1.05 Matt Forte RB CHI
5 1.05 Calvin Johnson WR DET
6 1.06 Eddie Lacy RB GB
7 1.08 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
8 1.09 Jimmy Graham TE NO
9 1.09 Peyton Manning QB DEN
10 1.09 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
11 1.11 Dez Bryant WR DAL
12 1.12 Montee Ball RB DEN
13 2.01 Arian Foster RB HOU
14 2.02 A.J. Green WR CIN
15 2.03 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
16 2.04 Julio Jones WR ATL
17 2.05 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
18 2.05 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
19 2.07 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
20 2.08 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
21 2.09 Alfred Morris RB WAS
22 2.1 Drew Brees QB NO
23 2.11 Jordy Nelson WR GB
24 2.12 Doug Martin RB TB
25 3.01 Antonio Brown WR PIT
26 3.02 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
27 3.03 Zac Stacy RB STL
28 3.04 Randall Cobb WR GB
29 3.05 Julius Thomas TE DEN
30 3.06 Andre Ellington RB ARI
31 3.07 C.J. Spiller RB BUF
32 3.07 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
33 3.09 Reggie Bush RB DET
34 3.1 Vincent Jackson WR TB
35 3.11 Keenan Allen WR SD
36 4.01 Pierre Garcon WR WAS
37 4.01 Toby Gerhart RB JAC
38 4.03 Bishop Sankey RB TEN
39 4.03 Victor Cruz WR NYG
40 4.05 Ryan Mathews RB SD
41 4.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
42 4.06 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
43 4.07 Wes Welker WR DEN
44 4.07 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN
45 4.09 Percy Harvin WR SEA
46 4.11 Shane Vereen RB NE
47 4.11 Andre Johnson WR HOU
48 4.11 Frank Gore RB SF
49 4.12 Matthew Stafford QB DET
50 4.12 Michael Crabtree WR SF
51 5.02 Roddy White WR ATL
52 5.02 Chris Johnson RB NYJ
53 5.04 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
54 5.05 Trent Richardson RB IND
55 5.07 Andrew Luck QB IND
56 5.07 Ben Tate RB CLE
57 5.08 Michael Floyd WR ARI
58 5.09 Vernon Davis TE SF
59 5.09 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
60 5.1 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
61 5.11 Joique Bell RB DET
62 6.01 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI
63 6.01 Ray Rice RB BAL
64 6.04 Torrey Smith WR BAL
65 6.05 Stevan Ridley RB NE
66 6.06 Nick Foles QB PHI
67 6.06 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
68 6.07 Robert Griffin III QB WAS
69 6.08 Mike Wallace WR MIA
70 6.09 Steven Jackson RB ATL
71 6.1 Julian Edelman WR NE
72 6.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
73 6.11 Pierre Thomas RB NO
74 7.01 Tom Brady QB NE
75 7.02 Marques Colston WR NO
76 7.03 Lamar Miller RB MIA
77 7.05 Maurice Jones-Drew RB OAK
78 7.06 Terrance Williams WR DAL
79 7.06 Matt Ryan QB ATL
80 7.06 Golden Tate WR DET
81 7.07 Jordan Reed TE WAS
82 7.09 Cam Newton QB CAR
83 7.09 Darren Sproles RB PHI
84 7.11 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
85 7.12 Terrance West RB CLE
86 8.01 Kendall Wright WR TEN
87 8.01 Reggie Wayne WR IND
88 8.02 Greg Olsen TE CAR
89 8.03 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
90 8.05 Dennis Pitta TE BAL
91 8.05 Seattle Defense DEF SEA
92 8.05 Bernard Pierce RB BAL
93 8.05 Eric Decker WR NYJ
94 8.08 Tony Romo QB DAL
95 8.09 Darren McFadden RB OAK
96 8.1 Riley Cooper WR PHI
97 8.11 Fred Jackson RB BUF
98 8.12 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN
99 8.12 Brandin Cooks WR NO
100 9.02 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
101 9.03 Knowshon Moreno RB MIA
102 9.04 Khiry Robinson RB NO
103 9.04 Rueben Randle WR NYG
104 9.04 Jay Cutler QB CHI
105 9.05 Danny Woodhead RB SD
106 9.09 Mike Evans WR TB
107 9.09 Hakeem Nicks WR IND
108 9.09 San Francisco Defense DEF SF
109 9.09 Dwayne Bowe WR KC
110 9.1 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR
111 9.11 Tavon Austin WR STL
112 10.01 Philip Rivers QB SD
113 10.03 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
114 10.04 Cecil Shorts WR JAC
115 10.05 Zach Ertz TE PHI
116 10.06 Carolina Defense DEF CAR
117 10.06 Christine Michael RB SEA
118 10.08 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
119 10.08 Russell Wilson QB SEA
120 10.08 Danny Amendola WR NE
121 10.1 Kenny Stills WR NO
122 10.11 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
123 10.12 Denver Defense DEF DEN
124 11.01 Anquan Boldin WR SF
125 11.03 Eric Ebron TE DET
126 11.03 St. Louis Defense DEF STL
127 11.04 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
128 11.04 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT
129 11.05 Marvin Jones WR CIN
130 11.07 Carlos Hyde RB SF
131 11.08 Tre Mason RB STL
132 11.08 Ladarius Green TE SD
133 11.09 Andy Dalton QB CIN
134 11.1 New England Defense DEF NE
135 11.1 Jarrett Boykin WR GB
136 11.11 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
137 11.12 Chris Ivory RB NYJ
138 11.12 Aaron Dobson WR NE
139 12.01 Johnny Manziel QB CLE
140 12.04 David Wilson RB NYG
141 12.05 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
142 12.07 Martellus Bennett TE CHI
143 12.07 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
144 12.08 Steve Smith WR BAL
145 12.09 Cincinnati Defense DEF CIN
146 12.11 James Jones WR OAK
147 12.12 Matt Prater PK DEN
148 13.01 Josh McCown QB TB
149 13.01 Charles Clay TE MIA
150 13.02 Andre Brown RB HOU

