Author Archive for Starters

Dana’s Corner (Fantasy Football 2016)

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I enjoy reading Gil Bandt’’s takes on NFL players. This week he has provided us with his predicted stat leaders for 2016. I can’’t really put up an argument with his choices. I had the honor of meeting him in Las Vegas one year and shared some good conversation, a very intuitive and respected man.

Passing Yards

Drew Brees – – I can see that, no more Peyton, Brady on the back burner, I can’t say if Carson Palmer garnered any thoughts that figured into his assessment?

Passing TD’s

Eli Manning

Plausible Rushing Yards

Adrian Peterson – – has not shown signs of slowing down though he is at that age where the running backs begin to taper off, many often wondered if this guy is even human?

Rushing TD’s

–
Jeremy Hill – That is interesting, I have Hill projected at 9 Touch downs on the year. Julio will lead the league in receiving yards and Allen Robinson will receive the most receiving touch downs SACKS, Khalil Mack –This guy is a force to be reckoned with. I believe the Raiders will surprise the masses this year- Does anybody want to see a Jaguars/Raiders AFC Championship game? Now this one made me smile and nod, Gil’s prediction for most tackles will go to a Dallas Cowboy (of Course) Can’’t have Brandt write anything that does not include a Dallas Cowboy.

His prediction for 2016 Leading Tackles: Sean Lee, with the current state of the Cowboys defensive front I can believe that, this is one LB I believe is going to get worked into the ground and I have to wonder if he will even make it to week 8.

Good Luck Guy’s!

Le’Veon Bell where do you rank him?

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Written By Dana

Is LeVeon Bell worth the risk in 2016?

There is no doubting his skill set, Bell has proven he is an elite running back in the NFL and that he should be ranked at the top of all Fantasy football draft sheets. Bell has played 35 games in his NFL career and has averaged 18.4 attempts a game at 4.3 yards per carry, over the course of a 16 game season that will equate to 1,260 yards on 294 carries- Those are pretty solid numbers, numbers I would like to have anchor my RB corp. There is good news and there is bad news, the good; there was no ACL damage with only the MCL and PCL needing repair. The bad news is missing the mandated drug testing this is a concern to me, the way I see it? Professional athletes have to stay on top of their game, they work hard and when a running back in the National Football League blows out a knee it takes even more hard work, time is short so you will do whatever it takes to get back onto the field and not miss a beat and quite often desperate times require desperate measures. With all the news of HGH swirling around it is hard to imagine that like many other NFL players they try to hide, mask or circumvent the system to remain the best they can be. Now whether or not Bell is healthy enough to be cleared to practice when camp opens remains to be seen and now maybe facing suspension, perhaps this will provide more healing time? Until I see Bell in camp I will remain skeptical that Bell can come out on fire and meet or exceed his career average numbers. If Bell is suspended say 4 games and he indeed performs to his average then you are still taking away 74 attempts 316 yards leaving him with a generous 220 attempts and 944 yards for the season.
Current projection 220 attempts 946 yards 5 TD 58 rec 634 yards 1 TD.

Conclusion

Personally I do not believe he will attain these numbers, so now where does he rank in your fantasy football projections? If you still want to drop a first round pick on Bell it may be in your team’s best interest to tab DeAngelo Williams next and early before another savvy owner pulls the rug out from under you. Fantasyfootballstarters Draft Analyzer has Bell coming in #9 overall.

ADP (Average Draft Positions) Update – July

As we do every month, we have compiled some ADP from some of the more trusted ADP sources on the web.

Undervalued

At a glance, you have to love the ADP values of: Devonta Freeman (17), Amari Cooper (22), Aaron Rodgers (32), Andrew Luck (48), Jeremy Langford (45), Blake Bortles (83)

Overvalued

You have to be cautious with players ranking too high, like: Eddie Lacy (18), Thomas Rawls (28), Kelvin Benjamin (31), Latavius Murray (38)

