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Russ’ 2016 eBook Released

Russ Bliss’ eBook Is Here!!!

russ bliss ebook - 2014 fantasy football starters

Russ Bliss’ 2016 eBook is below!

Updated: 7/30/16


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ADP (Average Draft Positions) Update – July

As we do every month, we have compiled some ADP from some of the more trusted ADP sources on the web.

Undervalued

At a glance, you have to love the ADP values of: Devonta Freeman (17), Amari Cooper (22), Aaron Rodgers (32), Andrew Luck (48), Jeremy Langford (45), Blake Bortles (83)

Overvalued

You have to be cautious with players ranking too high, like: Eddie Lacy (18), Thomas Rawls (28), Kelvin Benjamin (31), Latavius Murray (38)

1 Antonio Brown WR PIT
2 Todd Gurley RB LA
4 Julio Jones WR ATL
3 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
5 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
6 David Johnson RB ARI
7 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
8 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
9 A.J. Green WR CIN
11 Lamar Miller RB HOU
12 Dez Bryant WR DAL
13 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
10 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
16 Allen Robinson WR JAC
14 Jamaal Charles RB KC
17 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
15 Jordy Nelson WR GB
18 Eddie Lacy RB GB
19 Keenan Allen WR SD
20 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
21 Mike Evans WR TB
22 Amari Cooper WR OAK
23 Doug Martin RB TB
25 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
24 Mark Ingram RB NO
26 Brandin Cooks WR NO
27 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
28 Thomas Rawls RB SEA
29 Cam Newton QB CAR
31 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
30 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
32 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
33 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
34 Matt Forte RB NYJ
36 CJ Anderson RB DEN
35 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
37 Randall Cobb WR GB
39 Carlos Hyde RB SF
40 Jarvis Landry WR MIA
41 Julian Edelman WR NE
42 DeMarco Murray RB TEN
43 Jordan Reed TE WAS
44 Golden Tate WR DET
45 Jeremy Langford RB CHI
48 Andrew Luck QB IND
46 Dion Lewis RB NE
47 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
38 Latavius Murray RB OAK
49 Matt Jones RB WAS
51 Russell Wilson QB SEA
50 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
53 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
52 Greg Olsen TE CAR
54 Michael Floyd WR ARI
55 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
57 Donte Moncrief WR IND
58 Allen Hurns WR JAC
56 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
59 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
60 Drew Brees QB NO
61 Jay Ajayi RB MIA
62 Eric Decker WR NYJ
65 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
64 Frank Gore RB IND
66 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
67 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
68 Tyler Eifert TE CIN
63 Chris Ivory RB JAC
69 Melvin Gordon RB SD
70 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
72 Travis Kelce TE KC
73 Duke Johnson RB CLE
74 DeVante Parker WR MIA
75 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
76 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT
77 John Brown WR ARI
78 Delanie Walker TE TEN
71 Tom Brady QB NE
79 Tyler Lockett WR SEA
80 Carson Palmer QB ARI
81 Justin Forsett RB BAL
82 Danny Woodhead RB SD
83 Blake Bortles QB JAC
84 Coby Fleener TE NO
85 Arian Foster RB HOU
86 Kevin White WR CHI
87 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
88 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
89 Michael Crabtree WR OAK
90 Ladarius Green TE PIT
91 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
92 Eli Manning QB NYG
93 Marvin Jones WR DET
94 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
95 Derrick Henry RB TEN
96 Gary Barnidge TE CLE
97 Sterling Shepard WR NYG
98 Philip Rivers QB SD
99 Charles Sims RB TB
100 Markus Wheaton WR PIT
101 Julius Thomas TE JAC
102 Denver Defense DEF DEN
103 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
104 Derek Carr QB OAK
105 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
106 Corey Coleman WR CLE
107 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
108 Steve Smith WR BAL
109 Torrey Smith WR SF

Is Ezekiel Elliott a top 5RB already?

Our Draft Analyzer already has Ezekiel Elliott ranked inside the top 5RBs for 2016 (depending on your entered scoring). Is this premature? Is there too much risk counting on the runner at top 5RB value?

I say he is worth top 5-10RB consideration, no question. I caution anyone to rank him ahead of the big three RBs, LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson, but after those big guns, there are a grip of RBs that warrant that 4th rank. Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, there are a handful of running backs worth ranking in that 4th spot, and Elliott has just as much 2016 upside as any of those players. Word out of Dallas is that the rookie could see 300 carries in 2016, and while that is a bit concerning for his dynasty value, as it could wear him down, it’s fantastic news for redraft leaguers who plan to own Zeke. He is in a potent offense behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, and while Tony Romo has had trouble staying healthy over the last couple of years, that Dallas passing game, led by Dez Bryant, will make stacking the box against Elliott extremely tough. Elliott, if healthy, should easily earn top 5-10RB numbers. He could bounce around even higher than that from time to time.

