Archive for breakouts

Radio Show: Russ Bliss’ Redzone August 24th

Below is Russ Bliss’ Red Zone fantasy football show on August 24th, 2016. Russ talks about sleepers, breakouts, fantasy football 2016.


Play Show – August 24th, 2016

Revisiting the 2016 Rookies

smitty staff

It’s the middle of August and a lot has changed over the last couple months, especially in terms of the 2016 rookies… it’s time to revisit the 2016 Rookie Class. Below I will rank the rookies, and provide commentary for certain players.

Note: These rankings are ranked with a dynasty/keeper frame of mind, but I provide commentary for both yearly leaguers and dynasty leaguers.

Top 10 Rookies

1. Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL – By far the 1.01 in 2016 in any rookie-only draft. He has top 6-10 overall value in all redraft leagues, which is super high for a rookie. He has that much appeal in DAL in 2016!
2. Corey Coleman WR CLE – This kid could be a top 10WR of the future. He is polished and NFL ready. He is my No. 2 overall in terms of rookies in dynasty.
2. Derrick Henry RB TEN – While I wonder how many years he can play at his highest level (at this size), he has fantastic upside for the next few years. DeMarco Murray is the starter in TEN, but if he gets hurt, Henry should thrive in 2016. Then I consider selling high at that point (if in dynasty).
3. Laquon Treadwell WR MIN – Lots of future appeal, but with Bridgewater tossing him the ball, I think Treadwell could be spotty and inconsistent in 2016, as he will naturally have ups and downs as a rookie, but he will also be limited when Bridgewater isn’t throwing a lot.
4. Kenneth Dixon RB BAL – This is my monster sleeper of this class, as I think he thrives if getting the carries. It’s a crowded backfield, though, so it’s tough to predict this situation. Just grab and stash in redraft, and get excited for the long-term.
5. Devontae Booker RB DEN – After Dixon, this is my next biggest sleeper rookie. He could be starting by mid-season, if not sooner. That’s not a lock, that’s a bold prediction, so draft/trade accordingly, don’t reach, as that would defeat the term ‘sleeper’ and all the upside that goes along with acquiring a sleeper.
6. Josh Doctson WR WAS – Nice long-term appeal and decent redraft appeal.
7. Sterling Shepard WR NYG – An exciting player that I want to get excited about, as everyone seems to be expecting so much out of this kid; however, if Odell Beckham is healthy, you have to wonder if many could be disappointed in 2016. He has nice long-term appeal, though.
8. Michael Thomas WR NO – Exciting receiver in a situation that could have him maturing fast.
9. Josh Ferguson RB IND – Nice sleeper potential in Indy.
10. Tyler Boyd WR CIN – Nice future and solid skill set.

The Rest

Will Fuller WR HOU
Wendell Smallwood RB PHI
DeAndre Washington RB OAK
Keith Marshall RB WAS
Alex Collins RB SEA
Pharoh Cooper WR LA
Leonte Carroo WR MIA
Paul Perkins RB NYG
C.J. Prosise RB SEA
Jordan Howard RB CHI
Kenyan Drake RB MIA
Jared Goff QB LA
Hunter Henry TE SD
Carson Wentz QB PHI
Jonathan Williams RB BUF
Tyler Ervin RB HOU
Braxton Miller WR HOU
Rashard Higgins WR CLE
Malcolm Mitchell WR NE
Paxton Lynch QB DEN

Dolphins Running Backs: The good, the Bad and the Decision

dana-staff

On paper, Miami looks to have an impressive stable of running backs that
are capable of handling the three down duties in Gase’s offense, as the
Head Coach emphasizes his point’ not allow the defense time to adjust’.
Talking how ‘he is comfortable exploiting the horizontal aspect of the
field more than the vertical..’ ‘Get the ball out quick’ ‘hurry up’ ‘short
and intermediate passes’. That sounds like his M.O., it also provides a hint
into what we might be able to expect during this season, a continuation of
a dink and dunk approach. Realizing there is a ‘time and a place to get
your QB sacked 60 a year,’ I believe there to be plenty of opportunities
coming out of the Dolphins back field in 2016.

The Good

Arian Foster and Jay Ajayi both fit a scheme, Kenyan Drake,
the 3rd Round draft pick, brings the same attributes, and the Wild card I
like is the 3rd year Free Agent signee, Damien Williams. This offensive
approach was able to squeeze respectable numbers out of the running back
position. The 2013 Denver Bronco’s Knowshon Moreno had his most productive
season (1,038 on 241 attempts and another 60 receptions for 548 with 13
total touchdowns). In 2014, C.J Anderson was next up and produced his best
season with over 1,100 yards from scrimmage, 34 receptions and 10 TD’s.
His time Chicago gave him Matt Forte, though Forte was not lights out in
15, he only played 13 games, yet tallied over 1000 yards from scrimmage, 44
receptions and 7 total TD’s.
.

