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Updated 2016 ADP (End of May Edition)

It’s important to constantly look at updated ADP Data, and we will have updates in both June and July for this. Here is the final May Redraft edition of 2016 ADP Data for the 2016 fantasy football season.

ADP Data 2016

  1. Antonio Brown WR PIT
  2. Todd Gurley RB LA
  3. LeVeon Bell RB PIT
  4. Julio Jones WR ATL
  5. Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
  6. Adrian Peterson RB MIN
  7. David Johnson RB ARI
  8. DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
  9. Rob Gronkowski TE NE
  10. Dez Bryant WR DAL
  11. Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
  12. Allen Robinson WR JAC
  13. Jamaal Charles RB KC
  14. A.J. Green WR CIN
  15. Devonta Freeman RB ATL
  16. Jordy Nelson WR GB
  17. Lamar Miller RB HOU
  18. Eddie Lacy RB GB
  19. Thomas Rawls RB SEA
  20. Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
  21. Amari Cooper WR OAK
  22. Doug Martin RB TB
  23. Mike Evans WR TB
  24. Mark Ingram RB NO
  25. Keenan Allen WR SD
  26. Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
  27. LeSean McCoy RB BUF
  28. Matt Forte RB NYJ
  29. Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
  30. Sammy Watkins WR BUF
  31. Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
  32. Brandin Cooks WR NO
  33. Julian Edelman WR NE
  34. Jeremy Langford RB CHI
  35. Aaron Rodgers QB GB
  36. Cam Newton QB CAR
  37. CJ Anderson RB DEN
  38. T.Y. Hilton WR IND
  39. Jordan Reed TE WAS
  40. DeMarco Murray RB TEN
  41. Jarvis Landry WR MIA
  42. Andrew Luck QB IND
  43. Carlos Hyde RB SF
  44. Randall Cobb WR GB
  45. Matt Jones RB WAS
  46. Golden Tate WR DET
  47. Doug Baldwin WR SEA
  48. Tyler Eifert TE CIN
  49. Dion Lewis RB NE
  50. Jeremy Hill RB CIN
  51. Greg Olsen TE CAR
  52. Jeremy Maclin WR KC
  53. Ryan Mathews RB PHI
  54. Allen Hurns WR JAC
  55. Jay Ajayi RB MIA
  56. Russell Wilson QB SEA
  57. Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
  58. Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
  59. Melvin Gordon RB SD
  60. Travis Kelce TE KC
  61. Jordan Matthews WR PHI
  62. Tom Brady QB NE
  63. Chris Ivory RB JAC
  64. Delanie Walker TE TEN
  65. Ameer Abdullah RB DET
  66. Latavius Murray RB OAK
  67. Eric Decker WR NYJ
  68. Drew Brees QB NO
  69. Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
  70. TJ Yeldon RB JAC
  71. DeVante Parker WR MIA
  72. Michael Floyd WR ARI
  73. Blake Bortles QB JAC
  74. Frank Gore RB IND
  75. Steve Smith WR BAL
  76. Giovani Bernard RB CIN
  77. Carson Palmer QB ARI
  78. Coby Fleener TE NO
  79. Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI

Who is the 1.01?

We have addressed this topic earlier this off-season, but it’s time to address it again, as we are nearing June 1. Who is the 1.01 in fantasy football heading into 2016?. Of course, much depends on your scoring, as wide receivers are surely in the conversation if we’re talking about a PPR draft. And, for the most part, dynasty and redraft usually have slightly different top five ranked players. This year, dynasty and redraft look very much the same, so it really boils down to PPR or non-PPR, which we will mention below, however, we will rank the below players as if we are talking PPR.

Todd Gurley | STL RB

Todd Gurley is the safest RB to rank at the 1.01, and because he might be heads and shoulders above the rest of the 2016 rushers (minus a few names, which we will list below), going RB over WR makes a lot of sense when Gurley is sitting there. Gurley posted 229 uards for 1,106 yards, 10TDs, and 21 receptions for 188 yards. However, he didn’t really get the start until Week 4, as he barely played Week 3. So, if you pace out his stats, he essentially was on pace for 1,462 yards, 13TDs rushing, 26 receptions for 244 yards. As a rookie! If he gets more production through the air, which I expect he will, I think he can easily drop 1,700 combine rushing/receiving yards and 12-15TDs in 2016. The thing is, he has upside for more. To me, he is the safest 1.01 in all formats, dynasty to redraft, and even in PPR… I say this because there aren’t a ton of 1.01 worthy RBs this year, however, there are up to 4-5 WRs, if not a few more, that can actually be the best fantasy WR in football this year.