1 Antonio Brown WR PIT
2 Todd Gurley RB LA
4 Julio Jones WR ATL
3 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
5 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
6 David Johnson RB ARI
7 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
8 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
9 A.J. Green WR CIN
11 Lamar Miller RB HOU
12 Dez Bryant WR DAL
13 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
10 LeVeon Bell RB PIT
16 Allen Robinson WR JAC
14 Jamaal Charles RB KC
17 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
15 Jordy Nelson WR GB
18 Eddie Lacy RB GB
19 Keenan Allen WR SD
20 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI
21 Mike Evans WR TB
22 Amari Cooper WR OAK
23 Doug Martin RB TB
25 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
24 Mark Ingram RB NO
26 Brandin Cooks WR NO
27 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ
28 Thomas Rawls RB SEA
29 Cam Newton QB CAR
31 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR
30 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
32 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
33 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
34 Matt Forte RB NYJ
36 CJ Anderson RB DEN
35 Sammy Watkins WR BUF
37 Randall Cobb WR GB
39 Carlos Hyde RB SF
40 Jarvis Landry WR MIA
41 Julian Edelman WR NE
42 DeMarco Murray RB TEN
43 Jordan Reed TE WAS
44 Golden Tate WR DET
45 Jeremy Langford RB CHI
48 Andrew Luck QB IND
46 Dion Lewis RB NE
47 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
38 Latavius Murray RB OAK
49 Matt Jones RB WAS
51 Russell Wilson QB SEA
50 Jeremy Maclin WR KC
53 Ryan Mathews RB PHI
52 Greg Olsen TE CAR
54 Michael Floyd WR ARI
55 Jeremy Hill RB CIN
57 Donte Moncrief WR IND
58 Allen Hurns WR JAC
56 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR
59 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
60 Drew Brees QB NO
61 Jay Ajayi RB MIA
62 Eric Decker WR NYJ
65 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
64 Frank Gore RB IND
66 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
67 Ameer Abdullah RB DET
68 Tyler Eifert TE CIN
63 Chris Ivory RB JAC
69 Melvin Gordon RB SD
70 Jordan Matthews WR PHI
72 Travis Kelce TE KC
73 Duke Johnson RB CLE
74 DeVante Parker WR MIA
75 Giovani Bernard RB CIN
76 DeAngelo Williams RB PIT
77 John Brown WR ARI
78 Delanie Walker TE TEN
71 Tom Brady QB NE
79 Tyler Lockett WR SEA
80 Carson Palmer QB ARI
81 Justin Forsett RB BAL
82 Danny Woodhead RB SD
83 Blake Bortles QB JAC
84 Coby Fleener TE NO
85 Arian Foster RB HOU
86 Kevin White WR CHI
87 DeSean Jackson WR WAS
88 Rashad Jennings RB NYG
89 Michael Crabtree WR OAK
90 Ladarius Green TE PIT
91 TJ Yeldon RB JAC
92 Eli Manning QB NYG
93 Marvin Jones WR DET
94 Tevin Coleman RB ATL
95 Derrick Henry RB TEN
96 Gary Barnidge TE CLE
97 Sterling Shepard WR NYG
98 Philip Rivers QB SD
99 Charles Sims RB TB
100 Markus Wheaton WR PIT
101 Julius Thomas TE JAC
102 Denver Defense DEF DEN
103 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
104 Derek Carr QB OAK
105 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE
106 Corey Coleman WR CLE
107 Arizona Defense DEF ARI
108 Steve Smith WR BAL
109 Torrey Smith WR SF

What to do with Josh Gordon?

For those of you that don’t know, Josh Gordon (WR – Browns) has been reinstated by the NFL (but suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season), and the Browns have made it pretty clear, via several reports, that they will welcome him back with open arms. They will most likely have him on a short leash, no question, and one minor issue and he could be done in the NFL for good. Still, there is no denying the fact that the wide receiver has top 10WR upside, if not top 5WR upside, if healthy, on the field and trusted by his offense. It’s tough not to get excited, but it’s smart to play this right in early drafts and not reach too far for him. However, it’s important not to overlook him either. So, in redraft leagues, where do you take the guy? I would definitely shy away from grabbing him as a WR2, because you just won’t likely need to snag him at that value (yet). So, he makes for a risky WR3, and that still gives you plenty of upside, as again, he can be a fantasy WR1 if everything lines up. So, let’s take a look at the areas where Josh Gordon is worth the risk (at this very moment, and that could change in either direction in the coming weeks, so we will surely readdress this topic soon!):