The Bad

Jay Ajayi gets the nod to start over Arian Foster. Foster is 31 years old and his myriad
of injuries may best be suited for spot duty. Still, Ajayi will need to be
playing lights out from the get go if he is going to keep Foster at bay.
This is looking like a time share.

My Projection

Jay Ajayi 173 attempts, 4TDs, 734 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 168 receiving yards, 2TDs
Arian Foster 142 attempts, 3TDs, 601 rushing yards, 34 receptions, 194 receiving yards, 2TDs

Bold prediction; mid-season waiver wire Gold: Daimen Williams.

The decision

Ajayi’s current ADP is sitting at #79 and Foster’s #83. Then looking at the QB prospects around the 7th and
8th rounds has me thinking of adjusting my draft strategy. Load up on RB’s,
WR’s through six. Not worry about Ajayi or Foster. Draft at the back of
the first, get the turnaround at 7th and 8th rds. We could conceivable
find any two of these QB combos sitting there. Brady, Bortles, Palmer,
Rivers and Eli. Tab Daimen Williams with my last pick 17th round stash.

No. 8 on the Upside Board is…

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have just added #8 to the Board, check it out!
View #8 on the Upside Board

Fantasy Draft Prep: QBs

smitty staff

With 2016 fantasy football drafts around the corner, it’s time to breakdown all of the impact fantasy football players. We will start with the AFC QBs. The NFC will soon follow.

QBs (AFC) Coming This Week

AFC

BUF: Tyrod Taylor QB – He enters a very important year. Is he the real deal? His 3,035 yards and 20TDs/6INTs was rather impressive in his 14 games, and his 568 yards and 4TDs on the ground makes him a very sneaky low-end QB1 in all formats. If you draft him, have a back-up plan!

MIA: Ryan Tannehill QB – After four seasons, it’s rather clear what we have here in this QB. He is a 4,000/25-27TD passer. He has two amazing talents to throw to in Landry and Parker, so we could see him dance in the 28-32TD range during some seasons to come, but this is a low-end fantasy QB1 right here.

NE: Tom Brady QB – It’s hard to believe Brady has played 16 seasons. He should have a top 5QB season left in the tank, but that will be his ‘pace’ stat wise, as he will face a four game suspension to start the season. If you need a QB in any kind of existing league, Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid fill-in.

NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB – Fitz just inked his new deal, which pays him $12 million. It’s fully guaranteed and has more money in incentives, so this is the Jets’ starter, make no mistake about it. After an impressive 3,905/31TD season in 2016, he makes a fine QB2 in larger 2016 redraft leagues.

BAL: Joe Flacco QB – He could miss the entire preseason (as of July 27). This makes him a risky low-end QB1 in 2016, as he could be rusty and not have solid timing with his receivers come Week 1. With how deep the QB pool is in 2016, he should be avoided as a starter unless you’re in a larger league.

CIN: Andy Dalton QB – Fully healthy from his thumb injury, Dalton enters 2016 as a high-end QB2. The QB pool is just far too deep this year to start Dalton as a QB1, unless your league is huge.

CLE: Robert Griffin III QB – Equal parts bounce-back and risk, there is some appeal here entering 2016. He shouldn’t be anyone’s QB1, but in 2QB leagues, or as a solid back-up, RG3 at least has a shot to throw for 3,200 yards, 18-20TDs, while totaling 300-400/2-3TDs on the ground. He could just as easily bust, but that’s why no one should make him a fantasy starter out of the gate.

PIT: Ben Roethlisberger QB – This guy is always rock solid and makes for a fine QB5-7 in any format. His ADP is about the 6th-round, which feels about right.

HOU: Brock Osweiler QB – Os is totally unproven and doesn’t have amazing measurables. If you take his 8 played games last year, he would have totaled 3,934 passing yards, 20TDs and 12INTs. Os has enough talent to get DeAndre Hopkins the targets that he needs, which is great news, and he has a solid rusher in Lamar Miller. The talent surrounding him could have him totaling those same 2015 numbers (extrapolated out), which isn’t a bad season. He may have more than 12INTs, though.

IND: Andrew Luck QB – He is completely underrated entering 2016. I’ve seen some magazines and ‘sources’ out there that have this guy as the 4th or 5th QB entering 2016. Take advantage of his bad 2015 campaign. He has top 1-3QB written all over him and he is a monster steal at his current 5.01 ADP. There may not be many players with more upside given their ADP than Luck!

JAC: Blake Bortles QB – Everything said about Luck above can be said here, minus the bad campaign last year. Bortles had a great season last year, and Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns just lock in his top 4-6 fantasy QB status if you ask me. With an 8th-round ADP, he and Luck have some of the best draft value in 2016.