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Smitty’s 2016 Rankings Cheat Sheet

smitty staff

Here at STARTERS, the famous Draft Analyzer is key to helping you create custom Cheat Sheets for your draft. The tool factors in projections, previous year’s stats, trending, etc, so be sure to use it when getting ready for your draft. However, last year I created my own stand-alone set of Rankings, and while they might differ from the Draft Analyzer here and there, I think it’s important to take a bit of variation with you to your draft! So enjoy, this is my personal set of 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings.

Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

Updated: 7/11/16

QBs

1 Aaron Rodgers GB
2 Andrew Luck IND
3 Blake Bortles JAC
4 Cam Newton CAR
5 Russell Wilson SEA
6 Drew Brees NO
7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT
8 Carson Palmer ARI
9 Tom Brady NE
10 Derek Carr OAK
11 Eli Manning NYG
12 Philip Rivers SD
13 Tony Romo DAL
14 Kirk Cousins WAS
15 Marcus Mariota TEN
16 Jameis Winston TB
17 Andy Dalton CIN
18 Tyrod Taylor BUF
19 Matt Ryan ATL
20 Matthew Stafford DET
21 Ryan Tannehill MIA
22 Robert Griffin CLE
23 Jay Cutler CHI
24 Joe Flacco BAL
25 Alex Smith KC
26 Ryan Fitzpatrick FA
27 Brock Osweiler HOU
28 Teddy Bridgewater MIN
29 Colin Kaepernick SF
30 Sam Bradford PHI
31 Geno Smith NYJ
32 Blaine Gabbert SF
33 Jared Goff LA
34 Paxton Lynch DEN
35 Mark Sanchez DEN
36 Nick Foles LA
37 Josh McCown CLE
38 Jimmy Garoppolo NE
39 Carson Wentz PHI

TEs

1 Rob Gronkowski NE
2 Jordan Reed WAS
3 Greg Olsen CAR
4 Travis Kelce KC
5 Delanie Walker TEN
6 Coby Fleener NO
7 Tyler Eifert CIN
8 Gary Barnidge CLE
9 Ladarius Green PIT
10 Julius Thomas JAC
11 Zach Ertz PHI
12 Antonio Gates SD
13 Eric Ebron DET
14 Dwayne Allen IND
15 Jimmy Graham SEA
16 Martellus Bennett NE
17 Zach Miller CHI
18 Jason Witten DAL
19 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
20 Jordan Cameron MIA
21 Charles Clay BUF
22 Jared Cook GB
23 Kyle Rudolph MIN
24 Clive Walford OAK
25 Will Tye NYG
26 Vance McDonald SF
27 Austin Hooper ATL
28 Richard Rodgers GB
29 Benjamin Watson BAL
30 Lance Kendricks LA
31 Cameron Brate TB
32 Jacob Tamme ATL
33 Hunter Henry SD
34 Larry Donnell NYG
35 Jace Amaro NYJ
36 Josh Hill NO
37 Maxx Williams BAL
38 Brent Celek PHI

RBs

1 Todd Gurley LA
2 Le’Veon Bell PIT
3 David Johnson ARI
4 Devonta Freeman ATL
5 Adrian Peterson MIN
6 Ezekiel Elliott DAL
7 Lamar Miller HOU
8 Jamaal Charles KC
9 Doug Martin TB
10 Jeremy Langford CHI
11 Matt Forte NYJ
12 Mark Ingram NO
13 LeSean McCoy BUF
14 C.J. Anderson DEN
15 Eddie Lacy GB
16 Carlos Hyde SF
17 DeMarco Murray TEN
18 Thomas Rawls SEA
19 Jay Ajayi MIA
20 Dion Lewis NE
21 Ryan Mathews PHI
22 Jeremy Hill CIN
23 Melvin Gordon SD
24 Matt Jones WAS
25 Ameer Abdullah DET
26 Giovani Bernard CIN
27 Latavius Murray OAK
28 Duke Johnson CLE
29 Josh Ferguson IND
30 Frank Gore IND
31 Arian Foster FA
32 Jonathan Stewart CAR
33 Danny Woodhead SD
34 Kenneth Dixon BAL
35 Chris Ivory JAC
36 T.J. Yeldon JAC
37 Karlos Williams BUF
38 Isaiah Crowell CLE
39 Charles Sims TB
40 Rashad Jennings NYG
41 Justin Forsett BAL
42 Derrick Henry TEN
43 LeGarrette Blount NE
44 Tevin Coleman ATL
45 Theo Riddick DET
46 C.J. Prosise SEA
47 Jordan Howard CHI
48 Javorius Allen BAL
49 DeAngelo Williams PIT
50 Bilal Powell NYJ
51 Shane Vereen NYG
52 Paul Perkins NYG
53 Darren McFadden DAL
54 Devontae Booker DEN
55 DeAndre Washington OAK
56 Chris Johnson ARI
57 James Starks GB
58 Chris Thompson WAS
59 Darren Sproles PHI
60 Kenyan Drake MIA
61 Tim Hightower NO
62 Charcandrick West KC
63 Ronnie Hillman DEN