4th-8th Round WR ADPs

Red = Don’t draft Gordon yet
Green = Gordon is likely worth the risk

4th Doug Baldwin WR SEA
5th Jeremy Maclin WR KC
5th Allen Hurns WR JAC
5-6th Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
6th Jordan Matthews WR PHI
7th Michael Floyd WR ARI
6-7th Donte Moncrief WR IND
6-7th Eric Decker WR NYJ
6-7th Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
6-7th DeVante Parker WR MIA
7th John Brown WR ARI
7-8th Kevin White WR CHI

As you can see, there is a place just before the Moncrief and Decker types that feels consistent and safe, but right where you see the players turn red, you have to admit that the upside of those players just doesn’t sniff the upside of Gordon’s, which means it’s time to strike in those areas. Again, I can’t stress this enough, this could change as his ADP climbs, or falls. If he keeps his head on straight and Cleveland appears to want him back in his old WR1 role, expect his ADP to possibly climb even higher than the 6th-round, and when that time comes, we might agree with wanting to take him higher than that. For now, though, after the medium name WRs are off the board, that seems to be the safe spot.

Is Ezekiel Elliott a top 5RB already?

Our Draft Analyzer already has Ezekiel Elliott ranked inside the top 5RBs for 2016 (depending on your entered scoring). Is this premature? Is there too much risk counting on the runner at top 5RB value?

I say he is worth top 5-10RB consideration, no question. I caution anyone to rank him ahead of the big three RBs, LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and David Johnson, but after those big guns, there are a grip of RBs that warrant that 4th rank. Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, there are a handful of running backs worth ranking in that 4th spot, and Elliott has just as much 2016 upside as any of those players. Word out of Dallas is that the rookie could see 300 carries in 2016, and while that is a bit concerning for his dynasty value, as it could wear him down, it’s fantastic news for redraft leaguers who plan to own Zeke. He is in a potent offense behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, and while Tony Romo has had trouble staying healthy over the last couple of years, that Dallas passing game, led by Dez Bryant, will make stacking the box against Elliott extremely tough. Elliott, if healthy, should easily earn top 5-10RB numbers. He could bounce around even higher than that from time to time.

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Demaryius Thomas to decline in 2016?

If you own Demaryius Thomas in dynasty, it might be time to trade him. If you play in redraft, unless the price is right, it might be time to start avoiding him. DT use to be a second-round fantasy talent, and while it’s always possible he still cranks out that kind of production in 2016, he has a miserable QB situation in 2016 (Mark Sanchez, or overwhelmed rookie Paxton Lynch), he is 28 years old (turning 29 in December) and the team might plan to run more than ever in 2016. In dynasty, I wouldn’t suggest that anyone sell so low you are trading him in for a 6th- or 7th-round WR talent, but you might be able to get crafty and do a straight one-for-one swap for an underrated TY Hilton. Hilton is 26 and has a top 1-3 passer throwing him the football… this is the kind of ‘downgrade’ that seems feasible trade-wise, given the trade market values of both players, and it’s a great way to rebuild and plan for the future. And, in redraft, the two, Thomas and Hilton, have just about the exact ADP, so consider drafting a Hilton-type before you draft DT.

Note: The Draft Analyzer agrees with this doubting of DT, as it has the WR roughly ranked around 18-21 heading into 2016.

Other names to consider over Demaryius Thomas, regardless of position:

  • Jarvis Landry MIA
  • Jeremy Langford CHI RB
  • Andrew Luck IND QB
  • Aaron Rodgers GB QB

Smitty’s 2016 Rankings Cheat Sheet

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Here at STARTERS, the famous Draft Analyzer is key to helping you create custom Cheat Sheets for your draft. The tool factors in projections, previous year’s stats, trending, etc, so be sure to use it when getting ready for your draft. However, last year I created my own stand-alone set of Rankings, and while they might differ from the Draft Analyzer here and there, I think it’s important to take a bit of variation with you to your draft! So enjoy, this is my personal set of 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings.