All this said above, below are a handful of excellent choices for the 1.01, as there is not just one player worthy of the selection (despite Gurley feeling like the overall safest).

More 1.01-worthy players:

Julio Jones (ATL, WR) – In PPR especially, he could be the top overall scorer, so he needs to be considered. He is a top 1-3 lock in any draft. With a high first-round draft slot, that means you will likely have back-to-back, or near back-to-back, picks near the bottom of the second/early third, so RBs will be available to you later, which means going WR in the 1.01-1.04 range does not mean you will be weak at RB in 2016.

Antonio Brown (PIT, WR) – Everything said above about Julio can be said here.

Le’Veon Bell (PIT, RB) – Only his knee recovery has him not locked into the 1.01 above with Todd Gurley. If he proves 100 percent before draft day, which isn’t likely the case, as he will probably play it safe heading into Week 1, he would be absolutely tied with Gurley above.

Other players, like Odell Beckham and DeAndre Hopkins, should be talked about, but early ADPs suggest both will fall at least to the 3-5 range, meaning if you want one of these 1.01-capable studs in Beckham and Hopkins, consider trading down to the 3-5 range. Both are easily capable of being 1.01 good, though.

Wide Receivers to Doubt in 2016?

Below you will find a few big name wide receivers we caution against drafting in 2016, unless the price is right. Everything comes down to value.

Brandon Marshall | WR Jets

He is coming off a phenomenal season in 2015, posting 109 receptions for 1502 yards and 14TDs. But, he is also entering his 11th NFL season. I’ve seen him drafted as high as 9-11 for WRs, and seen him go at 15-17 for WRs. I like him in that 15-20 range, no question, but as a top 10WR, I worry about him breaking down in 2016. So, draft accordingly and let others reach based on last year’s numbers.

Alshon Jeffery | WR Bears

He always seems banged up, and his ADP is too high for our liking top 8-10WR range. If he can be drafted as a WR2, by all means, draft the guy with a smile. But, he is a risky fantasy WR1, he just is.

Kelvin Benjamin | WR Panthers

The receiver is fully expected to be ready for 2016, as he recovers from last year’s ACL tear. While he had a big 2014, pulling in 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and 9TDs, he feels a bit overrated heading into 2016 fantasy football drafts and mocks. He is sometimes ranked inside the top 15-20 receivers, and while he could post such numbers in 2016, there are a number of safer options at that higher end of 15-20 (like Jarvis Landry for example). Don’t consider Benjamin a bust candidate, we aren’t predicting bust, but don’t draft too high, and consider selling high in leagues where you already own him, as his trade value seems awesome!

Running Backs to Doubt in 2016?

Below you will find a few big name running backs we caution against drafting in 2016, unless the price is right. Everything comes down to value.

Mark Ingram | RB Saints

It’s not that we doubt the guy’s talent, as he can play like a top 10RB when fed the ball. However, his ADP is in the top 10RB range, and that’s a bit high given his injury history and the potential he doesn’t get the carries he deserves. Don’t trade him away on the cheap if you own him in dynasty, but make sure you rank him in the low, low end of the RB2s heading into 2016, this way he won’t disappoint. We’ve seen some value him as a low end RB1 and that’s risky.

CJ Anderson | RB Broncos

Not only is his lack of experience a red flag, so is his inability to stay on the field. And, with Devontae Booker, the new rookie in Denver, now on the Denver roster, Anderson ‘could’ disappoint in 2016. Again, like with Ingram above, don’t sell cheap if you already own him in dynasty, but don’t draft him in upcoming drafts expecting elite RB1 numbers. His ADP is super high and we just don’t like the value even if he is relatively talented. If you plan to roll with CJ this year, just be sure to cuff him to Booker!

Thomas Rawls | RB Seahawks

He is still equal parts sleeper and risk, so know that the potential is there. This is great for those that bought low months and months ago in dynasty. Keep him, or trade him high… but don’t sell dirt cheap. All that said, don’t go drafting him at high-end RB2 value at this point, as the Seahawks drafted two rookies that have big skill sets, one being CJ Prosise. Cuff him to Rawls if you roll with Rawls this year! If drafting today, though, I think I avoid Rawls at his current asking price. I bought low in a lot of leagues, and I’m happy about that, but values change and some players turn into risks at the going rates. This is that situation.

2016 IDP Rankings

Below you will find our early 2016 IDP Rankings for the 2016 fantasy football season.