WRs

1 Antonio Brown PIT
2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU
3 Julio Jones ATL
4 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
5 Dez Bryant DAL
6 Amari Cooper OAK
7 Allen Robinson JAC
8 A.J. Green CIN
9 Mike Evans TB
10 Alshon Jeffery CHI
11 Jarvis Landry MIA
12 Jordy Nelson GB
13 Demaryius Thomas DEN
14 T.Y. Hilton IND
15 Keenan Allen SD
16 Brandon Marshall NYJ
17 Brandin Cooks NO
18 Sammy Watkins BUF
19 Randall Cobb GB
20 Allen Hurns JAC
21 Jordan Matthews PHI
22 Kelvin Benjamin CAR
23 Jeremy Maclin KC
24 Julian Edelman NE
25 Golden Tate DET
26 Doug Baldwin SEA
27 Eric Decker NYJ
28 Michael Floyd ARI
29 Larry Fitzgerald ARI
30 Emmanuel Sanders DEN
31 John Brown ARI
32 Tyler Lockett SEA
33 Devante Parker MIA
34 Donte Moncrief IND
35 DeSean Jackson WAS
36 Michael Crabtree OAK
37 Marvin Jones DET
38 Kevin White CHI
39 Corey Coleman CLE
40 Willie Snead NO
41 Torrey Smith SF
42 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
43 Laquon Treadwell MIN
44 Sterling Shepard NYG
45 Markus Wheaton PIT
46 Vincent Jackson TB
47 Steve Smith BAL
48 Travis Benjamin SD
49 Stefon Diggs MIN
50 Tavon Austin LA
51 Kamar Aiken BAL
52 Michael Thomas NO
53 Josh Doctson WAS
54 Kendall Wright TEN
55 Mohamed Sanu ATL
56 Devin Funchess CAR
57 Phillip Dorsett IND
58 Breshad Perriman BAL
59 Josh Gordon CLE
60 Mike Wallace BAL
61 Terrance Williams DAL
62 Rishard Matthews TEN
63 Pierre Garcon WAS
64 Nelson Agholor PHI
65 Chris Hogan NE
66 Sammie Coates PIT
67 Jeff Janis GB

Two Upside Board Predictions Just Added

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have already added the first two players to the list for the 2016 fantasy football season. Check them out now!
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What WRs are jumping out on the 2016 Draft Analyzer Rankings?

Allen Robinson | JAC

(ranked inside 2-3 for WRs)

Depending on your scoring settings, Allen Robinson is likely getting top 3WR love from the 2016 Draft Analyzer. Of course, don’t draft him that high, as his ADP is around 2.01 -2.03, which right around the 6th- to 7th-ranked WR in most drafts. Use ADPs to your advantage while realizing that the Draft Analyzer is seeing some overwhelmingly-positive data-driven things in Robinson heading into 2016.

More WRs Ranking High on the Draft Analyzer

Brandin Cooks – NO – He is currently ranking in inside the top 8-11 for WRs on the Draft Analyzer, depending on your entered league scoring. There is a lot to like about Cooks, and certainly use his third-round ADP to your advantage. He is roughly the 14th-16th ranked WR in most any draft, so be sure to draft him there, but understand that the Analyzer is calling for a big season out of the guy.

Jarvis Landry – MIA – He is definitely a breakout candidate, and the Analyzer is ranking him near the top 9-11 for WRs. Again, as said above, this is higher than his ADP, by about 5-7 WR spots, so use ADPs to your advantage and just know that the Analyzer is predicting big things out of Landry in 2016.