Smitty’s 2016 Redraft Rankings

Updated: 7/11/16

QBs

1 Aaron Rodgers GB
2 Andrew Luck IND
3 Blake Bortles JAC
4 Cam Newton CAR
5 Russell Wilson SEA
6 Drew Brees NO
7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT
8 Carson Palmer ARI
9 Tom Brady NE
10 Derek Carr OAK
11 Eli Manning NYG
12 Philip Rivers SD
13 Tony Romo DAL
14 Kirk Cousins WAS
15 Marcus Mariota TEN
16 Jameis Winston TB
17 Andy Dalton CIN
18 Tyrod Taylor BUF
19 Matt Ryan ATL
20 Matthew Stafford DET
21 Ryan Tannehill MIA
22 Robert Griffin CLE
23 Jay Cutler CHI
24 Joe Flacco BAL
25 Alex Smith KC
26 Ryan Fitzpatrick FA
27 Brock Osweiler HOU
28 Teddy Bridgewater MIN
29 Colin Kaepernick SF
30 Sam Bradford PHI
31 Geno Smith NYJ
32 Blaine Gabbert SF
33 Jared Goff LA
34 Paxton Lynch DEN
35 Mark Sanchez DEN
36 Nick Foles LA
37 Josh McCown CLE
38 Jimmy Garoppolo NE
39 Carson Wentz PHI

TEs

1 Rob Gronkowski NE
2 Jordan Reed WAS
3 Greg Olsen CAR
4 Travis Kelce KC
5 Delanie Walker TEN
6 Coby Fleener NO
7 Tyler Eifert CIN
8 Gary Barnidge CLE
9 Ladarius Green PIT
10 Julius Thomas JAC
11 Zach Ertz PHI
12 Antonio Gates SD
13 Eric Ebron DET
14 Dwayne Allen IND
15 Jimmy Graham SEA
16 Martellus Bennett NE
17 Zach Miller CHI
18 Jason Witten DAL
19 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
20 Jordan Cameron MIA
21 Charles Clay BUF
22 Jared Cook GB
23 Kyle Rudolph MIN
24 Clive Walford OAK
25 Will Tye NYG
26 Vance McDonald SF
27 Austin Hooper ATL
28 Richard Rodgers GB
29 Benjamin Watson BAL
30 Lance Kendricks LA
31 Cameron Brate TB
32 Jacob Tamme ATL
33 Hunter Henry SD
34 Larry Donnell NYG
35 Jace Amaro NYJ
36 Josh Hill NO
37 Maxx Williams BAL
38 Brent Celek PHI

RBs

1 Todd Gurley LA
2 Le’Veon Bell PIT
3 David Johnson ARI
4 Devonta Freeman ATL
5 Adrian Peterson MIN
6 Ezekiel Elliott DAL
7 Lamar Miller HOU
8 Jamaal Charles KC
9 Doug Martin TB
10 Jeremy Langford CHI
11 Matt Forte NYJ
12 Mark Ingram NO
13 LeSean McCoy BUF
14 C.J. Anderson DEN
15 Eddie Lacy GB
16 Carlos Hyde SF
17 DeMarco Murray TEN
18 Thomas Rawls SEA
19 Jay Ajayi MIA
20 Dion Lewis NE
21 Ryan Mathews PHI
22 Jeremy Hill CIN
23 Melvin Gordon SD
24 Matt Jones WAS
25 Ameer Abdullah DET
26 Giovani Bernard CIN
27 Latavius Murray OAK
28 Duke Johnson CLE
29 Josh Ferguson IND
30 Frank Gore IND
31 Arian Foster FA
32 Jonathan Stewart CAR
33 Danny Woodhead SD
34 Kenneth Dixon BAL
35 Chris Ivory JAC
36 T.J. Yeldon JAC
37 Karlos Williams BUF
38 Isaiah Crowell CLE
39 Charles Sims TB
40 Rashad Jennings NYG
41 Justin Forsett BAL
42 Derrick Henry TEN
43 LeGarrette Blount NE
44 Tevin Coleman ATL
45 Theo Riddick DET
46 C.J. Prosise SEA
47 Jordan Howard CHI
48 Javorius Allen BAL
49 DeAngelo Williams PIT
50 Bilal Powell NYJ
51 Shane Vereen NYG
52 Paul Perkins NYG
53 Darren McFadden DAL
54 Devontae Booker DEN
55 DeAndre Washington OAK
56 Chris Johnson ARI
57 James Starks GB
58 Chris Thompson WAS
59 Darren Sproles PHI
60 Kenyan Drake MIA
61 Tim Hightower NO
62 Charcandrick West KC
63 Ronnie Hillman DEN