TEN: Marcus Mariota QB – He is expected to run more in 2016, which is great news, as his 252 rushing yards and 2TDs from last year could double to 400+ and 4-5. Mix that with what should be 3,800-4,000 passing yards and 27-30TDs, that’s a sneaky QB1 in 2016.

DEN: Mark Sanchez QB – Not fantasy relevant and may not start for long in 2016 (if he even makes it into the lineup for Week 1).

KC: Alex Smith QB – A fantasy QB2.

OAK: Derek Carr QB – Capable of top 5-10 fantasy QB numbers, but only costs 9th-round value. Amari Cooper could explode this year; these two will connect early and often!

SD: Philip Rivers QB – Always good for 4,300-4,500 yards, 28-30TDs, he remains a quiet fantasy QB1. He is a great QB to pair with a similar type talent, which makes for a good match-up situation (if that strategy plays to your strengths).

Ravens Wide Receivers: One man’’s time, another man’s glory.

dana-staff

Ravens Wide Receivers: One man’’s time, another man’s glory.

Steve Smith Sr.: What can we say about Steve Smith Sr.? Thirty-seven years young, he has had a notable and illustrious NFL career. Steve performed his duties admirably year in and year out. Steve, though we know this is not how you deserve to end a career, you are making the right decision, your charisma and zeal will be greatly missed.

Breshard Perriman: Lowered expectations. As the fantasy world anxiously awaited the arrival of the Ravens 2015 1st round pick, a lingering knee aliment derailed his rookie campaign, and as we enter 2016, he misses more work to begin his sophomore season. Perriman has the talent and athleticism to be an impact player, he just needs to get on the field healthy.
Projections: 30 receptions 412 yards 1TD

Mike Wallace has not yet found his niche, another talented pass-catcher, that if ever he wanted to put it all together on and off the field, this will be the place to do it. There will be opportunities in Baltimore for Wallace to either squander or to take advantage of; My advice to Wallace; Stick’em on your gloves.
Projections: 72 receptions 986 yards 4 TD’s

Kamar Aiken is the Ravens unheralded pass catchers, an undrafted rookie free-agent that bounced from practice squads in Chicago and New England finally catching on with Baltimore. Aiken now has 32 games under his belt in Baltimore entering his fifth season Kamar is another receiver that has found himself in a really good situation that will present opportunities to produce numbers.
Projections: 84 receptions 1029 yards 5 TD’s

Chris Moore: the 5th rd selection was getting some good first team reps with Steve Smith, Perriman and Wallace on the sidelines nursing injuries. In that fleeting moment I saw deep sleeper, but Moore after three days now finds him in a walking boot along side of the others. – No fantasy impact here.

Chuck Jacobs has resigned with the Ravens, add another unheralded WR that may pick up some slack with all the ailing pass-catchers the Ravens have sitting. When I start seeing names like this is when I start looking towards the…

Tight-Ends in this offense have no fantasy relevance at this point.

Russ’ 2016 eBook Released

Russ Bliss’ eBook Is Here!!!

russ bliss ebook - 2014 fantasy football starters

Russ Bliss’ 2016 eBook is below!

Updated: 7/30/16


Download PDF

 

 

 

 

ADP (Average Draft Positions) Update – July

As we do every month, we have compiled some ADP from some of the more trusted ADP sources on the web.

Undervalued

At a glance, you have to love the ADP values of: Devonta Freeman (17), Amari Cooper (22), Aaron Rodgers (32), Andrew Luck (48), Jeremy Langford (45), Blake Bortles (83)

Overvalued

You have to be cautious with players ranking too high, like: Eddie Lacy (18), Thomas Rawls (28), Kelvin Benjamin (31), Latavius Murray (38)