Allen Hurns – JAC – As with Landry and Cooks, Hurns is ranking in, according to the Draft Analyzer, near the top 10-13 for WRs in 2016. This is about 2-3 rounds higher than his ADP, which has him coming in around the 18th-21st ranked WR in an average draft. Expect big things, but draft accordingly and not too early.

Randall Cobb – GB – A forgotten man, Cobb should rebound in 2016, as will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cobb is right around the 15th-18th ranked WR in most any mock draft, but the Analyzer is calling for a top 10-12 fantasy season. Use this info to your advantage, but draft as low as you can, as the ADPs suggest you can.

Tight Ends Sleepers for 2016

Below you will find a list of 2016 Tight End Sleepers for 2016.

Zach Ertz (TE/PHI)

Chip Kelly held Zach Ertz back a ton in Philly. He did the same to Jordan Matthews. We should see more productive players this year in terms of both of those guys. Ertz has very good TD upside. His TE ADP nears the 10 range, so don’t reach much past that, as he isn’t a sure bet… he is just a nice bet at that 10ish range for TEs for 2016.

Coby Fleener (TE/NO)

His current ADP for tight ends is around the 7-10 range, and with Drew Brees now tossing him the rock, he should have a big season in New Orleans. We would say don’t grab him earlier than you have to, though, but 7-12 for TEs is a great spot. Back him up nicely, though, just in case the transition to NO isn’t a smooth one.

Other TE Sleepers

  • Dwayne Allen (TE/IND)
  • Eric Ebron (TE/DET)
  • Jimmy Graham (TE/SEA)
  • Jordan Cameron (TE/MIA)
  • Richard Rodgers (TE/GB)

Deep Sleepers: May

There are a ton of deep sleepers to target in 2016 fantasy football drafts, and this article will just touch on a few. We will provide more and more names as we near August, so stay tuned for future versions of this column.

Devontae Booker (RB/DEN)

CJ Anderson might have the starting job locked up in Denver, as he was signed to a huge off-season contract, but don’t sleep on Devontae Booker, a Devonta Freeman type rusher with a ton of determination. He has made it public that he plans to attack the starting gig, and he has the skill set to do it. Anderson isn’t the most secure RB1 in fantasy football, and his ADP is falling despite his huge contract and placement in that lineup. I think people fear that he isn’t for real, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that people aren’t still sleeping on Booker. They are. Take advantage and draft him as a stash type rusher.

Wendell Smallwood (RB/PHI)

Ryan Mathews and aging Darren Sproles are the only thing standing in the way of Smallwood, a runner that could easily be one of the bigger rookie running back surprises in 2016. He may not develop, so it’s important not to reach too high to grab him, but his ADP is in the crazy-low range where he isn’t even showing up in the top 100 of redraft ADPs. He has monster upside with no risk.

Top 10 Fantasy Football TEs for 2016!

Who are the Top 10 Fantasy Football Tight Ends for 2016? This list will change fast, and there are a number of players that ‘just missed the cut’, so know that those players are below (and many are worthy).

Top 10 TEs for 2016

1. Rob Gronkowski – There isn’t anything to argue here, as Gronk stands as the only fantasy football tight end even close to worthy of a first-round pick. If healthy, there is no reason to think Gronk won’t post at least 70-80 receptions fro 1,150-1,200 yards and 10-14TDs.

2. Greg Olsen – He is turning 31 here in March, but he just posted back-to-back 1,000-yard, 6TD seasons. He has never pulled in double-digit touchdowns during his nine seasons, so he doesn’t sniff Gronk’s No. 1 overall TE ranking, but he easily rivals anyone for the second spot. Others command consideration, like Jordan Reed, sure, but Olsen is a high-end TE1 in 2016 and maybe 2017… then we need to consider a slight decline.

3. Jordan Reed – Injuries are always a concern with Reed, as he has never played more than 14 games in his three NFL seasons (9, 11, 14 and in that order). Still, his 87 receptions for 952 and 11TDs last year is proof this kid is top 2-5 worthy for the long-term (especially if Kirk Cousins gets locked up by Washington).

4. Travis Kelce – Easily top 2-5TE upside. To be honest, he disappointed a bit in 2015, as I expected a bigger jump from his rookie season, but his first two years are pretty solid: 64/862/5TDs and 72/875/5TDs… I think that he can make that leap this year and could drop something along the lines of 70+ receptions for 900-950 yards and something close to 8-10TDs.

5. Gary Barnidge – What a breakout season last year, as the TE pulled in 79 receptions for 1,043 yards and 9TDs. He did that with a mess at the QB position, so that gives hope for consistency. However, keep in mind that he turns 31 in September, so his dynasty value has a touch of concern. Sell high in dynasty, draft as a top 3-6TE in redraft!