Value Grabs

Round One

There never are a lot of over-performing players in the first-round, as you can only over-perform so much from a first-round draft slot. However, if trying to pin down a couple names, I’d say that both Montee Ball and Peyton Manning have the ability to lead their position in scoring, so given they both have ADPs near the tail-end of the first-round, there is some value if we have to muster some up in this first-round.

Rounds 2-3

2.01 – Arian Foster: Honestly, Foster falls a lot further than this in all the drafts I’ve participated in, but because he has top 5RB appeal, even a 2.01 slotting has some value written all over it. So, expect Foster to fall more in the 2.05-2.12 range in your upcoming draft, and that’s fantastic value. Yes, there are some injury concerns, but Foster only has 1,320 regular-season touches to his name, which is 635 less than Marshawn Lynch (1,955) has to his name, and 572 less than Matt Forte (1,892) has to his name.

2.02 – AJ Green: I’m not sure why a receiver that could potentially finish as the No. 1 overall receiver in 2014 sits at 2.02 — That’s quite a bargain, and this data has over 800 drafts averaged.

2.04 – Julio Jones: Everything just said about AJG above can be said here. Are there injury concerns? Sure, but Julio has as much upside and physical ability than any receiver in the league (if not more).

2.07 – Giovani Bernard: While it’s entirely possible the little guy finishes around this range overall come season’s end, he has a ceiling in the top 5-10RB range, so this is a screaming deal, especially in PPR.

2.08 – Aaron Rodgers: I think I already covered how awesome this value is (in paragraph one of this article); the dude can be the No. 1 overall scorer. I don’t care if QBs fall late, or if there is always good QB value later, anytime you can land a player at 2.08 that can lead all fantasy players in scoring, you’re looking at a monster-type steal.

3.06 – Andre Ellington: Some might even think that this ADP is too high for an unproven Arizona rusher, but the soon-to-be sophomore rusher pulled in 39 passes as a rookie! He is easily considered the starter in AZ heading into 2014, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he drops top 5-10RB numbers. This is a home run pick right here, and if he remains healthy, it’s a pick that won’t likely leave you burned, as he can earn 3.06-type value even if he doesn’t meet my lofty expectations.