1 Antonio Brown WR PIT
2 Todd Gurley RB LA
4 Julio Jones WR ATL
3 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
5 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
6 David Johnson RB ARI
7 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
8 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
9 A.J. Green WR CIN
11 Lamar Miller RB HOU
12 Dez Bryant WR DAL
13 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
10 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
16 Allen Robinson WR JAC
14 Jamaal Charles RB KC
17 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
15 Jordy Nelson WR GB
18 Eddie Lacy RB GB
19 Keenan Allen WR SD
20 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
21 Mike Evans WR TB
22 Amari Cooper WR OAK
23 Doug Martin RB TB
25 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
24 Mark Ingram RB NO
26 Brandin Cooks WR NO
27 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
28 Thomas Rawls RB SEA
29 Cam Newton QB CAR
31 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
30 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
32 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
33 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
34 Matt Forte RB NYJ
36 CJ Anderson RB DEN
35 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
37 Randall Cobb WR GB
39 Carlos Hyde RB SF
40 Jarvis Landry WR MIA
41 Julian Edelman WR NE
42 DeMarco Murray RB TEN
43 Jordan Reed TE WAS
44 Golden Tate WR DET
45 Jeremy Langford RB CHI
48 Andrew Luck QB IND
46 Dion Lewis RB NE
47 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
38 Latavius Murray RB OAK
49 Matt Jones RB WAS
51 Russell Wilson QB SEA
50 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
53 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
52 Greg Olsen TE CAR
54 Michael Floyd WR ARI
55 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
57 Donte Moncrief WR IND
58 Allen Hurns WR JAC
56 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
59 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
60 Drew Brees QB NO
61 Jay Ajayi RB MIA
62 Eric Decker WR NYJ
65 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
64 Frank Gore RB IND
66 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
67 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
68 Tyler Eifert TE CIN
63 Chris Ivory RB JAC
69 Melvin Gordon RB SD
70 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
72 Travis Kelce TE KC
73 Duke Johnson RB CLE
74 DeVante Parker WR MIA
75 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
76 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT
77 John Brown WR ARI
78 Delanie Walker TE TEN
71 Tom Brady QB NE
79 Tyler Lockett WR SEA
80 Carson Palmer QB ARI
81 Justin Forsett RB BAL
82 Danny Woodhead RB SD
83 Blake Bortles QB JAC
84 Coby Fleener TE NO
85 Arian Foster RB HOU
86 Kevin White WR CHI
87 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
88 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
89 Michael Crabtree WR OAK
90 Ladarius Green TE PIT
91 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
92 Eli Manning QB NYG
93 Marvin Jones WR DET
94 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
95 Derrick Henry RB TEN
96 Gary Barnidge TE CLE
97 Sterling Shepard WR NYG
98 Philip Rivers QB SD
99 Charles Sims RB TB
100 Markus Wheaton WR PIT
101 Julius Thomas TE JAC
102 Denver Defense DEF DEN
103 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
104 Derek Carr QB OAK
105 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
106 Corey Coleman WR CLE
107 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
108 Steve Smith WR BAL
109 Torrey Smith WR SF

Is Ezekiel Elliott a top 5RB already?

Our Draft Analyzer already has Ezekiel Elliott ranked inside the top 5RBs for 2016 (depending on your entered scoring). Is this premature? Is there too much risk counting on the runner at top 5RB value?

I say he is worth top 5-10RB consideration, no question. I caution anyone to rank him ahead of the big three RBs, LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson, but after those big guns, there are a grip of RBs that warrant that 4th rank. Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, there are a handful of running backs worth ranking in that 4th spot, and Elliott has just as much 2016 upside as any of those players. Word out of Dallas is that the rookie could see 300 carries in 2016, and while that is a bit concerning for his dynasty value, as it could wear him down, it’s fantastic news for redraft leaguers who plan to own Zeke. He is in a potent offense behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, and while Tony Romo has had trouble staying healthy over the last couple of years, that Dallas passing game, led by Dez Bryant, will make stacking the box against Elliott extremely tough. Elliott, if healthy, should easily earn top 5-10RB numbers. He could bounce around even higher than that from time to time.

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Smitty’s 2016 Rankings Cheat Sheet

smitty staff

Here at STARTERS, the famous Draft Analyzer is key to helping you create custom Cheat Sheets for your draft. The tool factors in projections, previous year’s stats, trending, etc, so be sure to use it when getting ready for your draft. However, last year I created my own stand-alone set of Rankings, and while they might differ from the Draft Analyzer here and there, I think it’s important to take a bit of variation with you to your draft! So enjoy, this is my personal set of 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings. For Dynasty Rankings, check out Smitty’s Dynasty Content over at SleeperU.

Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

Updated: 8/6/16 (these rankings are only updated through Week 1)

QBs

1 Aaron Rodgers
2 Andrew Luck
3 Cam Newton
4 Blake Bortles
5 Drew Brees
6 Russell Wilson
7 Derek Carr
8 Carson Palmer
9 Ben Roethlisberger
10 Tom Brady
11 Eli Manning
12 Philip Rivers
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TEs

1 Rob Gronkowski
2 Greg Olsen
3 Delanie Walker
4 Jordan Reed
5 Travis Kelce
6 Tyler Eifert
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RBs

1 Todd Gurley
2 David Johnson
3 Devonta Freeman
4 Adrian Peterson
5 Ezekiel Elliott
6 Lamar Miller
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WRs

1 Julio Jones
2 Antonio Brown
3 DeAndre Hopkins
4 Odell Beckham
5 Amari Cooper
6 Allen Robinson
7 Dez Bryant
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