6. Tyler Eifert – Like Kelce, this guy could take a big step forward this year. He enters his fourth season and just dropped 52/615/13TDs in 2015. I think 8-10TDs is what one should count on, or hope for, in 2016, but any dip in TDs will be made up by receptions and yards, and I think 65 receptions for 750-800 yards sounds about right. Breakout!

7. Delanie Walker – The guy turns 32 this year, which is a bummer, because he never got things going (or had a passer that targeted him enough) until now. He dropped 94 receptions for 1,088 yards and 6TDs in 2016. In dynasty, I sell high, but in redraft, I think he drops 75-80 receptions for 900 or so yards and 5-6TDs.

8. Zach Ertz – Chip Kelly really slowed his growth. He was a breakout of Smitty’s two years ago, but Chip Kelly refused to use him (and use him down field). He showed signs of life near the end of last season with Kelly out the door… If any TE past the top 5-6 have top 3-5 upside, it’s Ertz.

9. Austin Seferian-jenkins – Big upside, but he has to stay healthy.

10. Julius Thomas – Tough to count on, but big talent.

Just missed the cut: Martellus Bennett, Jimmy Graham, Eric Ebron, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Charles Clay, Jordan Cameron, Ben Watson, Heath Miller

2016 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Below is a 2016 fantasy football mock draft based on a ppr format; it’s based on redraft. Things will change quickly as the off-season moves along, but this is as of early January 2016, so enjoy.

Round One

1.01 – todd gurley
1.02 – antonio brown
1.03 – julio jones
1.04 – deandre hopkins
1.05 – le’veon bell
1.06 – adrian peterson
1.07 – odell beckham jr.
1.08 – rob gronkowski
1.09 – devonta freeman
1.10 – dez bryant
1.11 – aj green
1.12 – demaryius thomas

Analysis: Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, LeVeon Bell and DeAndre Hopkins all deserve considerations for the 1.01 heading into 2016. You almost can’t go wrong with any of those names at the top spot, but even the next 3-4 names after that can be argued. This is a deep top 10 overall this upcoming season. The elite every-down rushers are not deep, however, as you are looking at Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, Devonta Freeman and LeVeon Bell (in no particular order) as the elite of the elite. Then, past those four, you have very capable rushers in Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy, and even Doug Martin, David Johnson, DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles, but that second group I just listed off is a tier below that top crew. So, the question is, is RB more valuable than ever because of this, or less? That will debated all off-season long!

Round Two

2.01 – matt forte
2.02 – lesean mccoy
2.03 – doug martin
2.04 – demarco murray
2.05 – jamaal charles
2.06 – david johnson
2.07 – aaron rodgers
2.08 – tom brady
2.09 – andrew luck
2.10 – drew brees
2.11 – amari cooper
2.12 – allen robinson

Analysis: This entire round is loaded with high-upside, but also lots of risk. This round is nowhere near as secure-looking as the first-round.

Round Three

3.01 – alshon jeffery
3.02 – mike evans
3.03 – russell wilson
3.04 – blake bortles
3.05 – cam newton
3.06 – keenan allen
3.07 – brandon marshall
3.08 – doug baldwin
3.09 – jeremy langford
3.10 – brandin cooks
3.11 – marshawn lynch
3.12 – eddie lacy

Analysis: If QBs like Luck, Brady, Brees or Rodgers fall into this round, they have great value, as they still have top 10 overall upside in fantasy (despite some of those passers struggling/getting hurt in 2015).

Round Four

4.01 – mark ingram
4.02 – jordan matthews
4.03 – randall cobb
4.04 – calvin johnson
4.05 – jarvis landry
4.06 – sammy watkins
4.07 – martavis bryant
4.08 – josh gordon
4.09 – jordy nelson
4.10 – thomas rawls
4.11 – emmanual sanders
4.12 – greg olsen

Analysis: Players like Thomas Rawls, Josh Gordon and Sammy Watkins all have big-time upside at this value, as they can all be top 10 at their position, yet you can buy them low-risk right here.

More Players Worth Considering: carlos hyde, lamar miller, allen hurns, latavius murray, jeremy hill, chris ivory, jordan reed, gary barnidge, carson palmer, ben roethlisberger, kirk cousins, derek carr, travis kelce, tyler eifert, delanie walker, arian foster, stefon diggs
michael floyd, ty hilton, tony romo, julius thomas, marcus mariota, jameis winston, larry fitzgerald, julian edelman, darren mcfadden, tj yeldon