1 J.J. Watt HOU DE
2 Luke Kuechly CAR LB
3 Lavonte David TB LB
4 Khalil Mack OAK DE
5 Telvin Smith JAC LB
6 C.J. Mosley BAL LB
7 Navorro Bowman SF LB
8 Aaron Donald LA DT
9 Bobby Wagner SEA LB
10 Alec Ogletree LA LB
11 Jamie Collins NE LB
12 Robert Quinn LA DE
13 DeAndre Levy DET LB
14 Ezekiel Ansah DET DE
15 Sean Lee DAL LB
16 Carlos Dunlap CIN DE
17 Reshad Jones MIA S
18 Muhammad Wilkerson NYJ DE
19 Calais Campbell ARI DE
20 Everson Griffen MIN DE
21 D’Qwell Jackson IND LB
22 Kiko Alonso MIA LB
23 Derrick Johnson KC LB
24 Paul Posluszny JAC LB
25 Mychal Kendricks PHI LB
26 Cameron Jordan NO DE
27 Fletcher Cox PHI DE
28 Brandon Marshall DEN LB
29 Lawrence Timmons PIT LB
30 Mario Williams MIA DE
31 Danny Trevathan CHI LB
32 Geno Atkins CIN DT
33 Kwon Alexander TB LB
34 Olivier Vernon NYG DE
35 Hasean Clinton-Dix GB S
36 Eric Kendricks MIN LB
37 Thomas Davis CAR LB
38 Landon Collins NYG S
39 Rob Ninkovich NE DE
40 Tyrann Mathieu ARI S
41 Ryan Shazier PIT LB
42 Jason Pierre-Paul NYG DE
43 Jerrell Freeman CHI LB
44 Cameron Heyward PIT DE
45 Keenan Robinson NYG LB
46 Preston Brown BUF LB
47 Stephone Anthony NO LB
48 James Laurinaitis NO LB
49 Eric Weddle BAL S
50 Demario Davis CLE LB
51 Harrison Smith MIN SS
52 Vontaze Burfict CIN LB
53 Johnathan Cyprien JAC S
54 Cameron Wake MIA DE
55 Morgan Burnett GB S
56 David Harris NYJ LB
57 Anthony Barr MIN LB
58 Ndamukong Suh MIA DT
59 Antoine Bethea SF S
60 Kam Chancellor SEA S
61 Benardrick McKinney FA LB
62 Clay Matthews GB LB
63 Barry Church DAL S
64 Von Miller DEN LB
65 Jurrell Casey TEN DT
66 Sheldon Richardson NYJ DE
67 Brian Cushing HOU LB
68 Gerald McCoy TB DT
69 Karlos Dansby CIN LB

Where to rank Ezekiel Elliott amongst 2016 running backs?

Everyone knows that Ezekiel Elliott is the top-ranked rookie heading into any 2016 rookie-only fantasy football draft. He is the top dog, no question. But, how good can he be right away? Many expect top 4-8RB numbers in time, but can he be that good in just his first season? We say yes. It’s safe to assume, that if healthy, he is going to see the kind of workload in Dallas that could have him producing 1,000-1,200 rushing yards, 25-30 receptions for 300-400 yards and near double-digit touchdowns. It’s tough to expect that out of any rookie rusher, as they often times hit a rookie wall near Weeks 11-14. However, this offensive line in Dallas is elite, and the offense will be more well-rounded than last year, so much so that even if Tony Romo misses some time here or there, the rushing game will help keep defenses honest, something that couldn’t always be said last year. Don’t draft Elliott as a top 5-8RB in 2016, as his ADP is more in the middle-to-late second-round. If you draft him higher than you need to, you limit the upside and ceiling potential and you increase the risk (should he get hurt, or struggle early on).

2016 Rookie-Only Draft (post NFL Draft)

Below is a fresh 2016 Fantasy Football Rookie-Only Expert Draft. This is a real draft amongst ‘experts’ in the fantasy football industry, so it’s an interesting take on where to slot 2016 rookies. With the NFL Draft complete, it’s time to see where the 2016 rookies fall as you prepare for your rookie-only league drafts.