3.07 – CJ Spiller: He still has top 10RB appeal, so the risk is low in the middle-to-late third!

Round 4-5

4.07 – Cordarrelle Patterson: There is very little risk right here, as CP can drop low-end WR2-type numbers on a disappointing season. His ceiling is easily top 6-12 for WRs in 2014 and beyond.

5.08 – Michael Floyd: The stud receiver could very well takeover as Arizona’s top option by late this year, or at least early next year. On his journey to that talent level, he should drop super-high fantasy WR2-type numbers.

5.11 – Joique Bell: The runner turns 28 before Week 1, so he is no spring chicken…. just keep that in mind in dynasty, although he has low mileage. For all you yearly-league players out there, this runner could very well crank out high-end fantasy RB2-type stats this upcoming season, which would make him a steal in hindsight when talking about 5.11-type ADP. If healthy, he feels like a lock for 50-60 receptions… I envision him running for 1,000 yards and 6TDs this year, as well… even if he doesn’t, he still earns 5.11-type value in PPR. If he meets my expectations, well, then he crushes 5.11 value!

We could go on and on, as there are handfuls of later-round grabs that could explode from their current ADPs (like Nick Foles in the 6th-round), but this should have you covered through round 5. For more on this topic, or any other, get on the forums!

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft In July (Redraft, PPR)

Below is a 2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (in July), and below each round you will find my commentary/take on that round. This mock draft took place on our forums, so it’s a great indicator of current/true player values. The scoring for this fantasy football mock draft was assumed to be PPR, and it was done with a ‘redraft’ (2014 only) frame of mind. Thanks to all who participated. Enjoy.

Round One
1.01 – LeSean McCoy RB
1.02 – Jamaal Charles RB
1.03 – Adrian Peterson RB
1.04 – Calvin Johnson WR
1.05 – Eddie Lacy RB
1.06 – Matt Forte RB
1.07 – AJ Green WR
1.08 – Demariyus Thomas WR
1.09 – Julio Jones WR
1.10 – Jimmy Graham TE
1.11 – Marshawn Lynch RB
1.12 – Dez Byrant WR

Smitty’s Take: There weren’t very many surprises in round one, and their usually aren’t. Sure, a case can be made for Peyton Manning being round one worthy, but it’s not surprising to see him fall to 2.01. LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson are spot on in my book, and I can’t argue a bit with 1.04-1.12 (aside from pushing Manning into that 1.09-1.12 range, which isn’t everyone’s cup of tea).

Round Two
2.01 – Peyton Manning QB
2.02 – Monte Ball RB
2.03 – Aaron Rodgers QB
2.04 – Rob Gronkowski TE
2.05 – Doug Martin RB
2.06 – Brandon Marshall WR
2.07 – Antonio Brown WR
2.08 – Randall Cobb WR
2.09 – Demarco Murray RB
2.10 – Arian Foster RB
2.11 – Leveon Bell RB
2.12 – Julius Thomas TE

Smitty’s Take: Ok, so this is where one draft will look completely different than another draft (even if that mock draft took place on the same exact forum 10 minutes later). I love the value of Montee Ball, even though his value has climbed higher than most expected (aside from us, as we predicted the climb). This is a redraft mock, but we’ve been pimping Ball since last season, and he and Nick Foles (and Christine Michael) have been our top “go get” players all off-season long. This was when Foles was still in most everyone’s bottom-half of their top ten-ranked passers, and this was before Ball started sniffing second-round value (he was even a 4th-round player on average back in February). In redraft, though, don’t shy away from making Ball your second-drafted player, as he is very likely to crank out top 1-5RB numbers in that extremely-potent Denver offense. I wouldn’t even shy away from grabbing him ahead of Lynch in round one. Crazy? Well, let’s talk come season’s end.