WRs

1 Antonio Brown PIT
2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU
3 Julio Jones ATL
4 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
5 Dez Bryant DAL
6 Amari Cooper OAK
7 Allen Robinson JAC
8 A.J. Green CIN
9 Mike Evans TB
10 Alshon Jeffery CHI
11 Jarvis Landry MIA
12 Jordy Nelson GB
13 Demaryius Thomas DEN
14 T.Y. Hilton IND
15 Keenan Allen SD
16 Brandon Marshall NYJ
17 Brandin Cooks NO
18 Sammy Watkins BUF
19 Randall Cobb GB
20 Allen Hurns JAC
21 Jordan Matthews PHI
22 Kelvin Benjamin CAR
23 Jeremy Maclin KC
24 Julian Edelman NE
25 Golden Tate DET
26 Doug Baldwin SEA
27 Eric Decker NYJ
28 Michael Floyd ARI
29 Larry Fitzgerald ARI
30 Emmanuel Sanders DEN
31 John Brown ARI
32 Tyler Lockett SEA
33 Devante Parker MIA
34 Donte Moncrief IND
35 DeSean Jackson WAS
36 Michael Crabtree OAK
37 Marvin Jones DET
38 Kevin White CHI
39 Corey Coleman CLE
40 Willie Snead NO
41 Torrey Smith SF
42 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN
43 Laquon Treadwell MIN
44 Sterling Shepard NYG
45 Markus Wheaton PIT
46 Vincent Jackson TB
47 Steve Smith BAL
48 Travis Benjamin SD
49 Stefon Diggs MIN
50 Tavon Austin LA
51 Kamar Aiken BAL
52 Michael Thomas NO
53 Josh Doctson WAS
54 Kendall Wright TEN
55 Mohamed Sanu ATL
56 Devin Funchess CAR
57 Phillip Dorsett IND
58 Breshad Perriman BAL
59 Josh Gordon CLE
60 Mike Wallace BAL
61 Terrance Williams DAL
62 Rishard Matthews TEN
63 Pierre Garcon WAS
64 Nelson Agholor PHI
65 Chris Hogan NE
66 Sammie Coates PIT
67 Jeff Janis GB

Analyzers powered by Dana/historical data!

For those of you that are relatively new to STARTERS, we wanted to take a quick second to introduce you to Dana, the man behind the data entry process that powers the famous STARTERS Analyzers.

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Dana is a co-founder of STARTERS, so he’s been around from the start. He is a diehard fantasy football fan and been in the business since roughly 2004. Dana’s projections are just a piece of what powers the STARTERS Analyzers. While we don’t want to give away all of our secrets, the Analyzers are powerful, and they factor in all kinds of historical data, strength of schedules, injury concerns, and more.

As the weeks move on, we will be addressing certain players that the Analyzers have ranked really high and really low. So, look for write-ups on that topic, they will publish weekly as we knock through that list of outliers.

Two Upside Board Predictions Just Added

ffs-upsideboardLooking for 2016 Upside Board predictions? We have you covered. We have already added the first two players to the list for the 2016 fantasy football season. Check them out now!
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The 2016 Draft Analyzer and Cheat Sheets are ready!

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It’s that time! Yep, the 2016 Draft Analyzer is ready, which means you can now start creating your custom Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets for all of your leagues!

Like every year, the Draft Analyzer identifies a lot of players that are likely to outperform expectations, as the tool is driven by data trending, projections, injury concerns, and more. We will be breaking down some of the high-rankings players each week, starting with the Wide Receivers. So, start creating those 2016 Cheat Sheets, and also read our first write-up on the high-ranking players that the Analyzer is calling big seasons for:

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Read: Draft Analyzer WRs That Rank High