Round One

1.01 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB (R)
1.02 Doctson, Josh WAS WR (R)
1.03 Treadwell, Laquon MIN WR (R)
1.04 Coleman, Corey CLE WR (R)
1.05 Shepard, Sterling NYG WR (R)
1.06 Henry, Derrick TEN RB (R)
1.07 Fuller, Will HOU WR (R)
1.08 Dixon, Kenneth BAL RB (R)
1.09 Thomas, Michael NOS WR (R)
1.10 Boyd, Tyler CIN WR (R)
1.11 Carroo, Leonte MIA WR (R)
1.12 Booker, Devontae DEN RB (R)

First-Round Observations: No shock seeign Ezekel Elliott go at the 1.01. In fact, there is no reason you should ever see another player ever drafted at the 1.01 in any upcoming rookie-only draft. I’m not suggesting that a player can’t come out of nowhere and be this year’s David Johnson, but ADPs suggest you can get a TON via trade if you don’t want Elliott for whatever reason. I think the first three receivers going right after Elliott is par for the course, as Doctson, Treadwell and Coleman have the most upside after Elliott, but keep an eye on Kenneth Dixon (1.08) and Devontae Booker (1.12). Derek Henry was a big name player heading into the 2016 NFL Draft, but his situation behind DeMarco Murray is not an attractive one heading into the next couple of years.

The Rest…

Round One

2.01 Prosise, C.J. SEA RB (R)
2.02 Howard, Jordan CHI RB (R)
2.03 Goff, Jared RAM QB (R)
2.04 Perkins, Paul NYG RB (R)
2.05 Marshall, Keith WAS RB (R)
2.06 Henry, Hunter SDC TE (R)
2.07 Thomas, Mike RAM WR (R)
2.08 Williams, Jonathan BUF RB (R)
2.09 Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR (R)
2.10 Hogan, Chris NEP WR
2.11 Hooper, Austin ATL TE (R)
2.12 Allen, Dwayne IND TE

Round One

3.01 Washington, DeAndre OAK RB (R)
3.02 Higbee, Tyler RAM TE (R)
3.03 Payton, Jordan CLE WR (R)
3.04 Drake, Kenyan MIA RB (R)
3.05 Miller, Braxton HOU WR (R)
3.06 Moore, Chris BAL WR (R)
3.07 Wentz, Carson PHI QB (R)
3.08 Cooper, Pharoh RAM WR (R)
3.09 Ervin, Tyler HOU RB (R)
3.10 Garrett, Keyarris CAR WR (R)
3.11 Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB (R)
3.12 Lynch, Paxton DEN QB (R)

Round One

4.01 Higgins, Rashard CLE WR (R)
4.02 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR
4.03 Ferguson, Josh IND RB (R)
4.04 Heuerman, Jeff DEN TE
4.05 Collins, Alex SEA RB (R)
4.06 Listenbee, Kolby BUF WR (R)
4.07 Janis, Jeff GBP WR
4.08 Quick, Brian RAM WR
4.09 Peake, Charone NYJ WR (R)
4.10 Miller, Zach CHI TE
4.11 Sharpe, Tajae TEN WR (R)
4.12 Tucker, Justin BAL PK

2016 Rookie Rankings (Post Draft)

Below are our post-draft 2016 Rookie Rankings. We still rounds 4-7 to go, so note that some of the players ranked below could jump up, or down, depending on what team drafts them, or doesn’t draft them, in rounds 4-7. An example of a guy who could jump high is Kenneth Dixon, or even Devontae Booker.

Top Fantasy Football Rankings – Post Draft

  1. Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL – He couldn’t have landed in a better spot. He has top 5RB upside for the future and possibly top 5-10 upside for 2016.
  2. Corey Coleman WR CLE – Very talented, he just needs consistent QB play, which may or may not happen in CLE.
  3. Josh Doctson WR WAS – Also very talented. Great landing spot.
  4. Laquon Treadwell WR MIN – Not elite speed wise but if he gets enough targets, which is questionable in MIN, he could develop into a solid NFL wide receiver in 2-3 years.
  5. Derrick Henry RB TEN – Horrible landing spot, as DeMarco Murray is the main man in TEN.
  6. Will Fuller WR HOU – Decent spot, but given Hopkins is a top 1-3 fantasy WR, it’s tough seeing Fuller ever becoming a stud in fantasy.
  7. Kenneth Dixon RB TBA – Hopefully he lands in a good spot in rounds 4-7. If not, he could drop on these rankings. He could also climb high if he finds a great situation. Sleeper!
  8. Carson Wentz QB PHI – Solid situation, good talent. Not sure he is ever going to be a top 5 fantasy QB, though.
  9. Jared Goff QB LA – Same thing said about Wentz goes here.
  10. Paxton Lynch QB DEN – He excites us a touch more than the other two QBs above, but he is more raw and could take longer to develop.
  11. CJ Prosise RB SEA – Not a great spot, but Rawls isn’t exactly a for sure – yet.
  12. Devontae Booker RB TBA – Could be huge if he gets drafted into the right spot in rounds 4-7, or he could drop off the map if drafted as a total backup.
  13. Alex Collins RB TBA – Where will he go? If drafted into a good spot, he jumps a ton! Sleeper!
  14. Michael Thomas WR NO – Good spot, good talent.
  15. Kenyan Drake RB MIA – Good spot, but we don’t love his upside, so this is a good thing for Jay Ajayi.
  16. Tyler Boyd WR CIN – Not elite.
  17. Sterling Shepard WR NYG – Not likely elite.
  18. Braxton Miller WR HOU – Crowded situation.
  19. Leonte Carroo WR MIA – Solid talent, but very, very crowded situation.
  20. The Rest