Aaron Rodgers probably seems high to some, and not high to others. Frankly, how high QBs go depends on your league and league trends, so anyone suggesting that Rodgers at 2.03 is too early, or too late, is obviously speaking based on trends that they see league-wide. His 2.03 slotting above is neither too early or too late, as he can easily earn top 15 overall value. Doug Martin has a touch more risk than upside at his 2.05 slotting above, but if you can handcuff him to Charles Sims, you can minimize most of that risk. But, if drafting at that spot, I would have let him slide to the 2.10-2.12 range, which is where I’m more comfortable snagging Martin in 2014; he has tons of talent, but he also has an injury label that he needs to shake, plus he has a potential sharing situation heading his way. Arian foster has awesome value heading into 2014, as he constantly falls in that late second-round range. He may go in the first-round in some leagues, as again, every league is different with players like this (faced injury the prior season and has some overworked concerns). He has top 5RB upside, so 2.10 is low-risk/high-reward in my opinion.

Round Three
3.01 – Giovani Bernard RB
3.02 – CJ Spiller RB
3.03 – Nick Foles QB
3.04 – Jordy Nelson WR
3.05 – Victor Cruz WR
3.06 – Drew Brees QB
3.07 – Keenan Allen WR
3.08 – Zac Stacy RB
3.09 – Bishop Stankey RB
3.10 – Cordarrelle Patterson WR
3.11 – Andre Johnson WR
3.12 – Pierre Garcon WR

Smitty’s Take: I love the value of Gio Bernard at 3.01, but I don’t think you will see him fall that far on average. I could be wrong, and I sure hope that I am wrong, as I’d love this value in all my real upcoming 2014 fantasy football drafts. Gio Bernard is fantasy RB1-capable, yet he landed at 3.01 above… that’s crazy-good value, and again, that’s why I think that this won’t happen on average (he will more often be a 2.04-2.08 range player). Cordarrelle Patterson is now creeping into the 3rd-round in a lot of early 2014 mock drafts… expect this trend to continue, possibly even in the upward direction. He can earn that value, though, he has WR1-type upside, I just wonder if that production is still a year away. It might not be, but it gets a bit risky when you’re talking 3rd-round vs. 4th-round is all (I like him a lot in the 4th). Keenan Allen is another player that is climbing mock draft boards as of late, and let me tell you, I see the guy producing borderline low-end fantasy WR1-type numbers this year. He often falls into the 4th-round outside of STARTERS/DraftCalc communities, so snag him in the 4th-round where you can, as he can crush that value! Nick Foles is another player that ranks and gets drafted higher in DraftCalc and FFStarters worlds, so know that he often falls to the 4th-round, or even the 5th-round… and if I consider the 3rd-round still a steal (in terms of what he can do by season’s end), you can imagine how big of a steal he is to me at 4th- and 5th-round value. Use ADP data to your advantage and don’t draft Foles in the 3rd-round if you don’t have to, but I think we’re about to see Foles drop a top 3 fantasy QB season (with appearances with the top 1-2 on lots of occasions).

Round Four
4.01 – Andre Ellington RB
4.02 – Alshon Jefferey WR
4.03 – Matthew Stafford QB
4.04 – Alfred Morris RB
4.05 – Michael Floyd WR
4.06 – Vincent Jackson WR
4.07 – Wes Welker WR
4.08 – Frank Gore RB
4.09 – Andrew Luck QB
4.10 – Kendall Wright WR
4.11 – Percy Harvin WR
4.12 – Shane Vereen RB

Smitty’s Take: Not a lot of surprises in terms of players falling into this round, but I will say that Andre Ellington is the only running back left that has top 5-10 fantasy running back upside. He has almost no risk as a 4th- to 5th-round pick, because he pulled in 39 receptions as a rookie, and 40-50 receptions feels like a given entering his first season as a starter. Ellington has HUGE, HUGE upside! I can’t wait to watch him breakout!

Just Missed The Cut

Now, a 4th-round argument can be made for any of the below players, especially Ben Tate (if handcuffed to Terrance West), Tom Brady, and Chris Johnson.

Larry Fitzgerald
Reggie Bush
Sammy Watkins
Ben Tate & Terrance West
Trent Richardson
Toby Gerhart
Chris Johnson
Rashad Jennings
Joique Bell
Cam Newton
Tom Brady
RG3
Ryan Mathews
Mike Evans
Vernon Davis
Ray Rice / Bernard Pierce
Jordan Cameron
Michael Crabtree
Eric Decker
Lamar Miller
Mike Wallace
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Hakeem Nicks
Julian Edelman