  21. Keith Marshall RB TBA
  22. Christian Hackenberg QB NYJ
  23. Wendell Smallwood RB TBA
  24. Deandre Washington RB TBA
  25. Hunter Henry TE SD
  26. Austin Hooper TE ATL

2016 NFL Draft Results (Round One)

Below is the entire first-round of the 2016 NFL Draft. View the draft results below, but also comment below on all of the fantasy implications! Look for our fantasy analysis to follow!

1 – Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff QB CAL
2 – Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz QB North Dakota St.
3 – San Diego Chargers: Joey Bosa DE Ohio St.
4 – Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott RB Ohio St.
5 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Jalen Ramsey CB Florida St.
6 – Baltimore Ravens: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
7 – San Francisco 49ers: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
8 – Tennessee Titans: Jack Conklin OT Michigan St.
9 – Chicago Bears: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
10 – New York Giants: Eli Apple CB Ohio St.
11 – Tampa Bay Bucs: Vernon Hargreaves III CB Florida
12 – New Orleans Saints: Sheldon Rankins DE Louisville
13 – Miami Dolphins: Laremy Tunsil OT Ole Miss
14 – Oakland Raiders: Karl Joseph S West Virginia
15 – Cleveland Browns: Corey Coleman WR Baylor
16 – Detroit Lions: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.
17 – Atlanta Falcons: Keanu Neal S Florida
18 – Indianapolis Colts: Ryan Kelly C Alabama
19 – Buffalo Bills: Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
20 – New York Jets: Darron Lee OLB Ohio St.
21 – Houston Texans: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
22 – Washington Redskins: Josh Doctson WR TCU
23 – Minnesota Vikings: Laquon Treadwell WR Ole Miss
24 – Cincinnati Bengals: William Jackson III CB Houston
25 – Pittsburgh Steelers: Artie Burns CB Miami
26 – Denver Broncos: Paxton Lynch QB Memphis
27 – Green Bay Packers: Kenny Clark DT UCLA
28 – San Francisco 49ers: Joshua Garnett G Stanford
30 – Arizona Cardinals: Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole Miss
31 – Carolina Panthers: Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
32 – Seattle Seahawks: Germain Ifedi OT Texas A&M

Bounce-Back Players for 2016

Below are a list of just a few bounce-back fantasy football candidates heading into the 2016 NFL fantasy football season. Have a few names you want to toss out? Comment below!

Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy has reportedly lost 15-18 pounds since the end of last year. Some are even suggesting that he will enter 2016 in the best shape of his life. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him, but if he can be had at RB2 value entering 2016, and currently that’s the case, he has bounce-back written all over him.

Jordy Nelson

Another Packer with bounce-back written all over him. Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit last year, as did the Packers, and one reason is that Rodgers lost Jordy. Jordy is always underrated, but coming off injury, he is more likely to get overlooked than ever. Buy-low, at least until his ADP climbs back into stud range, and it may. Once it does, then he is a tad risky and the appeal is somewhat lost.

Andrew Luck

Most expect a bounce-back, but given that he and Aaron Rodgers both struggled last year, and now with Brady again looking at a 4-game suspension, QBs might fall further than they should in 2016. Take advantage, as Luck (and Rodgers) both have top 10 overall value, it’s just that QBs are waited on in almost every veteran fantasy football draft. At 3rd- and 4th-round value, we say don’t wait, be the one to snag either QB.

Jamaal Charles

He should bounce-back from injury nicely, for at least one season. Don’t spend a top 5RB pick on him, but if you can get him near 2nd-round value, or particularly at 2nd-round value, strike!

DeMarco Murray

Risky, sure, especially with a new team (TEN); however, he is still top 5-10RB skilled, and TEN wanted him, which is a change from his situation in PHI last year. His ADP is in the 3rd/4th, so the risk is very low, whereas the reward is 1st-round possible.